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Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $43.47 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Alarm.com operates a cloud IoT platform for connected residential, commercial, and energy properties, distributing through a network of independent service provider partners. Revenue is predominantly SaaS and license fees ($689.4M of $1.011B total 2025 revenues), with additional... Read more

$43.47+18.1% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#46 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.13%
Stop $40.43Target $51.33(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$59.00+35.7%6 analysts
$51.33our TP
$43.47price
$59.00mean
$85

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $43.47 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Wide economic moat
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.2
P/E (Fwd)14.8
Mkt Cap$2.2B
EV/EBITDA14.2
Profit Mgn12.4%
ROE14.8%
Rev Growth11.0%
Beta0.79
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C57.00bearish
IV54%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-18Item 5.02LOW
    Jeff Bedell temporarily relinquished duties as President, Venture Businesses and Corporate Strategy effective March 12, 2026 due to a personal family issue. He remains a full-time employee serving as senior advisor to the CEO.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
3.5
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $41.49Resistance $48.62

Price Targets

$40
$51
A.Upside+18.1%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALRM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $43.47 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $40.43. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALRM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $51.33 (+18.1% upside). Prior stop was $40.43. Stop-loss: $40.43.

What are the risks of investing in ALRM?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ALRM overvalued or undervalued?

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.2 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALRM?

14 analysts cover ALRM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $59.

What does Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. do?Alarm.com operates a cloud IoT platform for connected residential, commercial, and energy properties, distributing...

Alarm.com operates a cloud IoT platform for connected residential, commercial, and energy properties, distributing through a network of independent service provider partners. Revenue is predominantly SaaS and license fees ($689.4M of $1.011B total 2025 revenues), with additional hardware sales to service providers.

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