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CSXCSX CorporationSell5.5·$48.85+1.08%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

CSX operates with strong operating leverage — 22% net margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 — and has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but the stock is trading above its take-profit resistance level with an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio, leaving little justification for new capital at current prices.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Operating ProfitabilityStable
  • Consistent Earnings Beat RecordStable
  • Price Above Take Profit TargetStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

CSX Corporation (CSX) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Railroads

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.85 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.7% away).

The Company provides rail-based freight transportation services including traditional rail service, the transport of intermodal containers and trailers, as well as other transportation services such as rail-to-truck transfers and bulk commodity operations. CSX and the rail... Read more

$48.85-1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#2 of 9 Railroads
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.24%
IncomeYield1.15%(5y avg 1.31%)Payout32.52%sustainable
Stop $46.91Target $48.23(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$47.20-3.4%22 analysts
$48.23our TP
$48.85price
$47.20mean
$30
$55

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.85 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.7% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 18d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202618d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.7% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.0
P/E (Fwd)22.4
Mkt Cap$90.8B
EV/EBITDA16.5
Profit Mgn21.6%
ROE23.7%
Rev Growth1.7%
Beta1.21
Dividend1.15%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.30bullish
IV51%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-14Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On May 14, 2026, CSX Corporation (the "Company" or "CSX") announced the separation from employment of Stephen Fortune, Executive Vice President and Chief Digital & Technology Officer of the Company, effective immediately.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.8
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 18d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $45.15Resistance $49.21

Price Targets

$47
$48
A.Upside-1.3%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (18d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CSX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.85 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.7% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $46.91. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CSX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $48.23 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $46.91. Stop-loss: $46.91.

What are the risks of investing in CSX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.7% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Is CSX overvalued or undervalued?

CSX Corporation trades at a P/E of 30.0 (forward 22.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CSX?

28 analysts cover CSX with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $47.

What does CSX Corporation do?The Company provides rail-based freight transportation services including traditional rail service, the transport of...

The Company provides rail-based freight transportation services including traditional rail service, the transport of intermodal containers and trailers, as well as other transportation services such as rail-to-truck transfers and bulk commodity operations. CSX and the rail industry provide customers with access to an expansive and interconnected transportation network that plays a key role in North American commerce and is critical to the long-term economic success and improved glob

Related stocks: UNP (Union Pacific Corporation) · CP (Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li) · WAB (Westinghouse Air Brake Technolo) · CNI (Canadian National Railway Compa) · NSC (Norfolk Southern Corporation)
Home Stocks CSX

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