Builders FirstSource shows excellent cash conversion and a sharp +44.8% earnings beat in its latest quarter, but weak quality, declining revenue, a 51% drawdown with a downtrending 200-day average, and a price 7.8% above the analyst target keep the setup unattractive.
Thesis pillars
- Excellent Cash Conversion Low Quality↓Deteriorating
- Declining Revenue Weak Growth↓Deteriorating
- Earnings Volatility Latest Beat→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026
Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $63.61: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Builders FirstSource manufactures and distributes structural building products for professional homebuilders across approximately 585 U.S. locations in 43 states, operating as a single reportable segment. Revenue spans manufactured products, windows/doors/millwork, specialty... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $63.61: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.50, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity 105d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated Nov 2, 2026Recent Developments — Builders FirstSource, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Stifel Raises Price Target on Builders FirstSource to $58 — fiscal.ai Nov 2, 2026 positive
- NEWS Stifel Maintains Hold on Builders FirstSource, Raises Price Target to $58 — benzinga Nov 2, 2026 positive
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Equal-Weight on Builders FirstSource, Raises Price Target to $58 — fiscal.ai Oct 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS Wall Street Analysts Update Price Targets for Builders FirstSource — fiscal.ai Oct 30, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Truist Securities Maintains Buy on Builders FirstSource, Raises Price Target to $75 — benzinga Oct 30, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 2, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T12:10:01Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductlumber and lumber sheet goods26%10-K Item 1A: 'Our lumber and lumber sheet goods product category represented 26% of total net sales for the year ended December 31, 2025.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-05Item 5.02LOWDirector Mark A. Alexander resigned from the Board effective June 3, 2026 due to health reasons. No disagreement with Company operations, policies, or practices cited. No successor named.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-18Item 5.02MEDIUMCOO Steve Herron to retire Dec 31, 2026; Mike Hiller appointed COO-Designate effective May 18, 2026 with clean succession. Coley O'Brien appointed CHRO to succeed Hiller effective May 18, 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Revenue shrinking — -2.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $63.61: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Prior stop was $59.16. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $60.71 reached (−4.6% from $63.61); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $59.16. Stop-loss: $59.16.
Target reached (-4.6% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).
Builders FirstSource, Inc. trades at a P/E of 171.9 (forward 26.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
32 analysts rate BLDR, with a consensus score of 3.5/5. 22 analysts publish price targets averaging $67.
What does Builders FirstSource, Inc. do?Builders FirstSource manufactures and distributes structural building products for professional homebuilders across...
Builders FirstSource manufactures and distributes structural building products for professional homebuilders across approximately 585 U.S. locations in 43 states, operating as a single reportable segment. Revenue spans manufactured products, windows/doors/millwork, specialty items, and lumber sold to production and custom homebuilders; the top 10 customers represented 14% of 2025 net sales.