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CMECME Group Inc.Hold5.8·$267.65-0.70%
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CME Group Inc. (CME) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $267.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.

CME Group operates four U.S. derivatives exchanges (CME, CBOT, NYMEX, and COMEX) and cash markets for fixed income (BrokerTec) and FX (EBS), offering futures, options, and OTC derivatives across six asset classes to financial institutions, corporations, and professional traders... Read more

$267.65+2.9% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#7 of 11 Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.11%
IncomeYield1.93%(5y avg 3.49%)Payout95.56%at-risk
Stop $251.68Target $275.34(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$305.93+14.3%15 analysts
$275.34our TP
$267.65price
$305.93mean
$230
$353

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $267.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst cluster(6), earnings proximity 36d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About CME Group Inc.

About CME Group Inc.

CME Group's four derivatives exchanges — CME, CBOT, NYMEX, and COMEX — set a record average daily volume of 28.1 million contracts in 2025, with interest rates posting a third consecutive year of volume records. BrokerTec and EBS cash markets generated $283.7 million in clearing and transaction fees in 2025. In December 2025, CME Securities Clearing Inc. received SEC approval to become a securities clearing agency ahead of the U.S. Treasury clearing deadline of December 31, 2026.

CME Group earns the majority of its revenue from clearing and transaction fees charged to members and clearing firms across interest rates, equity indexes, FX, agricultural commodities, energy, metals, and cryptocurrencies. One unnamed firm represented 12% of clearing and transaction fees revenue in 2025; the 10-K notes that if this firm were to withdraw, the customer portion of its trading would likely transfer to other clearing firms. Data services revenue derives from real-time, historical, and derived market data distributed via third-party platforms and Google Cloud, where CME Group became the first derivatives marketplace to provide live market data natively as part of a 10-year partnership begun in 2021. The company holds exclusive licenses for S&P 500 futures under the S&P License Agreement (exclusive until one year before termination), for Nasdaq indices through 2039, and for Russell indices through 2037; the Dow Jones License Agreement initial term runs through June 30, 2026, and auto-renews in five-year periods thereafter. Revenue from these index products depends on maintaining exclusivity and on licensing fees paid to the applicable index providers.

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CME Group is subject to CFTC designation as a contract market and derivatives clearing organization, while BrokerTec and EBS carry additional broker-dealer and multilateral trading facility obligations in the U.S., U.K., and EU. BrokerTec Americas' FICC membership is operationally critical: losing it, or failing to meet margin calls to FICC, could impair wholesale participants' willingness to trade on the platform. Certain large clearing firms have sought legislative changes permitting transfer of open positions from exchange-owned clearing houses to clearing firm-controlled facilities — a structural challenge to CME Group's vertically integrated execution-and-clearing model if enacted.

See also: Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges

From CME Group Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202636d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Wide economic moat
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.0
P/E (Fwd)20.9
Mkt Cap$97.4B
EV/EBITDA20.6
Profit Mgn63.3%
ROE15.9%
Rev Growth14.4%
Beta0.24
Dividend1.93%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.58bullish
IV37%normal
Max Pain$120-55.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerone firm (12% of clearing and transaction fees)12%
    10-K Item 1: 'One firm represented 12% of our clearing and transaction fees revenue for 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
0.4
Peg Ratio
2.7
Analyst Target
5.0
Pe
5.6
Forward Pe
6.2
Forward P/E: 20.9xPEG: 4.73
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(6)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 36d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $243.30Resistance $306.42

Price Targets

$252
$275
A.Upside+2.9%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.9% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (36d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CME stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $267.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $275.34 (+2.9%), stop $251.68 (−6.3%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CME stock price target?

Take-profit target: $275.34 (+2.9% upside). Target $275.34 (+2.9%), stop $251.68 (−6.3%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $251.68.

What are the risks of investing in CME?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.

Is CME overvalued or undervalued?

CME Group Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.0 (forward 20.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CME?

21 analysts cover CME with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $306.

What does CME Group Inc. do?CME Group operates four U.S. derivatives exchanges (CME, CBOT, NYMEX, and COMEX) and cash markets for fixed income...

CME Group operates four U.S. derivatives exchanges (CME, CBOT, NYMEX, and COMEX) and cash markets for fixed income (BrokerTec) and FX (EBS), offering futures, options, and OTC derivatives across six asset classes to financial institutions, corporations, and professional traders worldwide. Revenue is primarily from clearing and transaction fees, with one firm representing 12% of those fees in 2025; average daily volume reached a record 28.1 million contracts in 2025.

Related stocks: ICE (Intercontinental Exchange Inc.) · TRU (TransUnion) · MSCI (MSCI Inc.) · NDAQ (Nasdaq, Inc.) · SPGI (S&P Global Inc.)
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