A confirmed technical downtrend — death cross, 200-day moving average breach, and falling on-balance volume — is layered on top of a below-minimum quality score of 2.0, making this an exit candidate despite an attractively valued growth profile featuring 29% revenue expansion and a forward price-to-earnings multiple of just 7.2 times.
Thesis pillars
- Below Minimum Business Quality→Stable
- Confirmed Price Downtrend→Stable
- Deep Value Amid Rapid Growth→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
The Baldwin Insurance Group, In (BWIN) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.00: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality.
Baldwin Insurance Group distributes commercial P&C, employee benefits, personal lines, and Medicare insurance through approximately 125 offices in 24 states, serving over 3 million clients. The firm earns commissions as a percentage of premiums and fees, operating through three... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.00: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About The Baldwin Insurance Group, In
About The Baldwin Insurance Group, In
Baldwin Insurance Group distributes insurance across approximately 125 offices in 24 U.S. states, serving over 3 million clients via 5,000 colleagues. The firm has acquired $909 million in cumulative revenue through 37 brokerage partnerships since 2020, including nine Top 100 firms. Three operating segments — Insurance Advisory Solutions, Underwriting/Capacity & Technology Solutions, and Mainstreet Insurance Solutions — cover commercial P&C, employee benefits, personal lines, and Medicare.
Baldwin earns commissions calculated as a percentage of insurance premiums paid to carrier partners, supplemented by fees for management and consulting. In 2025, two insurance carrier partners accounted for approximately 17% of core commissions and fees, while the largest single client represented less than 1% of that revenue base. The Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions segment manufactures over 20 proprietary MGA products distributed internally and externally via API integrations with property management software and other channels, capturing a larger share of underwriting economics per transaction than pure brokerage. Competitors in the institutional channel include Aon plc, Marsh & McLennan Companies, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., and Brown & Brown Inc.; in personal lines, Goosehead Insurance competes directly. At December 31, 2025, Baldwin carried approximately $1.7 billion in total consolidated debt, including a $1.604 billion Term Loan B maturing May 2031 and $600 million in 7.125% Senior Secured Notes.
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Baldwin's 10-K acknowledges the company maintains a concentration in the Southeastern United States even as rapid growth has produced multiple secondary regional clusters. The filing notes that adverse economic conditions, natural disasters, loss trends, or regulatory changes in any single region could affect financial results — a risk that now applies simultaneously to several regions following the pace of geographic expansion. The 125-office network across 24 states provides partial diversification, but the Southeastern presence remains a named risk factor.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
From The Baldwin Insurance Group, In's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — The Baldwin Insurance Group, In
Latest news
- NEWS Micron Technology To $1,500? Here Are 10 Top Analyst Forecasts For Tuesday — benzinga Jun 23, 2026 positive
- NEWS BMO Capital Maintains Market Perform on Baldwin Insurance, Raises Price Target to $25 — benzinga Jun 23, 2026 positive
- NEWS Apogee Therapeutics, Definium Therapeutics, Baldwin Insurance And Other Big Stocks Moving Higher On Monday — benzinga Jun 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS JP Morgan Upgrades Baldwin Insurance to Overweight, Raises Price Target to $28 — benzinga Jun 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS UBS Maintains Buy on Baldwin Insurance, Lowers Price Target to $35 — benzinga Jun 9, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-06T06:50:33Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomertop-2 insurance company partners17%10-K Item 1: 'two insurance company partners accounted for an aggregate of approximately 17% of our core commissions and fees'
- MEDIUMGeographicSoutheastern United States10-K Item 1A: 'we still maintain a concentration in the Southeastern United States'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-04Item 5.02LOWBoard appointed Johnathan Daniel as interim Chief Accounting Officer, effective when incumbent CAO Corbyn Lichon begins maternity leave in mid-to-late June 2026. Clean handoff; Daniel previously served as CFO of acquired CAC Group.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -2.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Volatile — 6.4% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.00: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83. Prior stop was $26.42. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $27.89 (-1.8% upside). Prior stop was $26.42. Stop-loss: $26.42.
Target reached (-9.2% upside); Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0).
The Baldwin Insurance Group, In trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover BWIN with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $30.
What does The Baldwin Insurance Group, In do?Baldwin Insurance Group distributes commercial P&C, employee benefits, personal lines, and Medicare insurance through...
Baldwin Insurance Group distributes commercial P&C, employee benefits, personal lines, and Medicare insurance through approximately 125 offices in 24 states, serving over 3 million clients. The firm earns commissions as a percentage of premiums and fees, operating through three segments: Insurance Advisory Solutions, Underwriting/Capacity & Technology Solutions, and Mainstreet Insurance Solutions.