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The Baldwin Insurance Group, In (BWIN) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.56: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Baldwin Insurance Group is a national insurance distribution company providing commercial insurance, employee benefits, and personal insurance through a network of specialty agencies. The company generates revenue primarily through commissions and fees on policies placed with... Read more

$19.56+31.7% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#7 of 11 Insurance Brokers
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield6.12%
Stop $18.67Target $25.71(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$29.56+51.1%9 analysts
$25.71our TP
$19.56price
$29.56mean
$40

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.56: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 24, MACD bearish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — The Baldwin Insurance Group, In

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)7.9
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA56.5
Profit Mgn-2.8%
ROE-6.2%
Rev Growth28.7%
Beta1.23
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.35bullish
IV79%elevated
Max Pain$8-61.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Unprofitable operations — net margin -2.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
2.1
Current Ratio
4.2
Moat
4.2
Piotroski F
5.6
No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
5.5
Value Rank
9.1
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
24 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $19.25Resistance $25.66

Price Targets

$19
$26
A.Upside+31.4%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BWIN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.56: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 24, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $18.67. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BWIN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.71 (+31.7% upside). Prior stop was $18.67. Stop-loss: $18.67.

What are the risks of investing in BWIN?

Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0).

Is BWIN overvalued or undervalued?

The Baldwin Insurance Group, In trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 7.9). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BWIN?

16 analysts cover BWIN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $30.

What does The Baldwin Insurance Group, In do?Baldwin Insurance Group is a national insurance distribution company providing commercial insurance, employee benefits,...

Baldwin Insurance Group is a national insurance distribution company providing commercial insurance, employee benefits, and personal insurance through a network of specialty agencies. The company generates revenue primarily through commissions and fees on policies placed with carrier partners.

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