Value
8.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
BWIN · Why this verdict
Why The Baldwin Insurance Group, In (BWIN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality scores at 2.0 out of 10 — below the minimum acceptable threshold of 4.0 — with no identifiable competitive moat and operating margins near zero, indicating the franchise lacks structural durability to support a growth-driven multiple. Quality breakdown | This pillar is falsified if the quality score rises above 4.0 on the back of measurable improvement in operating margin turning consistently positive over 2 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterAn insurance broker in a high-growth phase may show weak quality metrics temporarily while investing in scale; the 29% revenue growth rate implies the top-line engine is working and margins may improve as the business matures. | ||
Price action reflects a confirmed downtrend: the 200-day moving average has been breached with the moving average slope declining at roughly 9% over 30 days, a death cross has triggered a hard block, and on-balance volume is falling — pointing to sustained distribution rather than accumulation. Momentum breakdown | This pillar is falsified if price reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average for more than 10 consecutive trading days while on-balance volume reverses to a rising trend. | →Stable |
| CounterTechnical downtrends can reverse sharply on earnings surprises or positive fundamental news; the 39% gap between current price and the analyst consensus target provides substantial room for a quick recovery if sentiment shifts. | ||
Revenue is growing at 29% year-over-year while the forward price-to-earnings multiple sits at just 7.2 times and the PEG ratio is 0.02 — among the most attractive value-growth combinations in the data, suggesting the market is pricing in failure rather than recognizing a growth trajectory that has so far not broken. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple expands from 7.2 times to at least 12 times over 12 months as earnings estimates are revised upward and quality concerns begin to recede. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.02 is so low it typically reflects deep market skepticism about the durability of the growth rate — and if revenue growth decelerates toward sector averages, the discount may prove rational rather than excessive. | ||
A recent 8-K filing flagging an officer departure or appointment introduces organizational uncertainty at a time when the business is already navigating quality and momentum headwinds — executive transitions can temporarily disrupt execution even at operationally sound companies. Gates warning | This pillar is falsified if execution remains unaffected: EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters following the transition with no additional executive-change 8-K filings. | →Stable |
| CounterA single officer-level change is a routine corporate event; without knowing whether it represents a departure, appointment, or planned succession, assigning it material weight may overstate the organizational risk. | ||
Business quality scores at 2.0 out of 10 — below the minimum acceptable threshold of 4.0 — with no identifiable competitive moat and operating margins near zero, indicating the franchise lacks structural durability to support a growth-driven multiple.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- This pillar is falsified if the quality score rises above 4.0 on the back of measurable improvement in operating margin turning consistently positive over 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterAn insurance broker in a high-growth phase may show weak quality metrics temporarily while investing in scale; the 29% revenue growth rate implies the top-line engine is working and margins may improve as the business matures.
Price action reflects a confirmed downtrend: the 200-day moving average has been breached with the moving average slope declining at roughly 9% over 30 days, a death cross has triggered a hard block, and on-balance volume is falling — pointing to sustained distribution rather than accumulation.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- This pillar is falsified if price reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average for more than 10 consecutive trading days while on-balance volume reverses to a rising trend.
CounterTechnical downtrends can reverse sharply on earnings surprises or positive fundamental news; the 39% gap between current price and the analyst consensus target provides substantial room for a quick recovery if sentiment shifts.
Revenue is growing at 29% year-over-year while the forward price-to-earnings multiple sits at just 7.2 times and the PEG ratio is 0.02 — among the most attractive value-growth combinations in the data, suggesting the market is pricing in failure rather than recognizing a growth trajectory that has so far not broken.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple expands from 7.2 times to at least 12 times over 12 months as earnings estimates are revised upward and quality concerns begin to recede.
CounterA PEG of 0.02 is so low it typically reflects deep market skepticism about the durability of the growth rate — and if revenue growth decelerates toward sector averages, the discount may prove rational rather than excessive.
A recent 8-K filing flagging an officer departure or appointment introduces organizational uncertainty at a time when the business is already navigating quality and momentum headwinds — executive transitions can temporarily disrupt execution even at operationally sound companies.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- This pillar is falsified if execution remains unaffected: EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters following the transition with no additional executive-change 8-K filings.
CounterA single officer-level change is a routine corporate event; without knowing whether it represents a departure, appointment, or planned succession, assigning it material weight may overstate the organizational risk.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A confirmed technical downtrend — death cross, 200-day moving average breach, and falling on-balance volume — is layered on top of a below-minimum quality score of 2.0, making this an exit candidate despite an attractively valued growth profile featuring 29% revenue expansion and a forward price-to-earnings multiple of just 7.2 times.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 2.1 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
9.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.7 |
- ▸Strong growth: 29% YoY
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 2.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 83)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 83 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
| erm sentiment | 4.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $4,581,378 (0.165% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.9 |
| quality rank | 0.8 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
Technical
1.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.6 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 2.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.9 |
| days to cover | 0.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 3.8 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 16%
- ▸High IV: 84%
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.5 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.7>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.61
Upside
-9.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 9.7 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.7, Value at 8.3, and Momentum at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 1.1, Quality at 2.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 2.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Confirmed Price Downtrend
Trip ifPrice reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average for more than 10 consecutive trading days while on-balance volume turns rising.
- P2Below Minimum Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarters with operating margin turning positive.
- P3Deep Value Amid Rapid Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Leadership Transition Uncertainty
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters with 0 additional officer-change 8-K filings in the same period.