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DKSDick's Sporting Goods IncSell5.7·$201.97-0.14%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Three consecutive earnings beats were followed by a miss in the most recent quarter, and while the business is the industry growth leader with 63% revenue growth year-over-year, free cash flow is negative, the stock is just below the analyst consensus target with only about 2% upside remaining, and the risk/reward ratio of 0.3-to-1 tilts firmly unfavorable — a setup that favors patience over new exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Thin Upside Unfavorable Risk RewardStable
  • Industry Leading Revenue GrowthStable
  • Earnings Streak InterruptedImproving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Dick's Sporting Goods Inc (DKS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $201.97 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Below 200-day MA.

Dick's Sporting Goods operates DICK'S Sporting Goods, Golf Galaxy, Going Going Gone!, Public Lands, and Foot Locker banners (acquired September 2025) across the US and internationally, selling sports equipment, apparel, and footwear. Nike represents approximately 31% of... Read more

$201.97+11.9% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#13 of 24 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-2.97%
IncomeYield2.47%(5y avg 2.03%)Payout47.59%sustainable
Stop $189.32Target $225.94(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$251.05+24.3%22 analysts
$225.94our TP
$201.97price
$251.05mean
$169
$300

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $201.97 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, news boost analyst cluster(8), semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 25, 202610d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Recent Analyst Cluster(8) detected in news
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.7
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$18.1B
EV/EBITDA11.2
Profit Mgn4.7%
ROE20.9%
Rev Growth62.7%
Beta1.19
Dividend2.47%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.05bearish
IV54%elevated
Max Pain$130-35.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierNike
    10-K Item 1: 'Nike, our largest vendor, representing approximately 31% of our consolidated merchandise purchases'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 10d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(8)SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $195.18Resistance $220.36

Price Targets

$189
$226
A.Upside+11.9%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-25 (10d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DKS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $201.97 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $189.32. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DKS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $225.94 (+11.9% upside). Prior stop was $189.32. Stop-loss: $189.32.

What are the risks of investing in DKS?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Below 200-day MA.

Is DKS overvalued or undervalued?

Dick's Sporting Goods Inc trades at a P/E of 19.7 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DKS?

31 analysts cover DKS with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $251.

What does Dick's Sporting Goods Inc do?Dick's Sporting Goods operates DICK'S Sporting Goods, Golf Galaxy, Going Going Gone!, Public Lands, and Foot Locker...

Dick's Sporting Goods operates DICK'S Sporting Goods, Golf Galaxy, Going Going Gone!, Public Lands, and Foot Locker banners (acquired September 2025) across the US and internationally, selling sports equipment, apparel, and footwear. Nike represents approximately 31% of consolidated merchandise purchases; no other vendor exceeded 10%. The ScoreCard loyalty program's 30 million members account for over 75% of DICK'S Business sales.

Related stocks: MNSO (MINISO Group Holding Limited) · FIVE (Five Below, Inc.) · MUSA (Murphy USA Inc.) · BBWI (Bath & Body Works, Inc.) · ASO (Academy Sports and Outdoors, In)
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