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The AES Corporation (AES) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Diversified

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.47: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.24; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

AES is a global energy company operating generation (34,740 MW across renewables, gas, coal) and regulated utilities (AES Indiana, AES Ohio, El Salvador) in four SBUs. Revenue comes from long-term power purchase agreements and regulated tariffs. In March 2026, AES entered a... Read more

$14.47-1.7% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#5 of 7 Utilities - Diversified
Stop $14.36Target $14.23(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$15.11+4.4%9 analysts
$14.23our TP
$14.47price
$15.11mean
$14
$16

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.47: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.24; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-9.2% upside)
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.0
P/E (Fwd)6.0
Mkt Cap$10.3B
EV/EBITDA13.7
Profit Mgn7.4%
ROE2.0%
Rev Growth4.7%
Beta1.01
Dividend4.87%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.24bearish
IV66%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-16Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CAO Sherry Kohan mutually agreed to cease as SVP and Chief Accounting Officer effective May 7, 2026, transitioning to CFO of AES U.S. Utilities. Aubrey Jarred appointed VP and Controller as successor. Clean handoff.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-02Item 1.01HIGH
    AES entered Agreement and Plan of Merger with Horizon Parent L.P. (jointly controlled by Global Infrastructure Management and EQT Infrastructure VI). Each share of AES common stock to be converted into $15.00 cash. Change of control transaction.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roe
0.7
Roa
1.7
Current Ratio
3.1
Net Margin
3.7
Moat
5.0
Operating Margin
6.6
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -339% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.3
Bollinger
3.3
52w Position
6.4
GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.17Resistance $14.52

Price Targets

$14
$14
A.Upside-1.7%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AES stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.47: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.24; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $14.36. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AES stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.23 (-1.7% upside). Prior stop was $14.36. Stop-loss: $14.36.

What are the risks of investing in AES?

Target reached (-9.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is AES overvalued or undervalued?

The AES Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.0 (forward 6.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AES?

16 analysts cover AES with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $15.

What does The AES Corporation do?AES is a global energy company operating generation (34,740 MW across renewables, gas, coal) and regulated utilities...

AES is a global energy company operating generation (34,740 MW across renewables, gas, coal) and regulated utilities (AES Indiana, AES Ohio, El Salvador) in four SBUs. Revenue comes from long-term power purchase agreements and regulated tariffs. In March 2026, AES entered a definitive merger agreement to be acquired at $15.00/share by a Global Infrastructure Management and EQT Infrastructure VI consortium.

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