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Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.70, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: capacity providers (insurance/reinsurance panel); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Neptune Insurance Holdings is a data-driven managing general agent (MGA) specializing in private flood insurance, distributed through a nationwide agency network. It underwrites policies on behalf of 40 capacity providers (including 32 reinsurers) under 8 insurance programs... Read more

$26.70+12.4% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#10 of 11 Insurance Brokers
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
Stop $24.92Target $30.12(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$30.25+13.3%12 analysts
$30.12our TP
$26.70price
$30.25mean
$25
$35

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.70, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: capacity providers (insurance/reinsurance panel); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: capacity providers (insurance/reinsurance panel)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak overall score: 4.9/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)41.5
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA50.2
Profit Mgn20.7%
ROE
Rev Growth28.8%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartycapacity providers (insurance/reinsurance panel)
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our business may be harmed if one or more of our relationships with capacity providers are terminated or are reduced, if we fail to maintain good relationships with such capacity providers, if we become dependent upon a limited number of capacity providers'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
2.7
Analyst Target
4.0
Forward P/E: 41.5xExpensive valuation

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
4.5
Obv
9.3
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
2.4
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Erm
6.0
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $24.01Resistance $30.73

Price Targets

$25
$30
A.Upside+12.8%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.8% upside)
! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.70, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: capacity providers (insurance/reinsurance panel); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $30.12 (+12.8%), stop $24.92 (−7.1%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.12 (+12.4% upside). Target $30.12 (+12.8%), stop $24.92 (−7.1%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $24.92.

What are the risks of investing in NP?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: capacity providers (insurance/reinsurance panel); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Is NP overvalued or undervalued?

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 41.5). TrendMatrix value score: 2.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NP?

21 analysts cover NP with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $30.

What does Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. do?Neptune Insurance Holdings is a data-driven managing general agent (MGA) specializing in private flood insurance,...

Neptune Insurance Holdings is a data-driven managing general agent (MGA) specializing in private flood insurance, distributed through a nationwide agency network. It underwrites policies on behalf of 40 capacity providers (including 32 reinsurers) under 8 insurance programs without taking balance sheet risk; revenue is fee-based commissions and policyholder fees, generating $159.6M revenue and 59.5% Adjusted EBITDA margin in fiscal 2025. Its AI-powered Triton underwriting engine delivered a lifetime written loss ratio of 24.7% since inception.

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