BWIN shows 30% revenue growth, but quality is below the 4.0 floor, the price is 11.7% above the analyst target and estimates are being cut 8.3%, so the engine calls for exit.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Floor→Stable
- Price Above Analyst Target→Stable
- Strong Revenue Growth→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
The Baldwin Insurance Group, In (BWIN) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.14: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Baldwin Insurance Group distributes commercial P&C, employee benefits, personal lines, and Medicare insurance through approximately 125 offices in 24 states, serving over 3 million clients. The firm earns commissions as a percentage of premiums and fees, operating through three... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.14: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About The Baldwin Insurance Group, In
About The Baldwin Insurance Group, In
Baldwin Insurance Group distributes insurance across approximately 125 offices in 24 U.S. states, serving over 3 million clients via 5,000 colleagues. The firm has acquired $909 million in cumulative revenue through 37 brokerage partnerships since 2020, including nine Top 100 firms. Three operating segments — Insurance Advisory Solutions, Underwriting/Capacity & Technology Solutions, and Mainstreet Insurance Solutions — cover commercial P&C, employee benefits, personal lines, and Medicare.
Baldwin earns commissions calculated as a percentage of insurance premiums paid to carrier partners, supplemented by fees for management and consulting. In 2025, two insurance carrier partners accounted for approximately 17% of core commissions and fees, while the largest single client represented less than 1% of that revenue base. The Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions segment manufactures over 20 proprietary MGA products distributed internally and externally via API integrations with property management software and other channels, capturing a larger share of underwriting economics per transaction than pure brokerage. Competitors in the institutional channel include Aon plc, Marsh & McLennan Companies, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., and Brown & Brown Inc.; in personal lines, Goosehead Insurance competes directly. At December 31, 2025, Baldwin carried approximately $1.7 billion in total consolidated debt, including a $1.604 billion Term Loan B maturing May 2031 and $600 million in 7.125% Senior Secured Notes.
Show full overview
Baldwin's 10-K acknowledges the company maintains a concentration in the Southeastern United States even as rapid growth has produced multiple secondary regional clusters. The filing notes that adverse economic conditions, natural disasters, loss trends, or regulatory changes in any single region could affect financial results — a risk that now applies simultaneously to several regions following the pace of geographic expansion. The 125-office network across 24 states provides partial diversification, but the Southeastern presence remains a named risk factor.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
From The Baldwin Insurance Group, In's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — The Baldwin Insurance Group, In
Latest news
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Launches $2.3 Billion Debt Offering for The Baldwin Insurance Group — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS The Baldwin Group Releases Q3 2026 Market Pulse Report — fiscal.ai Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS The Baldwin Insurance Group Reports Q3 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS The Baldwin Insurance Group Reports Preliminary Q3 Revenue — fiscal.ai Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Baldwin Reports Preliminary Q3 Sales Of $480.3M, Up 31% YoY, Adjusted EBITDA Of $106.9M, Up 47% YoY — benzinga Oct 27, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:44:07Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomertop-2 insurance company partners17%10-K Item 1: 'two insurance company partners accounted for an aggregate of approximately 17% of our core commissions and fees'
- MEDIUMGeographicSoutheastern United States10-K Item 1A: 'we still maintain a concentration in the Southeastern United States'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-04Item 5.02LOWBoard appointed Johnathan Daniel as interim Chief Accounting Officer, effective when incumbent CAO Corbyn Lichon begins maternity leave in mid-to-late June 2026. Clean handoff; Daniel previously served as CFO of acquired CAC Group.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Unprofitable operations — net margin -4.7%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.14: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $31.92. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $28.20 reached (−12.3% from $32.14); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $31.92. Stop-loss: $31.92.
Target reached (-12.3% upside); Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).
The Baldwin Insurance Group, In trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 13.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts rate BWIN, with a consensus score of 2.6/5. 6 analysts publish price targets averaging $32.
What does The Baldwin Insurance Group, In do?Baldwin Insurance Group distributes commercial P&C, employee benefits, personal lines, and Medicare insurance through...
Baldwin Insurance Group distributes commercial P&C, employee benefits, personal lines, and Medicare insurance through approximately 125 offices in 24 states, serving over 3 million clients. The firm earns commissions as a percentage of premiums and fees, operating through three segments: Insurance Advisory Solutions, Underwriting/Capacity & Technology Solutions, and Mainstreet Insurance Solutions.