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Avista Corporation (AVA) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Diversified

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $41.19 — A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).

Avista Corporation is a regulated electric and natural gas utility primarily serving eastern Washington, northern Idaho, parts of Oregon and Montana through Avista Utilities, plus Juneau, Alaska through subsidiary AEL&P. At end of 2025, Avista Utilities served approximately... Read more

$41.19-1.0% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#5 of 5 Utilities - Diversified
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-5.06%
IncomeYield4.77%(5y avg 4.67%)Payout78.19%
Stop $39.24Target $40.28(resistance)A.R:R -2.1:1
Analyst target$41.83+1.6%6 analysts
$40.28our TP
$41.19price
$41.83mean
$37
$50

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $41.19 — A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Avista Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.4
P/E (Fwd)14.8
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA10.3
Profit Mgn10.7%
ROE7.6%
Rev Growth-7.6%
Beta0.23
Dividend4.77%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.28bullish
IV43%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -7.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.6
Earnings Growth
4.7
Declining revenue: -8%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 477.0%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
4.0
Quality Rank
6.0
GatesA.R:R -2.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $39.49Resistance $41.10

Price Targets

$39
$40
A.Upside-2.2%
A.R:R-2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $41.19 — A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $39.24. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AVA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.28 (-1.0% upside). Prior stop was $39.24. Stop-loss: $39.24.

What are the risks of investing in AVA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Is AVA overvalued or undervalued?

Avista Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.4 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AVA?

14 analysts cover AVA with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $42.

What does Avista Corporation do?Avista Corporation is a regulated electric and natural gas utility primarily serving eastern Washington, northern...

Avista Corporation is a regulated electric and natural gas utility primarily serving eastern Washington, northern Idaho, parts of Oregon and Montana through Avista Utilities, plus Juneau, Alaska through subsidiary AEL&P. At end of 2025, Avista Utilities served approximately 429,000 electric and 386,000 natural gas retail customers across a 34,000-square-mile territory. Generation mix was approximately 48% hydroelectric, 37% thermal, and 15% other renewables.

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