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BBYBest Buy Co., Inc.Sell5.3·$85.43+1.18%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Best Buy has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average positive surprise near 5%, but the stock has reached near-term resistance with virtually no remaining upside in the current risk/reward framework, making the strong operating execution difficult to monetize at current prices.

Thesis pillars

  • Four Quarter Earnings Beat StreakImproving
  • Roe Elevated But Quality Lacks MoatStable
  • Near Term Upside Exhausted At ResistanceStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $85.43 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.2% away).

We were incorporated in the state of Minnesota in 1966. We are driven by our purpose to enrich lives through technology and our vision to personalize and humanize technology solutions for every stage of life. We accomplish this by leveraging our unique combination of tech... Read more

$85.43-16.6% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#14 of 23 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield6.35%
IncomeYield4.55%(5y avg 4.39%)Payout70.56%
Stop $80.33Target $85.60(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$79.15-7.4%20 analysts
$85.60our TP
$85.43price
$79.15mean
$60
$90

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $85.43 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.2% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 27, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.2% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.8
P/E (Fwd)12.1
Mkt Cap$18.0B
EV/EBITDA7.7
Profit Mgn2.7%
ROE39.1%
Rev Growth1.9%
Beta1.33
Dividend4.55%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.47bearish
IV43%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-22Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Exhibit No. | | Description of Exhibit [99.1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764478/000076447826000027/exhibit991newsrelease622.htm) | | [News release issued June 22](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764478/000076447826000027/exhibit991newsrelease622.htm)[, 2026](https://www.sec.g...
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-22Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On April 22, 2026, Best Buy Co., Inc.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEINSIDER 0.84%=HEAVYMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.3>=4.5NEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $74.75Resistance $87.35

Price Targets

$80
$86
A.Upside-16.6%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-16.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! Insider activity: 0.84%=heavy

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-27 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BBY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $85.43 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.2% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $80.33. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BBY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $85.60 (-16.6% upside). Prior stop was $80.33. Stop-loss: $80.33.

What are the risks of investing in BBY?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.2% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Is BBY overvalued or undervalued?

Best Buy Co., Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.8 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BBY?

30 analysts cover BBY with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $79.

What does Best Buy Co., Inc. do?We were incorporated in the state of Minnesota in 1966. We are driven by our purpose to enrich lives through technology...

We were incorporated in the state of Minnesota in 1966. We are driven by our purpose to enrich lives through technology and our vision to personalize and humanize technology solutions for every stage of life. We accomplish this by leveraging our unique combination of tech expertise and a human touch to meet our customers' everyday needs, whether they come to us online, visit our stores or invite us into their homes. We have operations in the U.S. and Canada.

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