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CNHCNH Industrial N.V.Sell4.4·$10.84+1.08%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

CNH Industrial's business quality sits below the investment minimum with no identified competitive advantage, revenue in slight decline, and a flagged dividend yield trap; analyst consensus implies roughly 12% upside at a PEG of 0.61, but quality and execution concerns keep the risk/reward from being actionable at current prices.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Threshold No MoatStable
  • Analyst Consensus Implies Meaningful UpsideStable
  • Revenue Contraction Growth AbsentStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.84: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

CNH Industrial N.V. develops, manufactures and sells agricultural equipment under the Case IH and New Holland brands, and construction equipment under CASE and New Holland Construction brands, through Agriculture, Construction, and Financial Services segments. The captive... Read more

$10.84+10.1% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#16 of 17 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield1.86%
IncomeYield0.93%(5y avg 2.54%)Payout78.13%
Stop $10.11Target $11.97(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$13.31+22.7%19 analysts
$11.97our TP
$10.84price
$13.31mean
$10
$21

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.84: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202628d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.5
P/E (Fwd)14.7
Mkt Cap$13.3B
EV/EBITDA35.4
Profit Mgn2.1%
ROE4.8%
Rev Growth-0.1%
Beta1.21
Dividend0.93%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.60bullish
IV64%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-26Item 5.02LOW
    Board members Asa Tamsons and Richard J. Kramer notified the Board on March 24, 2026 they will not stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. No disagreement cited. Successors nominated: Richard Palmer and Lorenzo Simonelli.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -0.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.5
Declining revenue: -0%

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Roa
0.6
Operating Margin
1.1
Net Margin
1.1
Roe
1.6
Moat
3.1
Piotroski F
4.4
Fcf Quality
4.9
Current Ratio
8.1
Earnings quality warning: 64% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns
GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.6>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 28d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.97Resistance $11.51

Price Targets

$10
$12
A.Upside+10.4%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (28d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CNH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.84: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $10.11. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CNH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.97 (+10.1% upside). Prior stop was $10.11. Stop-loss: $10.11.

What are the risks of investing in CNH?

Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0).

Is CNH overvalued or undervalued?

CNH Industrial N.V. trades at a P/E of 33.5 (forward 14.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CNH?

25 analysts cover CNH with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $13.

What does CNH Industrial N.V. do?CNH Industrial N.V. develops, manufactures and sells agricultural equipment under the Case IH and New Holland brands,...

CNH Industrial N.V. develops, manufactures and sells agricultural equipment under the Case IH and New Holland brands, and construction equipment under CASE and New Holland Construction brands, through Agriculture, Construction, and Financial Services segments. The captive financing arm, CNH Capital, provides retail and wholesale financing to dealers and end customers across subsidiaries in 32 countries.

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