Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.27: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Rich valuation; Negative price momentum.
Neptune Insurance Holdings is a flood insurance MGA offering primary flood, excess flood, and parametric earthquake insurance through a nationwide network of independent agents. The company underwrites via its AI-driven Triton platform on behalf of 40 capacity providers, with... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.27: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Rich valuation; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierinsurance agent and broker partners96%10-K Item 1A: 'Our insurance agent and broker partners drive over 96% of our policy sales'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Volatile — 5.2% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.27: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Rich valuation; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $23.50. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $28.66 (+13.4% upside). Prior stop was $23.50. Stop-loss: $23.50.
Concentration risk — Supplier: insurance agent and broker partners (96.0%); Target reached (-0.7% upside); Risk below floor (2.5 < 3.0).
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 40.4). TrendMatrix value score: 2.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover NP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $29.
What does Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. do?Neptune Insurance Holdings is a flood insurance MGA offering primary flood, excess flood, and parametric earthquake...
Neptune Insurance Holdings is a flood insurance MGA offering primary flood, excess flood, and parametric earthquake insurance through a nationwide network of independent agents. The company underwrites via its AI-driven Triton platform on behalf of 40 capacity providers, with 33.7% organic revenue growth, 23.4% net income margin, and 59.5% Adjusted EBITDA margin in 2025. Neptune retains no balance sheet insurance risk.