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AUAngloGold Ashanti PLCBuy Wait6.5·$113.20+4.98%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

AngloGold Ashanti presents a compelling combination of exceptional profitability, wide moat characteristics, and steep growth alongside an attractive forward multiple — but a recent gap-up has compressed near-term asymmetry to below the minimum entry threshold, and three prior quarterly misses create uncertainty about whether earnings delivery has durably improved.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Earnings GrowthStable
  • Thin Asymmetry Blocks New EntryDeteriorating
  • Wide Moat Elite ProfitabilityStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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AngloGold Ashanti PLC (AU) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait for pullback to $102.02. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $113.20. Engine's entry $102.02 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

AngloGold Ashanti plc operates as a gold mining company in Africa, Australia, and the Americas. It explores for gold, as well as by-products, including silver and sulphuric acid. The company's flagship property includes 100% owned the Geita mine located in the Lake Victoria... Read more

$113.20-11.9% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#18 of 42 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield7.25%
IncomeYield4.18%(5y avg 2.22%)Payout61.66%
Entry $102.02(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $91.52Target $120.92(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$113.13-0.1%8 analysts
$120.92our TP
$113.20price
$113.13mean
$76
$134

Wait for pullback to $102.02. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $113.20. Engine's entry $102.02 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.04, quality 9.1/10, growth 9.6/10). Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202662d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=9.1 in RISK_OFF)
Positive news sentiment (+0.92)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.5
P/E (Fwd)10.9
Mkt Cap$54.5B
EV/EBITDA7.8
Profit Mgn32.2%
ROE44.7%
Rev Growth27.0%
Beta0.70
Dividend4.18%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.10bullish
IV66%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.7
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Conservative
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $92.08Resistance $123.39

Price Targets

$92
$102
$121
A.Upside-11.9%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.7%
Max %1.4%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.9% upside)
! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AU stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $102.02. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $113.20. Engine's entry $102.02 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.04, quality 9.1/10, growth 9.6/10). Target $120.92 (+6.8%), stop $91.52 (−23.7%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $120.92 (-11.9% upside). Target $120.92 (+6.8%), stop $91.52 (−23.7%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $91.52.

What are the risks of investing in AU?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is AU overvalued or undervalued?

AngloGold Ashanti PLC trades at a P/E of 14.5 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AU?

16 analysts cover AU with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $113.

What does AngloGold Ashanti PLC do?AngloGold Ashanti plc operates as a gold mining company in Africa, Australia, and the Americas. It explores for gold,...

AngloGold Ashanti plc operates as a gold mining company in Africa, Australia, and the Americas. It explores for gold, as well as by-products, including silver and sulphuric acid. The company's flagship property includes 100% owned the Geita mine located in the Lake Victoria goldfields of the Geita region in northwestern Tanzania. AngloGold Ashanti plc was incorporated in 1944 and is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado.

Related stocks: OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) · KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation) · GFI (Gold Fields Limited) · B (Barrick Mining Corporation) · IAG (Iamgold Corporation)
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