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CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding Buy Wait6.7·$166.69+0.89%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Credo Technology is a high-quality, hypergrowth semiconductor franchise with a wide economic moat, a four-quarter earnings beat streak, and peer-leading margins — but the stock is within 2% of its near-term price objective and extreme customer concentration at the top customer level of 67% of revenue constrains conviction at current prices.

Thesis pillars

  • Hypergrowth Revenue MomentumStable
  • Customer Concentration Structural RiskDeteriorating
  • Wide Moat Quality EconomicsStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup · Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $175.21 but weak momentum; recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: single largest customer (67.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (90.0%).

Credo Technology Group Holding designs and sells high-speed connectivity semiconductor products -- including Active Electrical Cables, optical DSPs, PCIe retimers, and SerDes chiplets -- along with SerDes IP licensing for AI, cloud, and hyperscale data center networks,... Read more

$166.69+52.3% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#9 of 54 Semiconductors
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.81%
Entry $175.21(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $137.25Target $250.03(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.5:1
Analyst target$277.81+66.7%19 analysts
$250.03our TP
$166.69price
$277.81mean
$350

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $175.21 but weak momentum; recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: single largest customer (67.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (90.0%). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 23, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.05, quality 8.6/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Credo Technology Group Holding

About Credo Technology Group Holding

One customer accounted for 67% of Credo Technology Group's $436.8 million in fiscal 2025 revenue, more than double the $193.0 million generated in fiscal 2024, and the top 10 customers together made up approximately 90% of revenue. Credo operates a fabless model, exclusively using Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company for wafer production in fiscal 2025. The company employed 507 engineers as of May 3, 2025, and product sales represented 97% of revenue versus 3% from SerDes IP licensing.

Credo earns revenue almost entirely from product sales of connectivity chips -- HiWire Active Electrical Cables, optical PAM4 DSPs, Line Card PHYs, and PCIe retimers -- sold through a direct global sales force to hyperscalers, OEMs, ODMs, and optical module manufacturers, supplemented by a smaller SerDes IP licensing business with more than 50 licensing engagements to date. As a fabless designer, Credo outsources wafer fabrication exclusively to TSMC and relies on Amkor, ASE, KYEC, Sigurd Microelectronics, and BizLink for packaging, testing, and cable assembly, concentrating capital intensity in R&D rather than manufacturing; fiscal 2025 R&D spending rose to $146.0 million from $95.5 million in fiscal 2024. Sales are made almost entirely on a purchase-order basis without long-term customer commitments, and design wins with hyperscale and OEM customers typically take two to three years from initial engagement to volume shipment, which the company says makes near-term revenue highly dependent on design wins secured in prior years.

Show full overview

Credo's supply chain runs through a single foundry: in fiscal 2025 the company exclusively used TSMC for all semiconductor wafer production, with packaging and testing further concentrated among a short list of Asia-based subcontractors -- Amkor, ASE, KYEC, Sigurd, and BizLink. The 10-K acknowledges that if TSMC's capacity were reduced or eliminated, Credo may be unable to secure alternative wafer fabrication given how few qualified providers exist at its process nodes, and that industry consolidation could leave survivors as de facto sole-source vendors. That exposure compounds with the customer side: Credo holds no long-term purchase commitments, so a demand swing at its largest hyperscale customer and a wafer disruption at TSMC could hit revenue simultaneously.

See also: Technology · Semiconductors

From Credo Technology Group Holding 's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04

Recent Developments — Credo Technology Group Holding

Generated 2026-09-04T10:12:12Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 30, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.6 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.57)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: single largest customer (67.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (90.0%)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)82.6
P/E (Fwd)17.2
Mkt Cap$31.1B
EV/EBITDA77.4
Profit Mgn35.4%
ROE34.4%
Rev Growth157.0%
Beta3.23
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.04bearish
IV78%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomersingle largest customer67%
    10-K Item 1: 'we had one customer that accounted for 10% or more of our total fiscal 2025 (such one customer accounting for 67% of total fiscal 2025 revenue)'
  • HIGHCustomertop 10 customers90%
    10-K Item 1: 'sales to our top 10 customers accounted for approximately 90% of our total revenue'
  • HIGHSupplierTSMC
    10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal year 2025, we exclusively used Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) for semiconductor wafer production.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-01Item 5.02LOW
    Board approved a special performance-based restricted stock unit award for continuing CEO William Brennan on May 28, 2026. No departure or succession involved; full award terms not included in the filing excerpt provided.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Vol Acceleration
5.5
Volume
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+6.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Speculative
RSI
23 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $161.95Resistance $286.24

Price Targets

$137
$175
$250
A.Upside+52.3%
A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CRDO stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $175.21 but weak momentum; recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: single largest customer (67.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (90.0%). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 23, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.05, quality 8.6/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $250.03 (+50.0%), stop $137.25 (−21.4%), A.R:R 3.5:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CRDO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $250.03 (+52.3% upside). Target $250.03 (+50.0%), stop $137.25 (−21.4%), A.R:R 3.5:1. Stop-loss: $137.25.

What are the risks of investing in CRDO?

Concentration risk — Customer: single largest customer (67.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (90.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is CRDO overvalued or undervalued?

Credo Technology Group Holding trades at a P/E of 82.6 (forward 17.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about CRDO?

28 analysts cover CRDO with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $278.

What does Credo Technology Group Holding do?Credo Technology Group Holding designs and sells high-speed connectivity semiconductor products -- including Active...

Credo Technology Group Holding designs and sells high-speed connectivity semiconductor products -- including Active Electrical Cables, optical DSPs, PCIe retimers, and SerDes chiplets -- along with SerDes IP licensing for AI, cloud, and hyperscale data center networks, generating $436.8 million in fiscal 2025 revenue, more than double the $193.0 million reported in fiscal 2024. The company operates a fabless model, exclusively using Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company for wafer production in fiscal 2025, and sells to hyperscalers, OEMs, and optical module manufacturers, with one custome

Related stocks: SIMO (Silicon Motion Technology Corpo) · CRUS (Cirrus Logic, Inc.) · ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.) · NXPI (NXP Semiconductors N.V.) · ALGM (Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.)
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