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CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding Buy Wait6.4·$244.00-5.82%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Credo Technology is a high-quality, hypergrowth semiconductor franchise with a wide economic moat, a four-quarter earnings beat streak, and peer-leading margins — but the stock is within 2% of its near-term price objective and extreme customer concentration at the top customer level of 67% of revenue constrains conviction at current prices.

Thesis pillars

  • Hypergrowth Revenue MomentumStable
  • Customer Concentration Structural RiskStable
  • Wide Moat Quality EconomicsStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Wait for pullback to $217.36. At $244.00 the A.R:R is 0.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $217.36 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: single customer (67.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (90.0%).

Credo Technology Group designs and sells high-speed connectivity semiconductor products -- including Active Electrical Cables, optical DSPs, PCIe retimers, and SerDes chiplets and IP -- serving hyperscale data center, AI/ML infrastructure, and networking customers worldwide. The... Read more

$244.00+11.7% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#5 of 54 Semiconductors
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.56%
Entry $217.36(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $159.98Target $242.83(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.0:1
Analyst target$269.81+10.6%19 analysts
$242.83our TP
$244.00price
$269.81mean
$184
$350

Wait for pullback to $217.36. At $244.00 the A.R:R is 0.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $217.36 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: single customer (67.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (90.0%). Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.08, quality 8.4/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Credo Technology Group Holding

About Credo Technology Group Holding

Credo Technology Group derived approximately 90% of its $436.8 million in fiscal 2025 revenue from its top 10 customers, with a single customer accounting for 67% of that total. Product sales and engineering services made up 97% of revenue, with IP licensing contributing the remainder, and the company employed 507 engineers as of May 3, 2025 while spending $146.0 million on research and development.

Credo operates a fabless model, designing SerDes- and DSP-based connectivity chips, active electrical cables, and IP licenses for hyperscale data centers, AI/ML clusters, and networking equipment makers, then outsourcing all wafer fabrication to TSMC and packaging and test work to partners including Amkor, ASE, KYEC, Sigurd, and BizLink. Sales are made almost entirely on a purchase-order basis rather than long-term contracts, so customers can cancel, delay, or resize orders with limited notice, and revenue in any period can swing sharply with a handful of hyperscaler buying decisions. The company sells through a direct global sales force supported by field application engineers, targeting both end customers and the OEMs and ODMs that supply them, and competes against larger, better-resourced rivals including Broadcom, Marvell, and Astera Labs in optical DSPs, PCIe retimers, and AECs.

Show full overview

A distinct structural risk sits on the supply side rather than the customer side: Credo's 10-K discloses that in fiscal year 2025 the company exclusively used Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company for semiconductor wafer production, with no alternate foundry named for its ICs. Because design qualification cycles with new suppliers can take many months and Credo's own products embed process-specific design choices, a disruption at TSMC -- whether from capacity constraints, geopolitical tension around Taiwan, or new Section 232 tariff investigations into semiconductor imports that the 10-K flags as pending -- could constrain shipments even if hyperscaler demand for 800G and 1.6T Ethernet products remains strong.

See also: Technology · Semiconductors

From Credo Technology Group Holding 's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 5, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: single customer (67.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (90.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)96.0
P/E (Fwd)27.1
Mkt Cap$45.1B
EV/EBITDA91.1
Profit Mgn35.4%
ROE34.4%
Rev Growth157.0%
Beta3.20
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.86neutral
IV123%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomersingle customer67%
    10-K Item 1: 'we had one customer that accounted for 10% or more of our total fiscal 2025 (such one customer accounting for 67% of total fiscal 2025 revenue)'
  • HIGHCustomertop 10 customers90%
    10-K Item 1: 'sales to our top 10 customers accounted for approximately 90% of our total revenue'
  • HIGHSupplierTSMC
    10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal year 2025, we exclusively used Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) for semiconductor wafer production.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-01Item 5.02LOW
    On May 28, 2026, the Board approved a special performance-based equity award for CEO William Brennan; full award terms were not included in the fetched excerpt. No officer departure or succession involved.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 0.0 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $200.00Resistance $308.67

Price Targets

$160
$217
$243
A.Upside-0.5%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.4% upside)
! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! asymmetry at 0.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

We could not retrieve earnings history for CRDO.
The company may be recently listed, pre-revenue, or its beat/miss record wasn't available from our source this run. Earnings signals feed the Growth and Catalyst score dimensions — absence here doesn't affect other dimensions.

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CRDO stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $217.36. At $244.00 the A.R:R is 0.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $217.36 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: single customer (67.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (90.0%). Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.08, quality 8.4/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $242.83 (-0.5%), stop $159.98 (−52.5%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CRDO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $242.83 (+11.7% upside). Target $242.83 (-0.5%), stop $159.98 (−52.5%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $159.98.

What are the risks of investing in CRDO?

Concentration risk — Customer: single customer (67.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (90.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is CRDO overvalued or undervalued?

Credo Technology Group Holding trades at a P/E of 96.0 (forward 27.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about CRDO?

27 analysts cover CRDO with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $270.

What does Credo Technology Group Holding do?Credo Technology Group designs and sells high-speed connectivity semiconductor products -- including Active Electrical...

Credo Technology Group designs and sells high-speed connectivity semiconductor products -- including Active Electrical Cables, optical DSPs, PCIe retimers, and SerDes chiplets and IP -- serving hyperscale data center, AI/ML infrastructure, and networking customers worldwide. The company generated $436.8 million in fiscal 2025 revenue under a fabless model, relying exclusively on TSMC for wafer manufacturing, with its top 10 customers accounting for approximately 90% of revenue and a single customer representing 67%.

Related stocks: CBRS (Cerebras Systems Inc.) · ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.) · SIMO (Silicon Motion Technology Corpo) · MPWR (Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.) · NXPI (NXP Semiconductors N.V.)
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