Value
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
BWIN · Why this verdict
Why The Baldwin Insurance Group, In (BWIN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BWIN shows 30% revenue growth, but quality is below the 4.0 floor, the price is 11.7% above the analyst target and estimates are being cut 8.3%, so the engine produces a SELL output.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is 2.1/10, below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and near-zero return and margin scores. Quality breakdown | Quality stays below 4/10 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInsurance brokers can improve margins quickly as acquisitions are integrated, and the current ratio score is a healthy 4.2. | ||
At $31.93 the stock is 11.7% above the $28.20 analyst target with 15.0% downside, so there is no analyst-supported upside. Upside pct | Price fails to hold above the analyst target over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward P/E of 12.9x and PEG of 0.04 argue the stock is attractively valued, so analysts may raise targets. | ||
Revenue growth is strong at 30% YoY, scored 10.0/10, though confidence in the growth inputs is low at 0.33. Growth breakdown | Revenue keeps growing at 15% or better. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth may come from acquisitions that do not convert to profit, as return on equity and net margin score 0. | ||
Analyst estimates are down 8.3% over 30 days, and the latest report on 2026-10-27 missed ($0.42 vs $0.43). Catalyst breakdown | Estimates continue to drift lower into the next earnings report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterResults have been near estimates (2 beats and 1 in-line quarter in the last 4), so the miss was small and estimates may stabilize. | ||
Momentum is weak at 4.3/10, with volume distribution (falling OBV) even though the price is above its 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score stays below 5/10. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPrice above the 200-day average and a mid-range RSI of 56 show the trend has not broken. | ||
Quality is 2.1/10, below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and near-zero return and margin scores.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality stays below 4/10 over the next 12 months.
CounterInsurance brokers can improve margins quickly as acquisitions are integrated, and the current ratio score is a healthy 4.2.
At $31.93 the stock is 11.7% above the $28.20 analyst target with 15.0% downside, so there is no analyst-supported upside.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price fails to hold above the analyst target over the next 12 months.
CounterA forward P/E of 12.9x and PEG of 0.04 argue the stock is attractively valued, so analysts may raise targets.
Revenue growth is strong at 30% YoY, scored 10.0/10, though confidence in the growth inputs is low at 0.33.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue keeps growing at 15% or better.
CounterGrowth may come from acquisitions that do not convert to profit, as return on equity and net margin score 0.
Analyst estimates are down 8.3% over 30 days, and the latest report on 2026-10-27 missed ($0.42 vs $0.43).
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Estimates continue to drift lower into the next earnings report.
CounterResults have been near estimates (2 beats and 1 in-line quarter in the last 4), so the miss was small and estimates may stabilize.
Momentum is weak at 4.3/10, with volume distribution (falling OBV) even though the price is above its 200-day average.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score stays below 5/10.
CounterPrice above the 200-day average and a mid-range RSI of 56 show the trend has not broken.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 2.3 |
| Op margin | 0.8 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 30% YoY
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 7.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.2 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.0 |
| quality rank | 0.8 |
| growth rank | 7.3 |
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 9.3 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 3.4 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High IV: 84%
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.4 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -29.9% (30d)
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.81
Upside
-12.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.8=NEGATIVE outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of -0.81.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.8, and Momentum at 7.1; the weakest are Quality at 2.1, Technical at 3.2, and Catalyst at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.81 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $36, more than 12% above the current $31.93.
- P2Quality Below Floor
Trip ifOperating margin rises above 8% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Estimates Being Cut
Trip ifAnalyst estimates rise more than 5% over 30 days.
- P5Weak Volume Support
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 6/10 from current 4.3.