An impressive earnings beat streak with an average positive surprise of roughly 38% stands against a deteriorating momentum profile, a forward multiple stretched past 100 times earnings, and business quality well below the floor needed for a defensible position.
Thesis pillars
- Momentum Breakdown Volume Distribution→Stable
- Extreme Forward Multiple Stretched→Stable
- Strong Earnings Beat Track Record→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Calumet, Inc (CLMT) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.42: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Calumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets a slate of specialty branded products and renewable fuels in North America and internationally. It operates through Specialty Products and Solutions; Performance Brands; and Montana/Renewables segments. The Specialty Products... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.42: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Calumet, Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Calumet Specialty Prods Q1 EPS $(3.64) Misses $(0.38) Estimate, Sales $1.029B Beat $957.071M Estimate — benzinga May 8, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMcounterpartyJ. Aron10-K Item 1A: 'Our arrangement with J. Aron exposes us to J. Aron-related credit and performance risk as well as potential refinancing risks.'
- MEDIUMSupplierEnterprise Products Partners L.P. and Plains pipelines10-K Item 1A: 'Our Shreveport facility is interconnected to a pipeline ... pipelines operated by subsidiaries of Enterprise Products Partners L.P. and Plains.'
- MEDIUMCommoditynatural gas10-K Item 1A: 'Natural gas and utility costs constituted approximately 14.0% and 10.3% of our total operating expenses included in cost of sales for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOWDirector Jennifer G. Straumins notified the Board on March 23, 2026 of her decision not to stand for re-election to the Board, retiring at end of her term at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. No disagreement with operations, policies or practices cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.42: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $33.87. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $36.98 (+1.5% upside). Prior stop was $33.87. Stop-loss: $33.87.
Target reached (-7.3% upside); Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-8.4% YoY), High leverage (D/E 2.8).
Calumet, Inc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 117.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover CLMT with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $39.
What does Calumet, Inc do?Calumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets a slate of specialty branded products and renewable fuels in North...
Calumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets a slate of specialty branded products and renewable fuels in North America and internationally. It operates through Specialty Products and Solutions; Performance Brands; and Montana/Renewables segments. The Specialty Products and Solutions segment manufactures and markets various solvents, waxes, customized lubricating oils, white oils, petrolatums, gels, esters, and other products. The Montana/Renewables segment processes geographically advantaged renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, aviation fuel, and renewable naphtha. This segment also engages in the process of Canadian crude oil into conventional gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and specialty grades of asphalt. The Performance Brands segment blends, packages, and markets high performance products through Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, and TruFuel brands. It serves wholesale distributors and retail chains. Calumet, Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.