CME Group is a best-in-class financial exchange with 63% operating margins, a wide economic moat, and a Rule of 40 score of 59 — but at a forward P/E of 20.6x and with only 3.5% upside to the consensus target, the setup offers downside of 8.6% against upside of 3.5%, making the risk/reward unfavorable for new capital at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Wide Moat Elite Margins→Stable
- Rich Valuation Thin Upside→Stable
- Unfavorable Risk Reward Geometry→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
CME Group Inc. (CME) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
Wait for pullback to $226.08. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $235.63. Engine's entry $226.08 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Below 200-day MA.
CME Group operates four U.S. derivatives exchanges (CME, CBOT, NYMEX, and COMEX) and cash markets for fixed income (BrokerTec) and FX (EBS), offering futures, options, and OTC derivatives across six asset classes to financial institutions, corporations, and professional traders... Read more
Wait for pullback to $226.08. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $235.63. Engine's entry $226.08 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 16d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
About CME Group Inc.
About CME Group Inc.
CME Group's four derivatives exchanges — CME, CBOT, NYMEX, and COMEX — set a record average daily volume of 28.1 million contracts in 2025, with interest rates posting a third consecutive year of volume records. BrokerTec and EBS cash markets generated $283.7 million in clearing and transaction fees in 2025. In December 2025, CME Securities Clearing Inc. received SEC approval to become a securities clearing agency ahead of the U.S. Treasury clearing deadline of December 31, 2026.
CME Group earns the majority of its revenue from clearing and transaction fees charged to members and clearing firms across interest rates, equity indexes, FX, agricultural commodities, energy, metals, and cryptocurrencies. One unnamed firm represented 12% of clearing and transaction fees revenue in 2025; the 10-K notes that if this firm were to withdraw, the customer portion of its trading would likely transfer to other clearing firms. Data services revenue derives from real-time, historical, and derived market data distributed via third-party platforms and Google Cloud, where CME Group became the first derivatives marketplace to provide live market data natively as part of a 10-year partnership begun in 2021. The company holds exclusive licenses for S&P 500 futures under the S&P License Agreement (exclusive until one year before termination), for Nasdaq indices through 2039, and for Russell indices through 2037; the Dow Jones License Agreement initial term runs through June 30, 2026, and auto-renews in five-year periods thereafter. Revenue from these index products depends on maintaining exclusivity and on licensing fees paid to the applicable index providers.
Show full overview
CME Group is subject to CFTC designation as a contract market and derivatives clearing organization, while BrokerTec and EBS carry additional broker-dealer and multilateral trading facility obligations in the U.S., U.K., and EU. BrokerTec Americas' FICC membership is operationally critical: losing it, or failing to meet margin calls to FICC, could impair wholesale participants' willingness to trade on the platform. Certain large clearing firms have sought legislative changes permitting transfer of open positions from exchange-owned clearing houses to clearing firm-controlled facilities — a structural challenge to CME Group's vertically integrated execution-and-clearing model if enacted.
See also: Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
From CME Group Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — CME Group Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) Shares Gap Down - What's Next? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Raymond James reiterates CME Group stock rating citing volatility - Investing.com — Investing.com neutral
- NEWS Earnings call transcript: CME Group Q1 2026 beats expectations but stock dips - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS CME Group is the most oversold financial stock as Q1 earnings roll on - MSN — MSN negative
- NEWS CME Stock Under Pressure After Double Miss - Benzinga — Benzinga negative
Generated 2026-07-07T11:41:56Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerone firm (12% of clearing and transaction fees)12%10-K Item 1: 'One firm represented 12% of our clearing and transaction fees revenue for 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $226.08. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $235.63. Engine's entry $226.08 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $271.02 (+15.0%), stop $211.76 (−11.3%), A.R:R 2.1:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $271.02 (+19.9% upside). Target $271.02 (+15.0%), stop $211.76 (−11.3%), A.R:R 2.1:1. Stop-loss: $211.76.
Below 200-day MA.
CME Group Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.2 (forward 18.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
21 analysts cover CME with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $301.
What does CME Group Inc. do?CME Group operates four U.S. derivatives exchanges (CME, CBOT, NYMEX, and COMEX) and cash markets for fixed income...
CME Group operates four U.S. derivatives exchanges (CME, CBOT, NYMEX, and COMEX) and cash markets for fixed income (BrokerTec) and FX (EBS), offering futures, options, and OTC derivatives across six asset classes to financial institutions, corporations, and professional traders worldwide. Revenue is primarily from clearing and transaction fees, with one firm representing 12% of those fees in 2025; average daily volume reached a record 28.1 million contracts in 2025.