Domino's Pizza has missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and confirmed a technical death cross, while carrying material supply concentration risk from a single domestic cheese supplier; the 15% gap to analyst consensus and a recovery-stage technical pattern suggest a rebound is possible if execution stabilizes, but the burden of proof sits firmly with management.
Thesis pillars
- Supply Chain Concentration Risk↑Improving
- Earnings Miss Streak→Stable
- Death Cross Technical Downtrend↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 23, 2026· older than 90 days
Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. At $340.69, A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. pizza cheese supplier; Concentration risk — Supplier: Coca-Cola.
Domino's is the largest pizza company by store count with more than 22,100 locations in over 90 markets as of December 28, 2025, with approximately 99% of stores franchised. It generates revenue through franchise royalties (5.5% of sales), supply chain sales to franchisees... Read more
Sell if holding. At $340.69, A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. pizza cheese supplier; Concentration risk — Supplier: Coca-Cola. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 109d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — Domino's Pizza Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Chord Acquires Zenlytic, Expanding Enterprise AI Customer Base — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Domino's Lowers Fiscal 2026 Growth Outlook Amid Franchisee and International Challenges — fiscal.ai Oct 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS DPZ Stock Risks Ending Two-Week Rally: Domino’s CEO Flags ‘Items Per Order’ Pressure Amid Slowing Q3 Growth - TradingVie — TradingView Oct 14, 2026 negative
- NEWS Domino's Pizza (DPZ) Stock May Be Near Fair Value As Q3 Beat Lands - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 14, 2026 positive
- NEWS Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ) Stock Down 4.8% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 72/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 13, 2026 negative
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:49:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliersingle U.S. pizza cheese supplier10-K Item 1: 'We currently purchase our U.S. pizza cheese from a single supplier'
- MEDIUMSuppliersingle U.S. meat toppings supplier10-K Item 1: 'The majority of our meat toppings in the U.S. come from a single supplier'
- HIGHSupplierCoca-Cola10-K Item 1: 'provides for Coca-Cola to continue to be our exclusive beverage supplier'
- HIGHProductsupply chain segment61%10-K Item 1: 'our supply chain segment accounted for $2.99 billion, or 60.5%, of our consolidated revenues'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-27Item 5.02LOWOn April 21, 2026, Brian J. Pangburn was appointed VP-Controller and principal accounting officer of Domino's Pizza. Jessica L. Parrish ceased as principal accounting officer but continues in a different finance leadership role. No reason cited for the transition.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $340.69, A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. pizza cheese supplier; Concentration risk — Supplier: Coca-Cola. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77. Prior stop was $322.65. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $320.83 reached (−5.8% from $340.69); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $322.65. Stop-loss: $322.65.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. pizza cheese supplier; Concentration risk — Supplier: Coca-Cola; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Domino's Pizza Inc trades at a P/E of 18.8 (forward 16.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
36 analysts rate DPZ, with a consensus score of 3.6/5. 27 analysts publish price targets averaging $356.
What does Domino's Pizza Inc do?Domino's is the largest pizza company by store count with more than 22,100 locations in over 90 markets as of December...
Domino's is the largest pizza company by store count with more than 22,100 locations in over 90 markets as of December 28, 2025, with approximately 99% of stores franchised. It generates revenue through franchise royalties (5.5% of sales), supply chain sales to franchisees ($2.99 billion or 60.5% of 2025 revenues), and Company-owned store sales.