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Accelerant Holdings (ARX) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).

Accelerant Holdings operates a data-driven specialty insurance risk exchange connecting 280 specialty MGA members with 95 Risk Capital Partners across 22 countries, processing $4.19B of Exchange Written Premium in 2025. Revenue ($913M in 2025, up 51%) comes from exchange service... Read more

$16.34+20.1% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#5 of 11 Insurance Brokers
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield-56.62%
Entry $13.70(R/R-minimum solve)Stop $12.74Target $16.46(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1Setup A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$18.39+12.5%9 analysts
$16.46our TP
$16.34price
$18.39mean
$13
$30

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $16.38 has reached target $16.46. No upside to wait for. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val5.7Qual4.5Grw10.0Mom6.7Sent6.8Ins5.0Peer3.0Tech0.5Risk6.05.8OVERALL

Recent Developments — Accelerant Holdings

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.78)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -2.2%), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)18.3
Mkt Cap$3.6B
EV/EBITDA25.4
Profit Mgn-150.6%
ROE-243.2%
Rev Growth59.7%
Beta—
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.06bullish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$3-84.7% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Jay Green to step down March 31, 2026; Linda S. Huber appointed as CFO and principal financial/accounting officer effective March 31, 2026. Successor named with clean handoff. Prior CFO roles include FactSet, MSCI, and Moody's.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
52w Position
0.5
Support Resistance
0.9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Value Rank
2.7
Growth Rank
9.1
Industry growth leader
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
73 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.32Resistance $16.80

Price Targets

$13
$14
$16
A.Upside+0.7%
A.R:R-0.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.3% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $16.38 has reached target $16.46. No upside to wait for. Target $16.46 (+0.7%), stop $12.74 (−28.3%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.46 (+20.1% upside). Target $16.46 (+0.7%), stop $12.74 (−28.3%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $12.74.

What are the risks of investing in ARX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -2.2%), Negative free cash flow.

Is ARX overvalued or undervalued?

Accelerant Holdings trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 18.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ARX?

14 analysts cover ARX with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Accelerant Holdings do?Accelerant Holdings operates a data-driven specialty insurance risk exchange connecting 280 specialty MGA members with...

Accelerant Holdings operates a data-driven specialty insurance risk exchange connecting 280 specialty MGA members with 95 Risk Capital Partners across 22 countries, processing $4.19B of Exchange Written Premium in 2025. Revenue ($913M in 2025, up 51%) comes from exchange service fees, commission income from owned/Mission MGA operations, and underwriting profit on ~10% retained risk.

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