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Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $79.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Builders FirstSource is a leading provider of structural building products, manufactured components (trusses, wall panels, engineered wood), and distribution services to professional builders in US new residential construction and repair/remodeling. Operates approximately 585... Read more

$79.60+32.1% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#9 of 18 Building Products & Equipment
Stop $74.20Target $105.21(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.1:1
Analyst target$116.90+46.9%21 analysts
$105.21our TP
$79.60price
$116.90mean
$150

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $79.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 40, MACD bearish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 32%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.4
P/E (Fwd)11.5
Mkt Cap$9.0B
EV/EBITDA10.3
Profit Mgn2.9%
ROE10.1%
Rev Growth-12.1%
Beta1.64
DividendNone
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.58bearish
IV72%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCommoditylumber and lumber sheet goods26%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our lumber and lumber sheet goods product category represented 26% of total net sales for the year ended December 31, 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
1.8
Volume
3.3
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.1
Quality Rank
2.0
Value Rank
8.3

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.2
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $76.50Resistance $94.97

Price Targets

$74
$105
A.Upside+32.2%
A.R:R3.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BLDR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $79.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 40, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $74.20. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BLDR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $105.21 (+32.1% upside). Prior stop was $74.20. Stop-loss: $74.20.

What are the risks of investing in BLDR?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is BLDR overvalued or undervalued?

Builders FirstSource, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.4 (forward 11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BLDR?

31 analysts cover BLDR with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $117.

What does Builders FirstSource, Inc. do?Builders FirstSource is a leading provider of structural building products, manufactured components (trusses, wall...

Builders FirstSource is a leading provider of structural building products, manufactured components (trusses, wall panels, engineered wood), and distribution services to professional builders in US new residential construction and repair/remodeling. Operates approximately 585 locations in 43 states.

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