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CME Group Inc. (CME) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $300.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.

CME Group operates the world's largest derivatives exchange complex (CME, CBOT, NYMEX, COMEX) covering interest rates, equity indexes, FX, agricultural commodities, energy, metals, and crypto, plus a central counterparty clearing house and cash markets (BrokerTec, EBS). Record... Read more

$300.37-0.2% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#7 of 11 Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.74%
IncomeYield1.70%(5y avg 3.40%)Payout43.09%sustainable
Stop $290.85Target $301.85(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$306.60+2.1%15 analysts
$301.85our TP
$300.37price
$306.60mean
$230
$353

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $300.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — CME Group Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.0
P/E (Fwd)23.7
Mkt Cap$110.6B
EV/EBITDA23.3
Profit Mgn63.3%
ROE15.9%
Rev Growth14.4%
Beta0.26
Dividend1.70%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.42bullish
IV41%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerone clearing firm12%
    10-K Item 1: 'One firm represented 12% of our clearing and transaction fees revenue for 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Ev Ebitda
0.0
Peg Ratio
2.6
Analyst Target
4.0
Pe
4.9
Forward Pe
5.4
Forward P/E: 23.7xPEG: 4.76

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.4
Support Resistance
1.7
52w Position
8.8
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $274.60Resistance $308.01

Price Targets

$291
$302
A.Upside+0.5%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CME stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $300.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $301.85 (+0.5%), stop $290.85 (−3.3%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CME stock price target?

Take-profit target: $301.85 (-0.2% upside). Target $301.85 (+0.5%), stop $290.85 (−3.3%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Stop-loss: $290.85.

What are the risks of investing in CME?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.

Is CME overvalued or undervalued?

CME Group Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.0 (forward 23.7). TrendMatrix value score: 3.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CME?

21 analysts cover CME with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $307.

What does CME Group Inc. do?CME Group operates the world's largest derivatives exchange complex (CME, CBOT, NYMEX, COMEX) covering interest rates,...

CME Group operates the world's largest derivatives exchange complex (CME, CBOT, NYMEX, COMEX) covering interest rates, equity indexes, FX, agricultural commodities, energy, metals, and crypto, plus a central counterparty clearing house and cash markets (BrokerTec, EBS). Record ADV of 28.1 million contracts in 2025, with 85% of contract volume from member trades.

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