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AUAngloGold Ashanti PLCHold6.9·$84.65+4.65%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

AngloGold Ashanti presents a compelling combination of exceptional profitability, wide moat characteristics, and steep growth alongside an attractive forward multiple — but a recent gap-up has compressed near-term asymmetry to below the minimum entry threshold, and three prior quarterly misses create uncertainty about whether earnings delivery has durably improved.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Earnings GrowthStable
  • Thin Asymmetry Blocks New EntryStable
  • Wide Moat Elite ProfitabilityStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AngloGold Ashanti PLC (AU) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $84.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Consecutive earnings misses (3).

AngloGold Ashanti plc operates as a gold mining company in Africa, Australia, and the Americas. It explores for gold, as well as by-products, including silver and sulphuric acid. The company's flagship property includes 100% owned the Geita mine located in the Lake Victoria... Read more

$84.65+21.7% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#7 of 41 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield8.32%
IncomeYield5.43%(5y avg 2.11%)Payout52.35%sustainable
Stop $78.72Target $102.99(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$118.38+39.8%8 analysts
$102.99our TP
$84.65price
$118.38mean
$75
$155

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $84.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 31, 202627d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.4
P/E (Fwd)8.0
Mkt Cap$42.8B
EV/EBITDA6.7
Profit Mgn31.1%
ROE43.0%
Rev Growth64.9%
Beta0.67
Dividend5.43%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.36bearish
IV62%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·3 ceiling hits

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.5
Value Rank
5.3
Quality Rank
7.0
Superior ROE vs peers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
3.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 543.0%
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 27d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $77.13Resistance $97.19

Price Targets

$79
$103
A.Upside+21.7%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 4.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (27d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AU stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $84.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $102.99 (+21.7%), stop $78.72 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $102.99 (+21.7% upside). Target $102.99 (+21.7%), stop $78.72 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Stop-loss: $78.72.

What are the risks of investing in AU?

Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is AU overvalued or undervalued?

AngloGold Ashanti PLC trades at a P/E of 12.4 (forward 8.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AU?

16 analysts cover AU with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $118.

What does AngloGold Ashanti PLC do?AngloGold Ashanti plc operates as a gold mining company in Africa, Australia, and the Americas. It explores for gold,...

AngloGold Ashanti plc operates as a gold mining company in Africa, Australia, and the Americas. It explores for gold, as well as by-products, including silver and sulphuric acid. The company's flagship property includes 100% owned the Geita mine located in the Lake Victoria goldfields of the Geita region in northwestern Tanzania. AngloGold Ashanti plc was incorporated in 1944 and is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado.

Related stocks: IAG (Iamgold Corporation) · GFI (Gold Fields Limited) · OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) · AEM (Agnico Eagle Mines Limited) · SSRM (SSR Mining Inc.)
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