Alarm.com has delivered a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, maintains a wide economic moat, and screens attractively on valuation at a forward multiple of 15.3x and PEG of 0.67; the principal limitation is a technical setup still in early recovery — the stock remains below its 200-day moving average — suggesting the risk/reward is favorable but patience on entry timing is warranted.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Beat Streak Wide Moat→Stable
- Attractive Valuation Discount To Growth→Stable
- Rule Of 40 Profitability Gap→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Technology · Software - Application
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $51.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.
Alarm.com operates a cloud-based IoT platform for connected properties across residential, commercial, and multi-family markets, distributing through an independent service provider network. The company generated $1.0112 billion in total revenue in 2025, with SaaS and license... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $51.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Alarm.com adds features to Universal Communicator device - Investing.com UK — Investing.com UK positive
- NEWS Alarm.com Modernizes Legacy Security Systems with Enhanced Universal Communicator - Business Wire — Business Wire positive
- NEWS Alarm.com (ALRM) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS How The Story Is Shifting For Alarm.com (ALRM) As AI And Targets Reset - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM) Shares Gap Down to $43.24 on Apr 9 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
Generated 2026-07-26T09:22:59Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSupplierhardware produced outside the United States10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our hardware is produced outside the United States, including in Vietnam, Thailand and Taiwan'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-18Item 5.02LOWJeff Bedell temporarily relinquished his role as President, Venture Businesses and Corporate Strategy, effective March 12, 2026, due to a personal family issue requiring substantial focus. He remains a full-time employee and senior advisor to the CEO. No permanent successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $51.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $52.20 (+0.8%), stop $48.68 (−6.4%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $52.20 (+0.8% upside). Target $52.20 (+0.8%), stop $48.68 (−6.4%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $48.68.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.0 (forward 17.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
13 analysts cover ALRM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $60.
What does Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. do?Alarm.com operates a cloud-based IoT platform for connected properties across residential, commercial, and multi-family...
Alarm.com operates a cloud-based IoT platform for connected properties across residential, commercial, and multi-family markets, distributing through an independent service provider network. The company generated $1.0112 billion in total revenue in 2025, with SaaS and license revenue of $689.4 million and hardware sales comprising the balance, paid by service providers as monthly fees.