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AUAngloGold Ashanti PLCHold6.7·$98.58
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

AngloGold Ashanti presents a compelling combination of exceptional profitability, wide moat characteristics, and steep growth alongside an attractive forward multiple — but a recent gap-up has compressed near-term asymmetry to below the minimum entry threshold, and three prior quarterly misses create uncertainty about whether earnings delivery has durably improved.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Earnings Growth→Stable
  • Thin Asymmetry Blocks New Entry↑Improving
  • Wide Moat Elite Profitability→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AngloGold Ashanti PLC (AU) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

HoldValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $98.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

AngloGold Ashanti plc operates as a gold mining company in Africa, Australia, and the Americas. It explores for gold, as well as by-products, including silver and sulphuric acid. The company's flagship property includes 100% owned the Geita mine located in the Lake Victoria... Read more

$98.58+3.1% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#17 of 43 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield7.94%
IncomeYield4.58%(5y avg 2.22%)Payout61.66%
Stop $93.62Target $101.68(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$116.88+18.6%8 analysts
$101.68our TP
$98.58price
$116.88mean
$76
$140

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $98.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.04, quality 9.1/10, growth 9.6/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202640d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=9.1 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.1%
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.2
P/E (Fwd)9.8
Mkt Cap$49.8B
EV/EBITDA7.1
Profit Mgn32.2%
ROE44.7%
Rev Growth27.0%
Beta0.75
Dividend4.58%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C1.33bearish
IV51%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
8.0
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 30)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 40d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
30 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $96.52Resistance $119.19

Price Targets

$94
$102
A.Upside+3.1%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier -1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (40d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AU stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $98.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.04, quality 9.1/10, growth 9.6/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $101.68 (+3.1%), stop $93.62 (−5.3%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $101.68 (+3.1% upside). Target $101.68 (+3.1%), stop $93.62 (−5.3%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Stop-loss: $93.62.

What are the risks of investing in AU?

Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is AU overvalued or undervalued?

AngloGold Ashanti PLC trades at a P/E of 13.2 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AU?

16 analysts cover AU with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $117.

What does AngloGold Ashanti PLC do?AngloGold Ashanti plc operates as a gold mining company in Africa, Australia, and the Americas. It explores for gold,...

AngloGold Ashanti plc operates as a gold mining company in Africa, Australia, and the Americas. It explores for gold, as well as by-products, including silver and sulphuric acid. The company's flagship property includes 100% owned the Geita mine located in the Lake Victoria goldfields of the Geita region in northwestern Tanzania. AngloGold Ashanti plc was incorporated in 1944 and is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado.

Related stocks: OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) · KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation) · IAG (Iamgold Corporation) · AGI (Alamos Gold Inc.) · GFI (Gold Fields Limited)
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