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Avista Corporation (AVA) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Diversified

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $40.80 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Snettisham hydroelectric project.

Avista Corporation is primarily an electric and natural gas utility serving eastern Washington, northern Idaho, and parts of Oregon and Montana through Avista Utilities, plus electric service in Juneau, Alaska through subsidiary AEL&P. Revenue is regulated and established by... Read more

$40.80+1.6% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#6 of 7 Utilities - Diversified
Stop $39.22Target $41.47(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1
Analyst target$42.80+4.9%5 analysts
$41.47our TP
$40.80price
$42.80mean
$39
$50

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $40.80 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Snettisham hydroelectric project. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Snettisham hydroelectric project
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.0
P/E (Fwd)14.5
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA10.3
Profit Mgn9.8%
ROE7.3%
Rev Growth0.0%
Beta0.21
Dividend4.84%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.33bearish
IV44%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierSnettisham hydroelectric project
    10-K Item 1A: 'a single hydroelectric power generation facility, the Snettisham hydroelectric project, provides approximately two-thirds of AEL&P's hydroelectric power generation'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.5
Earnings Growth
2.6

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $39.97Resistance $42.32

Price Targets

$39
$41
A.Upside+1.6%
A.R:R-1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.8% upside)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $40.80 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Snettisham hydroelectric project. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $39.22. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AVA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.47 (+1.6% upside). Prior stop was $39.22. Stop-loss: $39.22.

What are the risks of investing in AVA?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Snettisham hydroelectric project; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Is AVA overvalued or undervalued?

Avista Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.0 (forward 14.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AVA?

14 analysts cover AVA with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Avista Corporation do?Avista Corporation is primarily an electric and natural gas utility serving eastern Washington, northern Idaho, and...

Avista Corporation is primarily an electric and natural gas utility serving eastern Washington, northern Idaho, and parts of Oregon and Montana through Avista Utilities, plus electric service in Juneau, Alaska through subsidiary AEL&P. Revenue is regulated and established by state utility commissions in Washington, Idaho, Oregon, Montana, and Alaska.

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