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Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $70.18: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 7.56; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Builders FirstSource is a leading provider of building materials to professional homebuilders, operating ~585 locations in 43 U.S. states. It manufactures trusses, wall panels, and windows; distributes lumber, sheet goods, and specialty products; and provides installation... Read more

$70.18+24.9% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#14 of 18 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.49%
Stop $67.76Target $87.64(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$97.38+38.8%21 analysts
$87.64our TP
$70.18price
$97.38mean
$133

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $70.18: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 7.56; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.8
P/E (Fwd)11.9
Mkt Cap$7.5B
EV/EBITDA10.5
Profit Mgn2.0%
ROE7.0%
Rev Growth-10.1%
Beta1.49
DividendNone
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C7.56bearish
IV64%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCommoditylumber and lumber sheet goods26%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our lumber and lumber sheet goods product category represented 26% of total net sales for the year ended December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.8
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.1
Quality Rank
1.7
Value Rank
7.1

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Operating Margin
0.2
Net Margin
1.0
Gross Margin
2.0
Roe
2.3
Roa
2.3
Moat
3.1
Current Ratio
6.3
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 220% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesMomentum 1.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
23 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $69.86Resistance $94.97

Price Targets

$68
$88
A.Upside+24.9%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BLDR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $70.18: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 7.56; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $67.76. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BLDR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $87.64 (+24.9% upside). Prior stop was $67.76. Stop-loss: $67.76.

What are the risks of investing in BLDR?

Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is BLDR overvalued or undervalued?

Builders FirstSource, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.8 (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BLDR?

31 analysts cover BLDR with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $97.

What does Builders FirstSource, Inc. do?Builders FirstSource is a leading provider of building materials to professional homebuilders, operating ~585 locations...

Builders FirstSource is a leading provider of building materials to professional homebuilders, operating ~585 locations in 43 U.S. states. It manufactures trusses, wall panels, and windows; distributes lumber, sheet goods, and specialty products; and provides installation services. Lumber and lumber sheet goods represented 26% of 2025 net sales; top-10 customers were 14% of net sales.

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