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CRMSalesforce, Inc.Buy Wait6.4·$196.21-2.56%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A high-quality franchise with exceptional cash conversion and four consecutive earnings beats trades at an attractive valuation, yet a confirmed technical downtrend and death-cross configuration prevent a compelling near-term entry; the setup favors patience until the chart recovers above its long-term trend.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Analyst UpsideDeteriorating
  • Earnings Beat Streak Cash QualityStable
  • Confirmed Downtrend Limits EntryDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

Buy WaitValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Wait for pullback to $187.76. At $196.21 the A.R:R is 0.9:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $187.76 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Salesforce sells subscription-based cloud software for customer relationship management, encompassing sales automation, service management, marketing, commerce, analytics, and data integration, to businesses worldwide. The company generates subscription revenue on contracts... Read more

$196.21+13.3% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#22 of 124 Software - Application
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield10.04%
IncomeYield0.91%Payout19.56%sustainable
Entry $187.76(1 ATR pullback)Stop $174.62Target $222.38(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$241.72+23.2%53 analysts
$222.38our TP
$196.21price
$241.72mean
$160
$475

Wait for pullback to $187.76. At $196.21 the A.R:R is 0.9:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $187.76 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Salesforce, Inc.

About Salesforce, Inc.

Salesforce's Agentforce 360 Platform consolidates sales automation, service management, marketing, commerce, analytics (Tableau), API integration (MuleSoft), and data management (Informatica and Data 360) on a single cloud platform sold primarily to enterprise customers worldwide. The company closed the Informatica acquisition in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, funded by $6.0 billion in borrowings under the Informatica Credit Agreements. The platform is extended by tens of millions of Trailblazer developers and administrators through the AppExchange marketplace.

Salesforce generates subscription revenue from enterprise customers of all sizes on contracts typically 12 to 36 months in length, selling directly through a sales force and indirectly through a global network of ISVs and system integrators. The company competes against packaged enterprise software vendors, cloud computing platform providers, AI-native startups, and productivity tool providers in what the 10-K describes as a 'highly competitive, rapidly evolving and fragmented' market. Revenue model evolution is material: Agentforce and Data 360 are introducing consumption-based pricing alongside traditional subscriptions, which the 10-K acknowledges presents 'additional risks and challenges' for monetization predictability. Infrastructure is delivered through multi-tenant cloud architecture on third-party hosting facilities, with Hyperforce allowing customers to control data residency locally.

Show full overview

Salesforce's growing AI product portfolio, including Agentforce, exposes the company to a rapidly evolving regulatory landscape. The 10-K identifies privacy laws, cross-border data transfer restrictions, evolving AI-specific regulations, and U.S. export controls as material risks that may impact international operations. The Hyperforce architecture was specifically designed to address data residency requirements across jurisdictions, partially mitigating regulatory risk. A cybersecurity event in 2019 prompted enhanced safeguards; the 10-K notes no material breach has occurred since, though future incidents would trigger disclosure obligations under SEC Form 8-K rules.

See also: Technology · Software - Application

From Salesforce, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 26, 202612d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.52)
High-quality business
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.4
P/E (Fwd)13.0
Mkt Cap$164.9B
EV/EBITDA15.2
Profit Mgn18.7%
ROE16.9%
Rev Growth13.3%
Beta1.15
Dividend0.91%
Rating analysts58

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.26bearish
IV56%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-02Item 5.02LOW
    Guy Wanger appointed Chief Accounting Officer and principal accounting officer effective June 15, 2026. Previously Partner at WilliamsMarston LLC (March 2025) and 38 years at Ernst & Young LLP. No departure of existing officer cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.7
Bollinger
2.5
52w Position
4.4
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentEARNINGS PROXIMITY 12d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $155.15Resistance $204.40

Price Targets

$175
$188
$222
A.Upside+13.3%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-26 (12d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CRM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $187.76. At $196.21 the A.R:R is 0.9:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $187.76 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $222.38 (+13.3%), stop $174.62 (−12.4%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CRM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $222.38 (+13.3% upside). Target $222.38 (+13.3%), stop $174.62 (−12.4%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Stop-loss: $174.62.

What are the risks of investing in CRM?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is CRM overvalued or undervalued?

Salesforce, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.4 (forward 13.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about CRM?

58 analysts cover CRM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $242.

What does Salesforce, Inc. do?Salesforce sells subscription-based cloud software for customer relationship management, encompassing sales automation,...

Salesforce sells subscription-based cloud software for customer relationship management, encompassing sales automation, service management, marketing, commerce, analytics, and data integration, to businesses worldwide. The company generates subscription revenue on contracts typically 12-36 months in length, selling directly and through a global network of ISVs and system integrators.

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