Accelerant Holdings (ARX) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the ARX stock price target?

Take-profit $15.61 (+21.7% upside). Target $15.61 (+22.0%), stop $12.05 (−6.2%), A.R:R 1.7:1.

Q: What are the risks of investing in ARX?

Negative momentum; Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum.

Q: Is ARX overvalued or undervalued?

Accelerant Holdings trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 15.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Overall verdict: Hold.

Q: What do analysts say about ARX?

14 analysts cover ARX with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $18.

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.80, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Negative momentum.

Accelerant Holdings operates a data-driven specialty insurance risk exchange connecting MGA underwriters (Members) with insurance and reinsurance capacity providers (Risk Capital Partners). As of Dec 31, 2025, it had 280 Members and 95 Risk Capital Partners, charging recurring... Read more

$12.80+21.7% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#5 of 11 Insurance Brokers

Stop $12.05Target $15.61(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.7:1

Analyst target$17.94+40.2%9 analysts

$15.61our TP

$12.80price

$17.94mean

$30

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.80, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Attractive valuation

Strong growth profile

Analyst upside: 22%

Risks

Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)15.2

Mkt Cap$2.9B

EV/EBITDA14.2

Profit Mgn-166.4%

ROE-245.6%

Rev Growth49.2%

Beta—

DividendNone

Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.82neutral

IV77%elevated

Max Pain$35+173.4% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUM
CFO Jay Green replaced by Linda S. Huber, effective March 31, 2026. Huber previously served as CFO at FactSet Research Systems, MSCI Inc., and Moody's Corporation. No disagreement cited.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.415%1.11

Quality4.515%0.67

Growth10.015%1.50

Momentum2.010%0.20

Sentiment7.010%0.70

Insider Activity4.810%0.48

Peer Rank3.210%0.32

Technical Setup5.65%0.28

Risk Profile5.85%0.29

Catalyst5.85%0.29

Overall (Σ contributions)5.85

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd

0.0

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Rsi

4.5

Ma Position

4.5

Volume distribution (falling OBV)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

0.0

Value Rank

3.6

Growth Rank

9.1

Industry growth leader

GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

50 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MASupport $12.42Resistance $15.96

Price Targets

$12

$16

A.Upside+22.0%

A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-13 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ARX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.80, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $15.61 (+22.0%), stop $12.05 (−6.2%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.61 (+21.7% upside). Target $15.61 (+22.0%), stop $12.05 (−6.2%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $12.05.

What are the risks of investing in ARX?

Negative momentum.

Is ARX overvalued or undervalued?

Accelerant Holdings trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 15.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ARX?

14 analysts cover ARX with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Accelerant Holdings do?Accelerant Holdings operates a data-driven specialty insurance risk exchange connecting MGA underwriters (Members) with...