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HDLSUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING Sell5.6·$11.83
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Super Hi International screens cheap and cash-generative even after a sharp technical breakdown, but a confirmed downtrend and back-to-back earnings misses argue for waiting on a repair rather than chasing the favorable headline risk/reward.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Post Selloff ValuationStable
  • Strong Cash ConversionStable
  • Confirmed Technical BreakdownImproving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING (HDL) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $11.83: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Super Hi International Holding Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant operation and delivery business in Asia, North America, Europe, Oceania, and internationally. It owns and operates Haidilao restaurants. The company also offers food delivery services;... Read more

$11.83+28.9% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#12 of 33 Restaurants
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.97%
Stop $11.39Target $15.24(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 5.8:1
Analyst target$17.93+51.6%3 analysts
$15.24our TP
$11.83price
$17.93mean
$21

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $11.83: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-23
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Dec 2, 202670d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 29%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)118.3
P/E (Fwd)13.0
Mkt Cap$696M
EV/EBITDA7.6
Profit Mgn1.2%
ROE2.6%
Rev Growth10.0%
Beta0.55
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5A.R:R 5.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
23 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.61Resistance $14.40

Price Targets

$11
$15
A.Upside+28.9%
A.R:R5.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-12-02 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HDL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $11.83: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $11.39. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the HDL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.24 (+28.9% upside). Prior stop was $11.39. Stop-loss: $11.39.

What are the risks of investing in HDL?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is HDL overvalued or undervalued?

SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING trades at a P/E of 118.3 (forward 13.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HDL?

11 analysts cover HDL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $18.

What does SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING do?Super Hi International Holding Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant operation and delivery...

Super Hi International Holding Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant operation and delivery business in Asia, North America, Europe, Oceania, and internationally. It owns and operates Haidilao restaurants. The company also offers food delivery services; and sells hot pot condiment products and food under the Haidilao brand and secondary brands to local guests and retailers. The company was incorporated in 2022 and is headquartered in Singapore.

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