Revenue has been declining approximately 2% year-over-year and business quality sits below the minimum acceptable threshold, with the price having reached its near-term resistance ceiling and reward-to-risk turning clearly unfavorable — the setup argues for patience at best and exit at worst, with high short interest as the primary contrarian counterweight.
Thesis pillars
- Confirmed Downtrend Declining Ma↓Deteriorating
- Declining Revenue Quality Concerns→Stable
- Target Reached Unfavorable Setup↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
ConAgra Brands, Inc. (CAG) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.62: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.16; Below-average business quality.
Conagra Brands is one of North America's leading branded food companies, selling shelf-stable, frozen, refrigerated, and foodservice products under brands including Birds Eye, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender's, Reddi-wip, Slim Jim, and Duncan Hines through four reporting... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.62: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.16; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 17, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 16d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
About ConAgra Brands, Inc.
About ConAgra Brands, Inc.
Conagra Brands' largest customer, Walmart and its affiliates, accounted for approximately 29% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, up from 28% in fiscal 2024 and 2023. The company sells branded food products across four reporting segments - Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice - and holds an equity stake in the Ardent Mills flour-milling joint venture. As of May 25, 2025, Conagra employed approximately 18,300 people and carried roughly $8.07 billion of total debt.
Conagra earns revenue selling branded, value-added food products - shelf-stable items under Grocery & Snacks, temperature-controlled products under Refrigerated & Frozen, foodservice items and custom-manufactured culinary products for restaurants and institutions, and branded foods sold internationally - to chain, wholesale, club, and independent grocery and drug retailers, foodservice operators, and e-commerce channels, both directly and through distributors. Brands span owned marks like Birds Eye, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender's, Reddi-wip, and Slim Jim alongside licensed trademarks such as P.F. Chang's, Bertolli, and Wendy's, while Conagra also licenses out marks like Alexia and Marie Callender's to third parties. Raw material and packaging costs - wheat, corn, oats, vegetables, vegetable oils, beef, pork, poultry, dairy, steel, and aluminum - are sourced from numerous suppliers and partly hedged with derivative instruments, since Conagra does not fully hedge commodity price exposure. The Ardent Mills joint venture provides milling capacity as an unconsolidated equity investment alongside a second, smaller equity stake.
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A distinct near-term signal is a CEO transition: on April 13, 2026, Conagra announced that John Brase, previously President and COO of J.M. Smucker and a 30-year Procter & Gamble veteran, will become President and CEO effective June 1, 2026, succeeding Sean Connolly, who has led the company since 2015. The filing separately notes that during economic downturns, consumers have shifted toward generic or lower-priced offerings, which shifts Conagra's own product mix toward lower-margin items - a demand-side risk that a new CEO from outside the company will inherit alongside Conagra's existing Walmart concentration and $8.07 billion debt load.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From ConAgra Brands, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted September 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-13Recent Developments — ConAgra Brands, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Top 3 Risk Off Stocks That May Collapse In August — benzinga Aug 24, 2026 negative
- NEWS 'CEOs Pushed White House to Delay Ultra-Processed Food Definition' - Bloomberg — benzinga Aug 10, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Conagra Announces Retirement Of COO Tom McGough, Effective September 4; COO Role To Be Eliminated — benzinga Jul 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Overweight on Conagra Brands, Raises Price Target to $17 — benzinga Jul 17, 2026 neutral
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Neutral on Conagra Brands, Raises Price Target to $15 — benzinga Jul 16, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-09-13T22:56:52Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart29%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customer, Walmart, Inc. and its affiliates, accounted for approximately 29% of consolidated net sales for fiscal 2025 and 28% for fiscal 2024 and 2023.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-13Item 5.02MEDIUMConagra's Board appointed John Brase, former President and COO of J.M. Smucker, as President and CEO effective June 1, 2026, succeeding Sean Connolly, who has led the company since 2015; Brase joins the Board and Executive Committee on his start date.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -17.0%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.62: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.16; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 17, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $13.87. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $16.40 (-11.3% upside). Prior stop was $13.87. Stop-loss: $13.87.
Target reached (-11.3% upside); Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0).
ConAgra Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover CAG with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $14.
What does ConAgra Brands, Inc. do?Conagra Brands is one of North America's leading branded food companies, selling shelf-stable, frozen, refrigerated,...
Conagra Brands is one of North America's leading branded food companies, selling shelf-stable, frozen, refrigerated, and foodservice products under brands including Birds Eye, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender's, Reddi-wip, Slim Jim, and Duncan Hines through four reporting segments: Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice. The company also holds an equity stake in the Ardent Mills flour-milling joint venture. Walmart and its affiliates, Conagra's largest customer, accounted for approximately 29% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025.