Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.22
- ▸Attractively valued
CAG · Why this verdict
Why ConAgra Brands (CAG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Conagra scores poorly on quality, has declining revenue, and trades above the analyst target, making it a value trap risk despite a low forward P/E.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 2.4 out of 10, below the 4.0 floor, with no moat and flagged quality concerns. Bear case | Quality score recovers above 4.0 as margins stabilize. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPackaged foods are defensive staples with a 4.8% dividend yield that cushions the downside. | ||
The price is above the analyst target of $12.37 (upside of -15.1%), implying the stock is ahead of consensus fair value. Warnings | Analyst targets rise toward the price. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA low forward P/E of 9.7x and a recent 44.9% earnings beat could trigger target upgrades. | ||
Revenue is declining about 1% and growth scores only 2.7 out of 10. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive above 1% YoY. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume declines may be price-driven and temporary as the company resets promotions. | ||
Forward P/E is 9.7x with a PEG of 0.23, but the price is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day average sloping down 2.1%. Valuation breakdown | Earnings stabilize and the forward P/E holds under 11x. | →Stable |
| CounterCheap multiples on shrinking staples earnings often prove to be value traps. | ||
Quality scores 2.4 out of 10, below the 4.0 floor, with no moat and flagged quality concerns.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score recovers above 4.0 as margins stabilize.
CounterPackaged foods are defensive staples with a 4.8% dividend yield that cushions the downside.
The price is above the analyst target of $12.37 (upside of -15.1%), implying the stock is ahead of consensus fair value.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst targets rise toward the price.
CounterA low forward P/E of 9.7x and a recent 44.9% earnings beat could trigger target upgrades.
Revenue is declining about 1% and growth scores only 2.7 out of 10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive above 1% YoY.
CounterVolume declines may be price-driven and temporary as the company resets promotions.
Forward P/E is 9.7x with a PEG of 0.23, but the price is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day average sloping down 2.1%.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings stabilize and the forward P/E holds under 11x.
CounterCheap multiples on shrinking staples earnings often prove to be value traps.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.8 |
| Op margin | 4.6 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
2.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.1 |
| EPS growth | 3.2 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 0.3 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.7 |
| support resistance | 3.8 |
| 52w position | 4.7 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.4 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 3.4 |
| put call | 9.9 |
| implied vol | 4.2 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.5 |
| dividend safety | 3.8 |
- ▸Dividend: 4.7%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:44d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.0>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.68
Upside
-14.2%
Downside
8.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.7=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 7.8 and asymmetric R:R of -1.68.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Insider at 7.3, and Momentum at 6.0; the weakest are Quality at 2.4, Growth at 2.7, and Peer rank at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.68 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score stays below 3.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Target Exceeded
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target stays below -10% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below -3% YoY.
- P4Cheap Valuation Trap
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x while revenue is below 0% growth.