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HDLSUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING Sell5.6·$12.73-2.08%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Super Hi International screens cheap and cash-generative even after a sharp technical breakdown, but a confirmed downtrend and back-to-back earnings misses argue for waiting on a repair rather than chasing the favorable headline risk/reward.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Post Selloff ValuationDeteriorating
  • Strong Cash ConversionDeteriorating
  • Confirmed Technical BreakdownDeteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING (HDL) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.73 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Super Hi International Holding Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant operation and delivery business in Asia, North America, Europe, Oceania, and internationally. It owns and operates Haidilao restaurants. The company also offers food delivery services;... Read more

$12.73+19.7% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#12 of 33 Restaurants
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.25%
Stop $12.25Target $15.24(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 4.0:1
Analyst target$17.93+40.9%3 analysts
$15.24our TP
$12.73price
$17.93mean
$21

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.73 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-02
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Dec 2, 202690d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)130.0
P/E (Fwd)14.3
Mkt Cap$765M
EV/EBITDA8.4
Profit Mgn1.2%
ROE2.6%
Rev Growth10.0%
Beta0.56
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
1.1
Vol Acceleration
2.4
Rsi
4.5
Volume
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.1%/30d — confirmed downtrendVolume surge (2.6x avg) on selloff
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.73Resistance $14.40

Price Targets

$12
$15
A.Upside+19.7%
A.R:R4.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-12-02 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HDL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.73 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $12.25. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the HDL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.24 (+19.7% upside). Prior stop was $12.25. Stop-loss: $12.25.

What are the risks of investing in HDL?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is HDL overvalued or undervalued?

SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING trades at a P/E of 130.0 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HDL?

11 analysts cover HDL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $18.

What does SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING do?Super Hi International Holding Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant operation and delivery...

Super Hi International Holding Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant operation and delivery business in Asia, North America, Europe, Oceania, and internationally. It owns and operates Haidilao restaurants. The company also offers food delivery services; and sells hot pot condiment products and food under the Haidilao brand and secondary brands to local guests and retailers. The company was incorporated in 2022 and is headquartered in Singapore.

Related stocks: ARCO (Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.) · CHA (Chagee Holdings Limited) · WING (Wingstop Inc.) · NATH (Nathan's Famous, Inc.) · LOCO (El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.)
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