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AUAngloGold Ashanti PLCBuy Wait6.7·$88.84
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

AngloGold Ashanti presents a compelling combination of exceptional profitability, wide moat characteristics, and steep growth alongside an attractive forward multiple — but a recent gap-up has compressed near-term asymmetry to below the minimum entry threshold, and three prior quarterly misses create uncertainty about whether earnings delivery has durably improved.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Earnings Growth→Stable
  • Thin Asymmetry Blocks New Entry→Stable
  • Wide Moat Elite Profitability→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AngloGold Ashanti PLC (AU) Stock Analysis

Sector Rotation edge

Buy WaitValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait for pullback to $85.23. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $88.84. Engine's entry $85.23 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

AngloGold Ashanti plc operates as a gold mining company in Africa, Australia, and the Americas. It explores for gold, as well as by-products, including silver and sulphuric acid. The company's flagship property includes 100% owned the Geita mine located in the Lake Victoria... Read more

$88.84+14.0% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#19 of 44 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield8.80%
IncomeYield4.93%(5y avg 1.71%)Payout61.66%
Entry $85.23(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $79.27Target $101.25(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$116.38+31.0%8 analysts
$101.25our TP
$88.84price
$116.38mean
$76
$139

Wait for pullback to $85.23. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $88.84. Engine's entry $85.23 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Value play: 37% MoS with quality 9.1. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202620d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=9.1 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.9
P/E (Fwd)9.0
Mkt Cap$44.9B
EV/EBITDA6.4
Profit Mgn32.2%
ROE44.7%
Rev Growth27.0%
Beta0.74
Dividend4.93%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C1.21bearish
IV70%elevated
Max Pain$45-49.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 20d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
30 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $87.35Resistance $104.97

Price Targets

$79
$85
$101
A.Upside+14.0%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.9%
Max %3.8%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier -1: STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! momentum at 2.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (20d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AU stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $85.23. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $88.84. Engine's entry $85.23 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Value play: 37% MoS with quality 9.1. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $101.25 (+14.0%), stop $79.27 (−12.1%), A.R:R 2.1:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $101.25 (+14.0% upside). Target $101.25 (+14.0%), stop $79.27 (−12.1%), A.R:R 2.1:1. Stop-loss: $79.27.

What are the risks of investing in AU?

Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Negative momentum.

Is AU overvalued or undervalued?

AngloGold Ashanti PLC trades at a P/E of 11.9 (forward 9.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AU?

16 analysts cover AU with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $116.

What does AngloGold Ashanti PLC do?AngloGold Ashanti plc operates as a gold mining company in Africa, Australia, and the Americas. It explores for gold,...

AngloGold Ashanti plc operates as a gold mining company in Africa, Australia, and the Americas. It explores for gold, as well as by-products, including silver and sulphuric acid. The company's flagship property includes 100% owned the Geita mine located in the Lake Victoria goldfields of the Geita region in northwestern Tanzania. AngloGold Ashanti plc was incorporated in 1944 and is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado.

Related stocks: KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation) · GFI (Gold Fields Limited) · IAG (Iamgold Corporation) · HMY (Harmony Gold Mining Company Lim) · OGC (OceanaGold Corporation)
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