Domino's Pizza has missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and confirmed a technical death cross, while carrying material supply concentration risk from a single domestic cheese supplier; the 15% gap to analyst consensus and a recovery-stage technical pattern suggest a rebound is possible if execution stabilizes, but the burden of proof sits firmly with management.
Thesis pillars
- Supply Chain Concentration Risk→Stable
- Earnings Miss Streak→Stable
- Death Cross Technical Downtrend→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $307.72: Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. pizza cheese supplier; Concentration risk — Supplier: Coca-Cola.
Domino's is the largest pizza company by store count with more than 22,100 locations in over 90 markets as of December 28, 2025, with approximately 99% of stores franchised. It generates revenue through franchise royalties (5.5% of sales), supply chain sales to franchisees... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $307.72: Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. pizza cheese supplier; Concentration risk — Supplier: Coca-Cola. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 17d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Domino's Pizza Inc
Latest news
- NEWS What Analyst Projections for Key Metrics Reveal About Domino's Pizza (DPZ) Q1 Earnings - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Should You Buy, Sell or Hold DPZ Stock Before the Q1 Earnings Release? - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Should You Buy, Sell or Hold DPZ Stock Before the Q1 Earnings Release? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Traditional Fast Food Stocks Q4 Teardown: Domino's (NASDAQ:DPZ) Vs The Rest - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS DPZ Maintains Equal-Weight Rating by Morgan Stanley -- Price Tar - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliersingle U.S. pizza cheese supplier10-K Item 1: 'We currently purchase our U.S. pizza cheese from a single supplier'
- MEDIUMSuppliersingle U.S. meat toppings supplier10-K Item 1: 'The majority of our meat toppings in the U.S. come from a single supplier'
- HIGHSupplierCoca-Cola10-K Item 1: 'provides for Coca-Cola to continue to be our exclusive beverage supplier'
- HIGHProductsupply chain segment61%10-K Item 1: 'our supply chain segment accounted for $2.99 billion, or 60.5%, of our consolidated revenues'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-27Item 5.02LOWOn April 21, 2026, Brian J. Pangburn was appointed VP-Controller and principal accounting officer of Domino's Pizza. Jessica L. Parrish ceased as principal accounting officer but continues in a different finance leadership role. No reason cited for the transition.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $307.72: Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. pizza cheese supplier; Concentration risk — Supplier: Coca-Cola. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Prior stop was $290.44. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $359.22 (+15.3% upside). Prior stop was $290.44. Stop-loss: $290.44.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. pizza cheese supplier; Concentration risk — Supplier: Coca-Cola; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Domino's Pizza Inc trades at a P/E of 18.0 (forward 14.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
37 analysts cover DPZ with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $399.
What does Domino's Pizza Inc do?Domino's is the largest pizza company by store count with more than 22,100 locations in over 90 markets as of December...
Domino's is the largest pizza company by store count with more than 22,100 locations in over 90 markets as of December 28, 2025, with approximately 99% of stores franchised. It generates revenue through franchise royalties (5.5% of sales), supply chain sales to franchisees ($2.99 billion or 60.5% of 2025 revenues), and Company-owned store sales.