Value
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
AU · Why this verdict
Why AngloGold Ashanti (AU) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AngloGold Ashanti is a high-quality, cheaply valued gold miner (forward P/E 8.6x, ROE 45%) with 23.3% upside to the analyst target, but it has missed earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters and is in an oversold downtrend with results due in 4 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Momentum is weak at 2.5 with RSI 27, falling on-balance volume and price below the 200-day average, though that average is still rising 1.4% over 30 days. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score recovers above 4.5 and price reclaims the 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCapitulation risk and distribution volume suggest further selling could come before a bottom forms. | ||
Business quality is high, with 45% ROE, 32% margins, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 30% and margins above 25% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGold-mining profitability depends on the commodity price, so peak-cycle returns may overstate durable quality. | ||
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 8.6x and a PEG of 0.04, and the engine shows a 43% margin of safety. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 12x while earnings grow. | →Stable |
| CounterLow multiples on miners often reflect peak earnings that investors expect to fall if the gold price retreats. | ||
Upside to the $98.36 analyst target is 23.3% from $79.79, with reward-to-risk of 2.72 versus 8.6% downside. Upside pct | Price moves toward the analyst target as the oversold condition (RSI 27) resolves. | →Stable |
| CounterCoverage is light (8 analysts), and raw upside of 42% was cut by a 13% haircut. | ||
EPS missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including 1.98 versus 2.11 expected in July 2026. Bear case | EPS meets or beats estimates at the next report in 4 days. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOne quarter beat strongly (2.52 versus 2.24), and misses were modest at 2% to 6%, so earnings power may be intact. | ||
Momentum is weak at 2.5 with RSI 27, falling on-balance volume and price below the 200-day average, though that average is still rising 1.4% over 30 days.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 4.5 and price reclaims the 200-day average.
CounterCapitulation risk and distribution volume suggest further selling could come before a bottom forms.
Business quality is high, with 45% ROE, 32% margins, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 30% and margins above 25% over the next 12 months.
CounterGold-mining profitability depends on the commodity price, so peak-cycle returns may overstate durable quality.
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 8.6x and a PEG of 0.04, and the engine shows a 43% margin of safety.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 12x while earnings grow.
CounterLow multiples on miners often reflect peak earnings that investors expect to fall if the gold price retreats.
Upside to the $98.36 analyst target is 23.3% from $79.79, with reward-to-risk of 2.72 versus 8.6% downside.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst target as the oversold condition (RSI 27) resolves.
CounterCoverage is light (8 analysts), and raw upside of 42% was cut by a 13% haircut.
EPS missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including 1.98 versus 2.11 expected in July 2026.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates at the next report in 4 days.
CounterOne quarter beat strongly (2.52 versus 2.24), and misses were modest at 2% to 6%, so earnings power may be intact.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.1 |
| FCF quality | 7.2 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 45%
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
9.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 27% YoY
Momentum
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 39%
Insider
4.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.6 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.7 |
| support resistance | 7.8 |
| 52w position | 3.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.6 |
| days to cover | 9.4 |
| volatility | 2.7 |
| put call | 9.2 |
| implied vol | 2.9 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
- ▸High IV: 63%
Catalyst
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.6 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
- ▸Dividend: 5.5%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33|EARNINGS:BUY_DEFERRED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.6<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.71
Upside
+21.3%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=8.7
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.6<4.5 outcome against Growth at 9.6 and asymmetric R:R of 2.71.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.6, Quality at 9.1, and Value at 8.7; the weakest are Momentum at 1.6, Catalyst at 3.8, and Insider at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.71 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Wide Moat
Trip ifROE falls below 25% from the current 45%.
- P2Deep Value Low Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from the current 8.6x.
- P3Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifUpside to analyst target falls below 10% from the current 23.3%.
- P4Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P5Oversold Pullback Momentum
Trip ifPrice drops below the $75.85 stop level from the current $79.79.