Alnylam combines an unusually strong quality profile — wide economic moat, Rule of 40 score of 101, 96% year-over-year revenue growth, and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 — with a forward earnings multiple that remains undemanding for growth of this caliber at a PEG of 0.49; the principal near-term obstacle is a confirmed technical downtrend that, until resolved, limits the initial position size for all but the most patient investors.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 96% year-over-year, the combined growth-and-profitability Rule of 40 score is 101, the business carries a wide economic moat, and the financial health screen scores 8 of 9 — yet the forward earnings multiple sits at a PEG of 0.49, an unusually low price to pay for a franchise with these characteristics. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth sustains above 50% year-over-year and the Rule of 40 remains above 80 over the next 12 months, validating the quality-growth combination at current prices. | →Stable |
| CounterBiotechs with triple-digit revenue growth rates almost always face deceleration as the base effect compounds; the current valuation implicitly assumes prolonged exceptional growth, and any meaningful slowdown would compress the multiple sharply. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the trend slope declining at 4.1% over 30 days, on-balance volume is falling, and a death cross has triggered — conditions that have historically been poor entry points even for high-quality businesses until the technical backdrop stabilizes. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive, signaling that the supply overhang has cleared. | →Stable |
| CounterTechnical price action in high-quality businesses with strong fundamental momentum can diverge from fundamentals for extended periods before mean-reverting sharply; a patient investor who waits for technical confirmation may miss the bulk of the initial recovery move. | ||
The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.8, which at current growth rates is manageable but leaves less financial cushion if revenue momentum softens — elevated leverage can accelerate downside scenarios in a way that unlevered peers would not experience. Bear case | Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 2.0 over the next four quarters as cash generation from commercial products pays down obligations. | →Stable |
| CounterA high-growth business with a wide economic moat and strong free-cash-flow trajectory can comfortably service elevated debt; leverage used to fund product expansion may be value-accretive if the underlying assets continue to generate returns above the cost of capital. | ||
Revenue grew 96% year-over-year, the combined growth-and-profitability Rule of 40 score is 101, the business carries a wide economic moat, and the financial health screen scores 8 of 9 — yet the forward earnings multiple sits at a PEG of 0.49, an unusually low price to pay for a franchise with these characteristics.
→Stable- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 50% year-over-year and the Rule of 40 remains above 80 over the next 12 months, validating the quality-growth combination at current prices.
CounterBiotechs with triple-digit revenue growth rates almost always face deceleration as the base effect compounds; the current valuation implicitly assumes prolonged exceptional growth, and any meaningful slowdown would compress the multiple sharply.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the trend slope declining at 4.1% over 30 days, on-balance volume is falling, and a death cross has triggered — conditions that have historically been poor entry points even for high-quality businesses until the technical backdrop stabilizes.
→Stable- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive, signaling that the supply overhang has cleared.
CounterTechnical price action in high-quality businesses with strong fundamental momentum can diverge from fundamentals for extended periods before mean-reverting sharply; a patient investor who waits for technical confirmation may miss the bulk of the initial recovery move.
The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.8, which at current growth rates is manageable but leaves less financial cushion if revenue momentum softens — elevated leverage can accelerate downside scenarios in a way that unlevered peers would not experience.
→Stable- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 2.0 over the next four quarters as cash generation from commercial products pays down obligations.
CounterA high-growth business with a wide economic moat and strong free-cash-flow trajectory can comfortably service elevated debt; leverage used to fund product expansion may be value-accretive if the underlying assets continue to generate returns above the cost of capital.
▸ Show 1 more pillar▾ Show fewer
Three of the last four quarters produced positive earnings surprises, with the three beats averaging a 74% upside to estimates; the single miss occurred in the second-most-recent quarter, and the most recent quarter returned to a 35% beat, suggesting the underlying earnings trajectory remains constructive.
→Stable- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to four consecutive quarters without interruption over the next 12 months.
CounterThe average surprise figure is significantly inflated by a 120% beat in the oldest quarter of the window, which may reflect a one-time estimate reset rather than durable guidance discipline; if consensus estimates are now better calibrated, future surprises could narrow materially.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Conditional: death cross active, analysts disagree (1.8× target spread) — below strong-conviction threshold. Size accordingly.
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Buy now at $293.00. A.R:R 4.7:1 at $293.00 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $392.69 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$100 per share to target. Chart is structurally weak: below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). BUY_NOW holds because Quality 8.1 (≥ 7.5) and Momentum 6.4 (≥ 5.0) clear the death-cross exemption, with A.R:R 4.7:1 vs. the 1.5:1 minimum providing the reward cushion. Suitability: moderate — not a conservative entry. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals develops and commercializes RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics; its six approved products include AMVUTTRA, ONPATTRO, GIVLAARI, and OXLUMO (sold directly) plus Leqvio and Qfitlia (commercialized by Novartis and Sanofi). The company recognized $2.99... Read more
Buy now at $293.00. A.R:R 4.7:1 at $293.00 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $392.69 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$100 per share to target. Chart is structurally weak: below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). BUY_NOW holds because Quality 8.1 (≥ 7.5) and Momentum 6.4 (≥ 5.0) clear the death-cross exemption, with A.R:R 4.7:1 vs. the 1.5:1 minimum providing the reward cushion. Suitability: moderate — not a conservative entry. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.49, quality 8.1/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 9/11 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=healthcare 3/10). Suitability: moderate.
About Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
About Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals generated $2.99 billion in net product revenues in 2025 from four directly commercialized RNAi medicines — AMVUTTRA, ONPATTRO, GIVLAARI, and OXLUMO — marking the company's first profitable fiscal year. AMVUTTRA received FDA approval for ATTR cardiomyopathy in March 2025, expanding its U.S. indication, with European Commission approval following in June 2025. Two additional products, Leqvio and Qfitlia, are commercialized by Novartis and Sanofi in markets now covering 108 countries for Leqvio.
Alnylam earns revenue from direct product sales through specialty distribution channels plus royalties and collaboration payments from Novartis (Leqvio), Sanofi (Qfitlia), Roche (zilebesiran), and Regeneron (cemdisiran). AMVUTTRA targets transthyretin protein synthesis via quarterly subcutaneous injection; coverage policies from Medicare, Medicaid, and private payors govern net realized pricing. The company relies on third-party contract manufacturers for commercial supply. The clinical pipeline adds potential upside: nucresiran entered Phase 3 trials TRITON-PN and TRITON-CM in 2025; zilebesiran entered the ZENITH Phase 3 cardiovascular outcomes trial in September 2025 alongside Roche; mivelsiran reported Phase 1 data in early-onset Alzheimer's disease in July 2025. Regeneron plans a U.S. regulatory submission for cemdisiran in generalized myasthenia gravis in the first quarter of 2026.
Show full overview
Pricing pressure from the Inflation Reduction Act could weigh on future AMVUTTRA revenues as the U.S. government expands its list of drugs subject to Medicare price negotiation. The 10-K explicitly identifies 'most-favored nation pricing measures, measures requiring the U.S. government in the future to negotiate the prices of certain drugs' as risks affecting AMVUTTRA commercialization. ATTR cardiomyopathy is a prevalent adult condition with a large Medicare patient population, and Alnylam's stated dependence on AMVUTTRA as a 'significant portion' of net product revenues places a defined ceiling risk on the TTR franchise's long-term net pricing.
See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology
From Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-25Recent Developments — Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Alnylam (ALNY) Q1 earnings preview: What you should know beyond the headline estimates - MSN — MSN neutral
- NEWS Alnylam (ALNY) Q1 Earnings Preview: What You Should Know Beyond the Headline Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS ALNY Earnings Preview: Alnylam Q1 2026 on April 30 - Meyka — Meyka neutral
- NEWS Alnylam Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Pay Practices and Auditor - TipRanks — TipRanks neutral
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Alnylam Pharmaceuticals(ALNY.US) With Buy Rating, Maintains Target Price $445 - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
Generated 2026-06-25T01:43:47Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductAMVUTTRA10-K Item 1A: 'a significant portion of our net product revenues was derived from the sale of our TTR products, and in particular AMVUTTRA'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-27Item 5.02LOWBenjamin F. Cravatt, Ph.D. elected to the Board as Class III director effective June 1, 2026, filling a newly created vacancy; term expires at 2028 annual meeting. Annual cash retainer $75,000 plus stock options. Routine board expansion; no officer departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Buy now at $293.00. A.R:R 4.7:1 at $293.00 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $392.69 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$100 per share to target. Chart is structurally weak: below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). BUY_NOW holds because Quality 8.1 (≥ 7.5) and Momentum 6.4 (≥ 5.0) clear the death-cross exemption, with A.R:R 4.7:1 vs. the 1.5:1 minimum providing the reward cushion. Suitability: moderate — not a conservative entry. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.49, quality 8.1/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $392.69 (+34.0%), stop $273.48 (−7.1%), A.R:R 4.7:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $392.69 (+33.5% upside). Target $392.69 (+34.0%), stop $273.48 (−7.1%), A.R:R 4.7:1. Stop-loss: $273.48.
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of 72.4 (forward 20.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Strong Buy.
37 analysts cover ALNY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $436.
What does Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Alnylam Pharmaceuticals develops and commercializes RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics; its six approved products...
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals develops and commercializes RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics; its six approved products include AMVUTTRA, ONPATTRO, GIVLAARI, and OXLUMO (sold directly) plus Leqvio and Qfitlia (commercialized by Novartis and Sanofi). The company recognized $2.99 billion in net product revenues in 2025, its first profitable fiscal year, with AMVUTTRA as the dominant revenue driver following its FDA approval for ATTR cardiomyopathy in March 2025.