Value
8.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.23
- ▸Attractively valued
CAG · Why this verdict
Why ConAgra Brands (CAG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The 200-day moving average has been declining at approximately 3.8% per month, and the share price remains below that declining average — despite some near-term technical recovery signals, the primary trend is firmly negative. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope turns flat or positive within 2 consecutive months, indicating the long-term downtrend has lost momentum. | →Stable |
| CounterImproving MACD, rising on-balance volume, and an RSI of 60 suggest near-term buying momentum is building even within the confirmed downtrend, which may signal the technical floor is closer than the declining average implies. | ||
Revenue has been declining at approximately 2% year-over-year and the company carries no identified competitive moat, with business quality metrics sitting well below the minimum acceptable threshold — together these suggest the franchise is losing ground in its core packaged foods market rather than stabilizing. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive year-over-year for 2 consecutive fiscal quarters, signaling volume declines or pricing headwinds have stabilized. | →Stable |
| CounterDespite declining revenue, a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 8.5x represents a low absolute valuation floor that may limit further downside, and management may have sufficient cost levers to protect earnings even as top-line growth remains under pressure. | ||
With only approximately 2% headroom to the near-term resistance target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.33-to-1, the current price offers materially more downside risk than upside potential — the setup has essentially reached its ceiling. Bear case | The share price pulls back more than 5% from current levels within 3 months, confirming the resistance ceiling is holding. | →Stable |
| CounterIf rising on-balance volume reflects genuine buying conviction at current prices, the resistance target could be broken to the upside and the unfavorable geometry could prove temporary rather than a reliable cap. | ||
Short interest of approximately 13% of the float signals that a meaningful portion of institutional participants have taken a bearish position — while this reinforces the fundamental concerns, it also creates potential for a rapid short-covering rally on any positive catalyst. Key risks | Short interest falls below 7% of the float within 9 months, indicating the bearish conviction is unwinding. | →Stable |
| CounterA 13% short position at this quality and valuation profile is more likely expressing informed bearish views than speculative excess — elevated institutional short interest on a declining-revenue, below-threshold-quality business rarely unwinds without a genuine fundamental improvement. | ||
The 200-day moving average has been declining at approximately 3.8% per month, and the share price remains below that declining average — despite some near-term technical recovery signals, the primary trend is firmly negative.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns flat or positive within 2 consecutive months, indicating the long-term downtrend has lost momentum.
CounterImproving MACD, rising on-balance volume, and an RSI of 60 suggest near-term buying momentum is building even within the confirmed downtrend, which may signal the technical floor is closer than the declining average implies.
Revenue has been declining at approximately 2% year-over-year and the company carries no identified competitive moat, with business quality metrics sitting well below the minimum acceptable threshold — together these suggest the franchise is losing ground in its core packaged foods market rather than stabilizing.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive year-over-year for 2 consecutive fiscal quarters, signaling volume declines or pricing headwinds have stabilized.
CounterDespite declining revenue, a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 8.5x represents a low absolute valuation floor that may limit further downside, and management may have sufficient cost levers to protect earnings even as top-line growth remains under pressure.
With only approximately 2% headroom to the near-term resistance target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.33-to-1, the current price offers materially more downside risk than upside potential — the setup has essentially reached its ceiling.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The share price pulls back more than 5% from current levels within 3 months, confirming the resistance ceiling is holding.
CounterIf rising on-balance volume reflects genuine buying conviction at current prices, the resistance target could be broken to the upside and the unfavorable geometry could prove temporary rather than a reliable cap.
Short interest of approximately 13% of the float signals that a meaningful portion of institutional participants have taken a bearish position — while this reinforces the fundamental concerns, it also creates potential for a rapid short-covering rally on any positive catalyst.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 7% of the float within 9 months, indicating the bearish conviction is unwinding.
CounterA 13% short position at this quality and valuation profile is more likely expressing informed bearish views than speculative excess — elevated institutional short interest on a declining-revenue, below-threshold-quality business rarely unwinds without a genuine fundamental improvement.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Revenue has been declining approximately 2% year-over-year and business quality sits below the minimum acceptable threshold, with the price having reached its near-term resistance ceiling and reward-to-risk turning clearly unfavorable — the setup argues for patience at best and exit at worst, with high short interest as the primary contrarian counterweight.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.9 |
| Op margin | 4.2 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.6 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
| EPS growth | 9.8 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 9.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.2 |
| erm sentiment | 4.4 |
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $608,902 (0.009% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.2 |
| quality rank | 2.3 |
| growth rank | 1.6 |
Technical
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.3 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 3.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.9 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.9 |
| debt equity | 5.6 |
Catalyst
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.3 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
- ▸Dividend: 976.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.71
Upside
-9.0%
Downside
12.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.1 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Growth at 5.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.6; the weakest are Technical at 1.7, Quality at 2.3, and Peer rank at 2.8. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.71 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Declining Revenue Quality Concerns
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 0% year-over-year for 2 consecutive fiscal quarters.
- P2Target Reached Unfavorable Setup
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target revisions push the resistance target more than 15% above the current price of $13.61.
- P3High Short Interest Squeeze Risk
Trip ifShort interest falls below 5% of the float.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Declining Ma
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope turns positive for 2 consecutive months while the share price holds above it.