Cracker Barrel shows a technical breakout but the engine's own quality, value-trap, and risk/reward signals all point to caution -- an earnings-quality red flag, margin compression, negative asymmetry, and elevated short interest outweigh the cheap headline valuation.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Quality Red Flag→Stable
- Value Trap Margin Compression→Stable
- Negative Asymmetry Risk Reward→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor (CBRL) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $50.93: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 45%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.72; Below-average business quality.
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. operates 657 Cracker Barrel restaurant-and-retail stores across 43 states plus 68 Maple Street Biscuit Company locations in 10 states, combining a full-service country-cooking menu with an attached gift shop. Restaurants generated... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $50.93: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 45%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.72; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor
About Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor
Cracker Barrel operates 657 Cracker Barrel Old Country Store locations across 43 states plus 68 Maple Street Biscuit Company units in 10 states, with 83% of Cracker Barrel stores sited along interstate highways. Restaurants generated approximately 81% of the company's 2025 revenue, with average check per guest rising 6.8% to $15.23, while the remaining revenue came from gift-shop retail merchandise sold mainly to restaurant guests.
Revenue splits across two connected channels: full-service dining that serves an average of roughly 5,330 guests per week per store, and a gift shop stocking about 3,100 SKUs where apparel and accessories (33% of retail sales), food items (18%), and toys (13%) lead category mix. The company owns the land and buildings for 358 of its 657 stores and leases the remaining 299 as ground or ground-and-building leases. A single unaffiliated distributor supplies most food purchases on a cost-plus basis, with beef (17% of food purchasing expense), poultry (12%), and dairy (11%) as the largest input categories; roughly 80% of retail merchandise flows through one distribution center in Lebanon, Tennessee, and about one-third of 2025 retail items were sourced directly from vendors in the People's Republic of China. Off-premise sales — to-go, third-party delivery, and catering — made up 20% of restaurant sales in 2025.
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Cracker Barrel's 2024 multi-year strategic plan carries brand-execution risk beyond ordinary menu or pricing changes: in the first quarter of 2026, an updated logo introduced under the plan drew unfavorable consumer feedback and negative publicity, showing that initiatives tested successfully at limited stores can still meet resistance once rolled out system-wide across hundreds of locations and tens of thousands of employees. The company has also layered convertible-note hedge and capped call transactions onto its 2026 and 2030 Notes; the hedge and option counterparties are financial institutions whose potential default would leave Cracker Barrel an unsecured creditor, since none of that exposure is collateralized.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
From Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductrestaurant revenue81%10-K Item 1: 'Our restaurants, which generated approximately 81% of our total revenue in 2025, offer home-style country cooking'
- MEDIUMSupplierChina-sourced retail products10-K Item 1: 'Approximately one-third of our 2025 retail items were purchased directly from vendors in the People’s Republic of China.'
- LOWcounterpartyconvertible note hedge and capped call counterparties10-K Item 1A: 'We are subject to counterparty risk with respect to the convertible note hedge transactions and capped call transactions.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-01Item 5.02MEDIUMSVP, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary Richard Wolfson took early retirement effective May 1, 2026, under his existing Consulting Agreement. VP and Deputy General Counsel Jennifer Lankford was promoted to succeed him effective upon his retirement.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Volatile — 5.3% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $50.93: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 45%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.72; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $47.08. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $54.10 (+6.9% upside). Prior stop was $47.08. Stop-loss: $47.08.
Concentration risk — Product: restaurant revenue (81.0%); Target reached (-32.1% upside); Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).
Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor trades at a P/E of 46.5 (forward 80.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover CBRL with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $40.
What does Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor do?Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. operates 657 Cracker Barrel restaurant-and-retail stores across 43 states plus...
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. operates 657 Cracker Barrel restaurant-and-retail stores across 43 states plus 68 Maple Street Biscuit Company locations in 10 states, combining a full-service country-cooking menu with an attached gift shop. Restaurants generated approximately 81% of 2025 revenue, with the remainder from retail merchandise sold primarily to restaurant guests, and the company is currently executing a multi-year strategic plan to modernize its brand and improve profitability.