Carter's trades at an attractively low forward valuation and has shown recent earnings recovery, but with less than 2% remaining to the near-term price objective and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.27-to-1 that is deeply unfavorable, the setup argues for patience rather than adding exposure — leverage at a debt-to-equity of 1.3 and an unsafe dividend yield add further constraints to the risk profile.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Recovery Gaining Traction→Stable
- Attractive Forward Valuation→Stable
- Unfavorable Risk Reward At Target→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Carter's, Inc. (CRI) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.72 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: China fabric sourcing (60.0%).
Carter's is North America's largest apparel company for babies and young children, selling under the Carter's and OshKosh B'gosh brands plus exclusive labels (Child of Mine at Walmart, Just One You at Target, Simple Joys at Amazon) and emerging brands Little Planet, Otter... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.72 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: China fabric sourcing (60.0%). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Carter's, Inc.
About Carter's, Inc.
Carter's operates 1,068 company-operated retail stores and reaches approximately 19,500 wholesale locations across North America, holding roughly 9% share of the $29 billion U.S. baby-to-10-year apparel market through its Carter's brand and about 1% through OshKosh B'gosh. The company also licenses its brands to partners in more than 1,100 international locations across over 90 countries.
Carter's sells through three segments — U.S. Retail, U.S. Wholesale, and International — with U.S. Wholesale customers including Costco, JCPenney, Kohl's, Macy's, Marshalls, Ross Stores, Sam's Club, and T.J. Maxx, alongside exclusive-brand placements at Walmart, Target, and Amazon. Product is sourced almost entirely through third-party manufacturers in Asia; Vietnam, Bangladesh, Cambodia, and India are expected to collectively represent approximately 75% of fiscal 2026 sourcing spend, with China under 3%, though 60% of the fabric used in fiscal 2025 production still originated in China. Carter's is closing about 150 lower-margin stores through fiscal 2028 to improve fleet productivity while continuing to invest in its Carter's Rewards loyalty program and a private-label credit card issued by a third-party financial institution that bears the underwriting and credit risk.
Show full overview
Wholesale concentration is a distinct exposure from the sourcing footprint: the two largest wholesale customers accounted for 11.0% and 10.3% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, respectively, and no long-term sales contracts bind either relationship. On May 1, 2026, Carter's announced Sharon Price John, previously CEO of Build-A-Bear Workshop since 2016, as incoming Chief Executive Officer and President effective June 15, 2026, alongside a reaffirmation of its first-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 outlook.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail
From Carter's, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Carter's, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS CRI Maintained by Wells Fargo -- Price Target Raised to $33.00 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS RCS - Frontier IP Group - Portfolio news: CRI wins EU grant - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS Carter's (CRI) Placed Under Catalyst Watch by Citi with Buy Rati - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS CRI Carter's tops Q4 2025 EPS estimates, posts 1.9 percent year over year revenue growth, shares rise 1.06 percent. - Mo — UBND thành phố Hải Phòng positive
- NEWS Analysts estimate Carter's (CRI) to report a decline in earnings: What to look out for - msn.com — msn.com negative
Generated 2026-08-15T15:27:04Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerlargest wholesale customer11%10-K Item 1: 'Our two largest wholesale customers accounted for 11.0% and 10.3%, respectively, of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025.'
- LOWCustomersecond largest wholesale customer10%10-K Item 1: 'Our two largest wholesale customers accounted for 11.0% and 10.3%, respectively, of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025.'
- HIGHSupplierChina fabric sourcing60%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 60% of the fabric that was used in the manufacture of our products was sourced from China'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-01Item 5.02MEDIUMSharon Price John, former Build-A-Bear Workshop CEO since 2016, named Carter's CEO and President effective June 15, 2026; clean handoff with a named successor and effective date.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.72 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: China fabric sourcing (60.0%). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $36.01. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $40.43 (-4.1% upside). Prior stop was $36.01. Stop-loss: $36.01.
Concentration risk — Supplier: China fabric sourcing (60.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.
Carter's, Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.2 (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover CRI with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $43.
What does Carter's, Inc. do?Carter's is North America's largest apparel company for babies and young children, selling under the Carter's and...
Carter's is North America's largest apparel company for babies and young children, selling under the Carter's and OshKosh B'gosh brands plus exclusive labels (Child of Mine at Walmart, Just One You at Target, Simple Joys at Amazon) and emerging brands Little Planet, Otter Avenue, and Skip Hop. The company operates 1,068 company-run retail stores in North America and roughly 19,500 wholesale locations across U.S. Retail, U.S. Wholesale, and International segments, holding an approximately 9% share of the $29 billion U.S. baby-to-10-year apparel market.