Avista Corporation's current setup is unattractive: the reward-to-risk ratio stands at 0.55 to 1 with only 2.7% headroom to near-term resistance, free cash flow is negative, and revenue declined 8% year-over-year — a combination that argues for reducing exposure rather than adding.
Thesis pillars
- Unfavorable Risk Reward At Resistance→Stable
- Negative Free Cash Flow→Stable
- Declining Revenue Below Growth Floor→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Avista Corporation (AVA) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Utilities · Utilities - Diversified
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $41.40 — A.R:R is negative (-2.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Snettisham hydroelectric project.
Avista Corporation operates as a regulated electric and natural gas utility serving approximately 429,000 electric and 386,000 natural gas customers across eastern Washington, northern Idaho, and portions of Oregon and Montana, plus electric service in Juneau, Alaska via... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $41.40 — A.R:R is negative (-2.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Snettisham hydroelectric project. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Avista Corporation
About Avista Corporation
Avista Corporation served approximately 429,000 electric and 386,000 natural gas customers across a 34,000-square-mile service territory at the end of 2025, with an electric generation mix of 48% hydroelectric, 37% thermal, and 15% other renewables. Following the January 1, 2026 transfer of its 15% interest in Colstrip coal units to NorthWestern Corporation, that mix shifted to 53% hydroelectric, 32% thermal, and 15% other renewables, reducing coal exposure. The company employed 1,929 people at Avista Utilities, with bargaining unit employees comprising 36% of the workforce.
Avista earns revenue through regulated electric distribution and transmission and natural gas distribution services under rates authorized by the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission (WUTC) and the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC), with smaller regulated operations in Oregon and Montana. Hydroelectric generation from owned facilities on the Clark Fork and Spokane rivers typically provides the lowest-cost electricity per MWh, but availability depends on snowpack and streamflow; shortfalls require more expensive thermal dispatch or wholesale market purchases. The company's subsidiary AEL&P provides regulated electric service in Juneau, Alaska — an isolated system with no interconnection to the regional grid — relying primarily on hydroelectric generation backed by diesel capacity. In May 2025 Avista issued an RFP for up to 425 MW of new capacity resources to address load growth projected in its 2025 Integrated Resource Plan.
Show full overview
Avista's 2025 Electric IRP projects the need for approximately 490 MW of additional generating capacity by 2030 and 950 MW by 2035, while retiring the 66 MW Northeast CT peaking unit in 2030. The company targets serving Washington customers with 100% clean electricity by 2045, subject to Clean Energy Transformation Act compliance. Washington's CETA already prohibits coal-sourced energy for retail customers effective after December 31, 2025 — a mandate Avista addressed through the Colstrip divestiture — but meeting the 2045 target will require significant new resources including hydrogen-based fuels, wind, solar, nuclear, and long-term energy storage, the availability and cost of which remain uncertain.
See also: Utilities · Utilities - Diversified
From Avista Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Avista Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Wine Wednesday: 20th anniversary of the Eola-Amity Hills AVA - KOIN.com — KOIN.com neutral
- NEWS Moody Aldrich Partners LLC Buys 50,133 Shares of Avista Corporation $AVA - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Lam Research CLO Ava Harter sells $1.55m in stock - Investing.com — Investing.com neutral
- NEWS Avista (AVA) Expected to Announce Quarterly Earnings on Tuesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Ava Risk Group Secures Growth Funding as Q3 Orders Lag but Pipeline Remains Strong - TipRanks — TipRanks positive
Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCommodityhydroelectric generation48%10-K Item 1: 'generation resource mix (including contracts for power purchases) was approximately 48 percent hydroelectric, 37 percent thermal and 15 percent other renewables'
- HIGHSupplierSnettisham hydroelectric project10-K Item 1A: 'a single hydroelectric power generation facility, the Snettisham hydroelectric project, provides approximately two-thirds of AEL&P's hydroelectric power generation'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -7.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $41.40 — A.R:R is negative (-2.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Snettisham hydroelectric project. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $39.44. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $42.09 (+1.7% upside). Prior stop was $39.44. Stop-loss: $39.44.
Concentration risk — Supplier: Snettisham hydroelectric project; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.8% away).
Avista Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.5 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover AVA with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $42.
What does Avista Corporation do?Avista Corporation operates as a regulated electric and natural gas utility serving approximately 429,000 electric and...
Avista Corporation operates as a regulated electric and natural gas utility serving approximately 429,000 electric and 386,000 natural gas customers across eastern Washington, northern Idaho, and portions of Oregon and Montana, plus electric service in Juneau, Alaska via subsidiary AEL&P. Revenue derives from regulated cost-of-service rates authorized by the Washington UTC and Idaho PUC, with a generation mix that was 48% hydroelectric, 37% thermal, and 15% other renewables at year-end 2025.