Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the ALRM stock price target?

Take-profit $50.46 (+14.5% upside). Prior stop was $41.30.

Q: Is ALRM overvalued or undervalued?

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.1 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about ALRM?

13 analysts cover ALRM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $58.

Recovery setup

SellModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $44.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Alarm.com operates a cloud-based IoT platform for connected properties including security, video, energy management, and access control for residential, multifamily, and commercial markets through a network of service provider partners. With 170 million connected devices, the... Read more

$44.05+14.5% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#60 of 96 Software - Application

Stop $41.30Target $50.46(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.3:1

Analyst target$58.00+31.7%6 analysts

$50.46our TP

$44.05price

$58.00mean

$85

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)

Risks

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5

Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.1

P/E (Fwd)14.8

Mkt Cap$2.2B

EV/EBITDA14.9

Profit Mgn13.1%

ROE15.8%

Rev Growth8.0%

Beta0.83

DividendNone

Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.29bullish

IV53%elevated

Max Pain$38-14.9% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-18Item 5.02LOW
Jeff Bedell temporarily relinquished duties as President, Venture Businesses and Corporate Strategy effective March 12, 2026, due to a personal family issue. Will continue as full-time employee and senior advisor to the CEO. No reason beyond personal family issue cited.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.915%1.03

Quality5.715%0.85

Growth5.015%0.75

Momentum4.310%0.43

Sentiment6.810%0.68

Insider Activity3.910%0.39

Peer Rank4.010%0.40

Technical Setup5.75%0.29

Risk Profile5.85%0.29

Catalyst7.55%0.38

Overall (Σ contributions)5.49

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

57 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $41.92Resistance $47.16

Price Targets

$41

$50

A.Upside+14.6%

A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ALRM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $44.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Prior stop was $41.30. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALRM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.46 (+14.5% upside). Prior stop was $41.30. Stop-loss: $41.30.

What are the risks of investing in ALRM?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ALRM overvalued or undervalued?

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.1 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALRM?

13 analysts cover ALRM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $58.

What does Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. do?Alarm.com operates a cloud-based IoT platform for connected properties including security, video, energy management,...