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The Baldwin Insurance Group, In (BWIN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.48: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.71; Below-average business quality.

The Baldwin Insurance Group is an independent insurance distribution firm with ~5,000 colleagues and 125 offices in 24 states, representing over 3 million clients. Revenue comes from commissions and fees for placing commercial P&C, employee benefits, personal lines, and Medicare... Read more

$22.48+13.7% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#11 of 11 Insurance Brokers
Stop $20.88Target $25.52(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$29.33+30.5%9 analysts
$25.52our TP
$22.48price
$29.33mean
$40

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.48: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.71; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)9.3
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA20.4
Profit Mgn-2.2%
ROE-5.2%
Rev Growth5.3%
Beta1.30
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C1.71bearish
IV92%elevated
Max Pain$15-33.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicSoutheastern United States
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our business had historically been highly concentrated in the Southeastern United States. While we still maintain a concentration in the Southeastern United States'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Unprofitable operations — net margin -2.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
1.0
Gross Margin
2.0
Current Ratio
4.5
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
5.6
Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Implied Vol
0.0
Volatility
0.9
Put Call
1.9
Short Interest
2.0
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Days To Cover
3.2
Debt Equity
3.8
Beta
5.8
High short interest justified: 15%Elevated put/call: 1.71High IV: 92%Above max pain $15

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
3.6
Value Rank
9.1

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.8
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dA.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $20.76Resistance $26.96

Price Targets

$21
$26
A.Upside+13.5%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BWIN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.48: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.71; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $20.88. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BWIN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.52 (+13.7% upside). Prior stop was $20.88. Stop-loss: $20.88.

What are the risks of investing in BWIN?

Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0).

Is BWIN overvalued or undervalued?

The Baldwin Insurance Group, In trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BWIN?

16 analysts cover BWIN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $29.

What does The Baldwin Insurance Group, In do?The Baldwin Insurance Group is an independent insurance distribution firm with ~5,000 colleagues and 125 offices in 24...

The Baldwin Insurance Group is an independent insurance distribution firm with ~5,000 colleagues and 125 offices in 24 states, representing over 3 million clients. Revenue comes from commissions and fees for placing commercial P&C, employee benefits, personal lines, and Medicare insurance products.

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