Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 4.2 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.7x
- ▸PEG: 2.27
AVA · Why this verdict
Why Avista (AVA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Avista is a regulated utility with strong earnings growth and recovering momentum, but price is 7.8% above the analyst target, cash flow is negative relative to earnings and earnings land in 3 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 24.0%, and earnings growth scores 10 out of 10. Earnings track record | EPS meets or beats estimates at the 2026-11-04 report. | →Stable |
| CounterOne quarter missed by 15% (0.87 versus 1.02), and revenue growth scores only 2.6, so earnings gains may rely on cost or rate effects. | ||
Price of $37.57 is 7.8% above the $34.65 analyst target, so upside to the target is negative and reward-to-risk is below zero. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised or the stock retraces toward the $36.91 entry level. | →Stable |
| CounterUtility targets often lag, and the engine's 32% margin of safety suggests value remains on a fundamental basis. | ||
Earnings quality is a red flag, with free cash flow at -104% of net income and no competitive moat, holding quality at 4.5. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income improves above 0% as capital spending moderates. | →Stable |
| CounterRegulated utilities fund heavy infrastructure spending ahead of rate recovery, so negative free cash flow is common and not necessarily distress. | ||
Supplier concentration is flagged on the Snettisham hydroelectric project, one HIGH and one MED concentration risk in the annual filing. Bear case | The Snettisham supply arrangement continues without disruption over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLoss or repricing of a single hydro supply source could force costlier power purchases that regulators may not fully pass through. | ||
Momentum is 6.6 with rising on-balance volume and a recovering death cross, though price is still below a flat 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum stays above 5.5. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI of 66 with price still below the 200-day average and implied volatility of 95% means the recovery could fade into earnings. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 24.0%, and earnings growth scores 10 out of 10.
→StableEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates at the 2026-11-04 report.
CounterOne quarter missed by 15% (0.87 versus 1.02), and revenue growth scores only 2.6, so earnings gains may rely on cost or rate effects.
Price of $37.57 is 7.8% above the $34.65 analyst target, so upside to the target is negative and reward-to-risk is below zero.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised or the stock retraces toward the $36.91 entry level.
CounterUtility targets often lag, and the engine's 32% margin of safety suggests value remains on a fundamental basis.
Earnings quality is a red flag, with free cash flow at -104% of net income and no competitive moat, holding quality at 4.5.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income improves above 0% as capital spending moderates.
CounterRegulated utilities fund heavy infrastructure spending ahead of rate recovery, so negative free cash flow is common and not necessarily distress.
Supplier concentration is flagged on the Snettisham hydroelectric project, one HIGH and one MED concentration risk in the annual filing.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The Snettisham supply arrangement continues without disruption over 12 months.
CounterLoss or repricing of a single hydro supply source could force costlier power purchases that regulators may not fully pass through.
Momentum is 6.6 with rising on-balance volume and a recovering death cross, though price is still below a flat 200-day average.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum stays above 5.5.
CounterRSI of 66 with price still below the 200-day average and implied volatility of 95% means the recovery could fade into earnings.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.8 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 9.4 |
| Op margin | 5.3 |
| Net margin | 5.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -104% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: -12 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.5 |
| Volume | 9.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $174,098 (0.005% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 7.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 8.2 |
| put call | 8.0 |
| implied vol | 2.1 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
- ▸High IV: 67%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.7 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.9>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-1.12
Upside
-9.1%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:7.9>=5.5. Top dim: Momentum at 7.9; weakest: Technical at 3.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.9, Insider at 7.3, and Value at 6.4; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Quality at 4.5, and Peer rank at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Growth And Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds the analyst target by more than 15% from the current 7.8%.
- P3Negative Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income stays below -150% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Hydro Supplier Concentration
Trip ifNet margin falls below 3% from supplier disruption costs.
- P5Recovering Momentum
Trip ifPrice drops below the $35.59 stop level from the current $37.57.