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The AES Corporation (AES) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Diversified

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.58: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

AES Corporation is a global power generator operating 34,740 MW across renewables (Renewables SBU, 17.8 GW in operation), regulated utilities (AES Indiana, AES Ohio, AES El Salvador serving 2.7M customers), energy infrastructure, and new energy technologies. The company entered... Read more

$14.58-1.9% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#3 of 5 Utilities - Diversified
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-28.54%
IncomeYield4.83%(5y avg 3.79%)Payout36.66%sustainable
Stop $14.39Target $14.29(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$15.11+3.6%9 analysts
$14.29our TP
$14.58price
$15.11mean
$14
$16

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.58: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — The AES Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-9.8% upside)
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.6
P/E (Fwd)6.1
Mkt Cap$10.4B
EV/EBITDA12.9
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE5.3%
Rev Growth8.7%
Beta0.96
Dividend4.83%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.82neutral
IV46%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02HIGH
    AES entered Agreement and Plan of Merger with Horizon Parent L.P. (controlled by Global Infrastructure Management and EQT Infrastructure VI) on March 1, 2026. Each share to receive $15.00 cash. Change of control pending regulatory and shareholder approvals.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-16Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CAO Sherry Kohan stepping down May 7, 2026 to become CFO of AES US Utilities. Aubrey Jarred appointed VP and Controller effective same date. Clean handoff; no disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.3
52w Position
6.7

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roe
1.8
Roa
1.8
Current Ratio
2.9
Moat
4.2
Net Margin
5.4
Piotroski F
6.7
Operating Margin
7.5
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -219% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
83 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.24Resistance $14.58

Price Targets

$14
$14
A.Upside-2.0%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AES stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.58: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $14.39. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AES stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.29 (-1.9% upside). Prior stop was $14.39. Stop-loss: $14.39.

What are the risks of investing in AES?

Target reached (-9.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is AES overvalued or undervalued?

The AES Corporation trades at a P/E of 7.6 (forward 6.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AES?

16 analysts cover AES with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $15.

What does The AES Corporation do?AES Corporation is a global power generator operating 34,740 MW across renewables (Renewables SBU, 17.8 GW in...

AES Corporation is a global power generator operating 34,740 MW across renewables (Renewables SBU, 17.8 GW in operation), regulated utilities (AES Indiana, AES Ohio, AES El Salvador serving 2.7M customers), energy infrastructure, and new energy technologies. The company entered a definitive merger agreement on March 1, 2026 with Horizon Parent L.P. (Global Infrastructure Management + EQT) at $15.00/share.

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