Builders FirstSource faces a convergence of negative signals: revenue declining at -10%, two consecutive earnings misses in the most recent quarters, a confirmed price downtrend, and an overall business quality score that has fallen below the minimum threshold. The stock screens inexpensive on a forward P/E of 13.2x and PEG of 0.11, but the valuation discount reflects deteriorating fundamentals rather than a mispricing.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue In Double Digit Decline→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
- Confirmed Downtrend Extreme Put Hedging→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $84.69: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Builders FirstSource manufactures and distributes structural building products for professional homebuilders across approximately 585 U.S. locations in 43 states, operating as a single reportable segment. Revenue spans manufactured products, windows/doors/millwork, specialty... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $84.69: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Builders FirstSource, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Is Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR) a Bargain After 5.4% Drop? GF Value Says Undervalued - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS BofA Retains a Neutral Rating on Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) - Insider Monkey — Insider Monkey neutral
- NEWS BofA Retains a Neutral Rating on Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Pictet Asset Management Holding SA Buys 500,491 Shares of Builders FirstSource, Inc. $BLDR - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Earnings To Watch: Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Reports Q1 Results Tomorrow - StockStory — StockStory neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T06:00:34Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductlumber and lumber sheet goods26%10-K Item 1A: 'Our lumber and lumber sheet goods product category represented 26% of total net sales for the year ended December 31, 2025.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-05Item 5.02LOWDirector Mark A. Alexander resigned from the Board effective June 3, 2026 due to health reasons. No disagreement with Company operations, policies, or practices cited. No successor named.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-18Item 5.02MEDIUMCOO Steve Herron to retire Dec 31, 2026; Mike Hiller appointed COO-Designate effective May 18, 2026 with clean succession. Coley O'Brien appointed CHRO to succeed Hiller effective May 18, 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $84.69: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Prior stop was $78.76. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $87.64 (+3.5% upside). Prior stop was $78.76. Stop-loss: $78.76.
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).
Builders FirstSource, Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.3 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
32 analysts cover BLDR with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $97.
What does Builders FirstSource, Inc. do?Builders FirstSource manufactures and distributes structural building products for professional homebuilders across...
Builders FirstSource manufactures and distributes structural building products for professional homebuilders across approximately 585 U.S. locations in 43 states, operating as a single reportable segment. Revenue spans manufactured products, windows/doors/millwork, specialty items, and lumber sold to production and custom homebuilders; the top 10 customers represented 14% of 2025 net sales.