Value
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 6.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 117.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.03
CLMT · Why this verdict
Why Calumet (CLMT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Price momentum has weakened sharply: the momentum gate failed its required threshold, on-balance volume is falling, and the stock is in a range-bound pattern with a neutral RSI of 47 — the technical picture is consistent with sellers gradually gaining the upper hand. Engine gate (failed) | For this concern to lift, on-balance volume must turn positive and price momentum must recover above the failed gate threshold within the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA range-bound setup following a strong earnings run can represent healthy digestion before the next leg higher; not every period of neutral price action marks the beginning of sustained deterioration. | ||
The forward price-to-earnings multiple stands at approximately 108 times — an extremely demanding valuation that embeds growth assumptions far ahead of current fundamentals and leaves almost no room for execution shortfalls. Value | For the valuation to prove justified, earnings would need to grow substantially and the multiple would need to compress toward sector-reasonable levels within the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG ratio near 0.94 suggests that if the underlying growth trajectory materializes, even a high absolute multiple can be supported by the pace of earnings expansion. | ||
Three of the past four quarters have come in meaningfully above consensus estimates, with an average positive surprise of roughly 38%, followed by a miss in the oldest of the four periods — a recent record suggesting management is consistently under-promising and over-delivering. Earnings | Beat streak continues; at least 3 of the next 4 quarters deliver positive EPS surprises, maintaining an average above 20%. | →Stable |
| CounterWide earnings beats often precede periods of mean-reversion as analyst models reset upward; once estimates are revised to reflect the improved trajectory, the bar rises and sustaining a 38% average surprise becomes progressively harder. | ||
The business lacks a competitive moat and overall quality sits well below the minimum threshold of 4.0 — the combination of weak financials and no identifiable competitive advantage creates fragility if the recent earnings surprise trend reverses. Quality | Quality improves above the 4.0 floor level; a competitive moat beginning to register in future assessments would signal a structural shift worth reassessing. | →Stable |
| CounterSpecialty chemicals businesses can generate profitable niches through customer relationships and switching costs even without formally recognized moats; the current ratio of 3.9 suggests short-term liquidity remains adequate. | ||
Price momentum has weakened sharply: the momentum gate failed its required threshold, on-balance volume is falling, and the stock is in a range-bound pattern with a neutral RSI of 47 — the technical picture is consistent with sellers gradually gaining the upper hand.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- For this concern to lift, on-balance volume must turn positive and price momentum must recover above the failed gate threshold within the next two quarters.
CounterA range-bound setup following a strong earnings run can represent healthy digestion before the next leg higher; not every period of neutral price action marks the beginning of sustained deterioration.
The forward price-to-earnings multiple stands at approximately 108 times — an extremely demanding valuation that embeds growth assumptions far ahead of current fundamentals and leaves almost no room for execution shortfalls.
→StableValue
- Expectation
- For the valuation to prove justified, earnings would need to grow substantially and the multiple would need to compress toward sector-reasonable levels within the next 12 months.
CounterA PEG ratio near 0.94 suggests that if the underlying growth trajectory materializes, even a high absolute multiple can be supported by the pace of earnings expansion.
Three of the past four quarters have come in meaningfully above consensus estimates, with an average positive surprise of roughly 38%, followed by a miss in the oldest of the four periods — a recent record suggesting management is consistently under-promising and over-delivering.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat streak continues; at least 3 of the next 4 quarters deliver positive EPS surprises, maintaining an average above 20%.
CounterWide earnings beats often precede periods of mean-reversion as analyst models reset upward; once estimates are revised to reflect the improved trajectory, the bar rises and sustaining a 38% average surprise becomes progressively harder.
The business lacks a competitive moat and overall quality sits well below the minimum threshold of 4.0 — the combination of weak financials and no identifiable competitive advantage creates fragility if the recent earnings surprise trend reverses.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Quality improves above the 4.0 floor level; a competitive moat beginning to register in future assessments would signal a structural shift worth reassessing.
CounterSpecialty chemicals businesses can generate profitable niches through customer relationships and switching costs even without formally recognized moats; the current ratio of 3.9 suggests short-term liquidity remains adequate.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
An impressive earnings beat streak with an average positive surprise of roughly 38% stands against a deteriorating momentum profile, a forward multiple stretched past 100 times earnings, and business quality well below the floor needed for a defensible position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.9 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $20,400,007 (0.643% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.9 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 2.4 |
| put call | 9.8 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| beta | 8.7 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.64%=HEAVY
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.56
Upside
-7.3%
Downside
13.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Momentum at 7.4 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.4, Growth at 6.7, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Quality at 1.8, Insider at 3.5, and Technical at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.56 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Earnings Beat Track Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Momentum Breakdown Volume Distribution
Trip ifOn-balance volume turns positive and the momentum score rises above 4.5 for 2 consecutive months.
- P3Extreme Forward Multiple Stretched
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 50x from the current approximately 108x.
- P4Quality Floor Breach No Moat
Trip ifBusiness quality score rises above 4.0 on any subsequent assessment.