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Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $332.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak overall score: 5.0/10.

Domino's Pizza is the largest pizza company globally with 22,100+ locations in 90+ markets; approximately 99% of stores are franchised as of December 28, 2025. Revenue is generated from franchise royalties, supply chain sales to U.S. and Canadian franchisees, and Company-owned... Read more

$332.00+14.9% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#12 of 20 Restaurants
Stop $316.74Target $381.71(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 2.4:1
Analyst target$414.90+25.0%31 analysts
$381.71our TP
$332.00price
$414.90mean
$544

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $332.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak overall score: 5.0/10. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 24, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Weak overall score: 5.0/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.1
P/E (Fwd)15.8
Mkt Cap$11.1B
EV/EBITDA15.6
Profit Mgn11.9%
ROE
Rev Growth3.5%
Beta1.19
Dividend2.40%
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.53bullish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$640+92.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCommoditycheese25%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Cheese, in particular, is a significant cost to us, representing approximately 25% of the food basket purchased by our Company-owned stores'
  • MEDIUMSupplierpizza cheese and meat toppings
    10-K Item 1A: 'we have single suppliers or a limited number of suppliers for certain of our ingredients, including pizza cheese and meat toppings'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02LOW
    Director James A. Goldman informed Domino's on February 18, 2026 that he will retire and not stand for reelection at the 2026 Annual Meeting after 15+ years of service. No disagreement cited. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.1
Revenue Growth
3.4

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Volume
7.2
Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Moderate
RSI
24 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $326.54Resistance $382.13

Price Targets

$317
$382
A.Upside+15.0%
A.R:R2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-20 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DPZ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $332.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak overall score: 5.0/10. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 24, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $316.74. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DPZ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $381.71 (+14.9% upside). Prior stop was $316.74. Stop-loss: $316.74.

What are the risks of investing in DPZ?

Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth.

Is DPZ overvalued or undervalued?

Domino's Pizza Inc trades at a P/E of 19.1 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DPZ?

39 analysts cover DPZ with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $415.

What does Domino's Pizza Inc do?Domino's Pizza is the largest pizza company globally with 22,100+ locations in 90+ markets; approximately 99% of stores...

Domino's Pizza is the largest pizza company globally with 22,100+ locations in 90+ markets; approximately 99% of stores are franchised as of December 28, 2025. Revenue is generated from franchise royalties, supply chain sales to U.S. and Canadian franchisees, and Company-owned stores. Cheese represents approximately 25% of the food basket for Company-owned stores.

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