Alarm.com has delivered a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, maintains a wide economic moat, and screens attractively on valuation at a forward multiple of 15.3x and PEG of 0.67; the principal limitation is a technical setup still in early recovery — the stock remains below its 200-day moving average — suggesting the risk/reward is favorable but patience on entry timing is warranted.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Beat Streak Wide Moat→Stable
- Attractive Valuation Discount To Growth↓Deteriorating
- Rule Of 40 Profitability Gap→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $56.68 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.5% away).
Alarm.com operates a cloud-based IoT platform for connected properties across residential, commercial, and multi-family markets, distributing through an independent service provider network. The company generated $1.0112 billion in total revenue in 2025, with SaaS and license... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $56.68 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.5% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership Grows Position in Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. $ALRM - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Alarm.com adds features to Universal Communicator device - Investing.com UK — Investing.com UK positive
- NEWS Alarm.com Modernizes Legacy Security Systems with Enhanced Universal Communicator - Business Wire — Business Wire positive
- NEWS Alarm.com (ALRM) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Alarm.com Holdings Inc - Google — Google neutral
Generated 2026-10-15T11:37:20Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSupplierhardware produced outside the United States10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our hardware is produced outside the United States, including in Vietnam, Thailand and Taiwan'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-18Item 5.02LOWJeff Bedell temporarily relinquished his role as President, Venture Businesses and Corporate Strategy, effective March 12, 2026, due to a personal family issue requiring substantial focus. He remains a full-time employee and senior advisor to the CEO. No permanent successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $56.68 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.5% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $54.28. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $65.18 (-3.3% upside). Prior stop was $54.28. Stop-loss: $54.28.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.5% away); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.1 (forward 18.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover ALRM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $63.
What does Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. do?Alarm.com operates a cloud-based IoT platform for connected properties across residential, commercial, and multi-family...
Alarm.com operates a cloud-based IoT platform for connected properties across residential, commercial, and multi-family markets, distributing through an independent service provider network. The company generated $1.0112 billion in total revenue in 2025, with SaaS and license revenue of $689.4 million and hardware sales comprising the balance, paid by service providers as monthly fees.