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Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $307.86 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. pizza cheese supplier; Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. meat toppings supplier.

Domino's Pizza is the largest pizza company globally with 22,100+ locations in 90+ markets, operating as a franchisor (99% of stores franchised) with three segments: U.S. stores (32.6%), international franchise (6.9%), and supply chain (60.5%). Revenue is earned via royalties,... Read more

$307.86+21.3% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#17 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.12%
IncomeYield2.58%(5y avg 1.23%)Payout41.51%sustainable
Stop $288.56Target $373.61(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 3.1:1
Analyst target$406.10+31.9%30 analysts
$373.61our TP
$307.86price
$406.10mean
$544

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $307.86 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. pizza cheese supplier; Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. meat toppings supplier. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Domino's Pizza Inc

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Analyst upside: 21%
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. pizza cheese supplier
Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. meat toppings supplier
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.7
P/E (Fwd)14.7
Mkt Cap$10.2B
EV/EBITDA14.8
Profit Mgn11.9%
ROE
Rev Growth3.5%
Beta1.02
Dividend2.58%
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.69bearish
IV40%normal
Max Pain$480+55.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersingle U.S. pizza cheese supplier
    10-K Item 1: 'We currently purchase our U.S. pizza cheese from a single supplier. Under our December 2024 agreement which expires in December 2029'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle U.S. meat toppings supplier
    10-K Item 1: 'The majority of our meat toppings in the U.S. come from a single supplier under a contract which was renegotiated in December 2025 and expires at the end of December 2027'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-27Item 5.02LOW
    Brian J. Pangburn appointed VP-Controller as principal accounting officer effective April 21, 2026. Prior CAO Jessica Parrish transitions to different finance leadership role and continues as VP. No departure.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02LOW
    James A. Goldman retiring from Board after 15+ years; will not stand for reelection at 2026 Annual Meeting. No disagreement with Company cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.8
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.1
Revenue Growth
3.4
GatesMomentum 1.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $297.48Resistance $375.42

Price Targets

$289
$374
A.Upside+21.4%
A.R:R3.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-20 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DPZ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $307.86 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. pizza cheese supplier; Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. meat toppings supplier. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $288.56. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the DPZ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $373.61 (+21.3% upside). Prior stop was $288.56. Stop-loss: $288.56.

What are the risks of investing in DPZ?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. pizza cheese supplier; Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. meat toppings supplier; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is DPZ overvalued or undervalued?

Domino's Pizza Inc trades at a P/E of 17.7 (forward 14.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DPZ?

39 analysts cover DPZ with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $406.

What does Domino's Pizza Inc do?Domino's Pizza is the largest pizza company globally with 22,100+ locations in 90+ markets, operating as a franchisor...

Domino's Pizza is the largest pizza company globally with 22,100+ locations in 90+ markets, operating as a franchisor (99% of stores franchised) with three segments: U.S. stores (32.6%), international franchise (6.9%), and supply chain (60.5%). Revenue is earned via royalties, fees, and supply chain sales; the company processes 85%+ of U.S. retail sales through digital channels.

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