Alnylam is a high-margin biotech with a wide moat and 72% upside to the analyst target, but it is in a steep downtrend, 67% off its high, and cash conversion is weak.
Thesis pillars
- High Margin Moat Business↓Deteriorating
- Deep Analyst Upside↑Improving
- Reasonable Forward Valuation↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $161.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals develops and commercializes RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics; its six approved products include AMVUTTRA, ONPATTRO, GIVLAARI, and OXLUMO (sold directly) plus Leqvio and Qfitlia (commercialized by Novartis and Sanofi). The company recognized $2.99... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $161.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 15, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 98d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
About Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals generated $2.99 billion in net product revenues in 2025 from four directly commercialized RNAi medicines — AMVUTTRA, ONPATTRO, GIVLAARI, and OXLUMO — marking the company's first profitable fiscal year. AMVUTTRA received FDA approval for ATTR cardiomyopathy in March 2025, expanding its U.S. indication, with European Commission approval following in June 2025. Two additional products, Leqvio and Qfitlia, are commercialized by Novartis and Sanofi in markets now covering 108 countries for Leqvio.
Alnylam earns revenue from direct product sales through specialty distribution channels plus royalties and collaboration payments from Novartis (Leqvio), Sanofi (Qfitlia), Roche (zilebesiran), and Regeneron (cemdisiran). AMVUTTRA targets transthyretin protein synthesis via quarterly subcutaneous injection; coverage policies from Medicare, Medicaid, and private payors govern net realized pricing. The company relies on third-party contract manufacturers for commercial supply. The clinical pipeline adds potential upside: nucresiran entered Phase 3 trials TRITON-PN and TRITON-CM in 2025; zilebesiran entered the ZENITH Phase 3 cardiovascular outcomes trial in September 2025 alongside Roche; mivelsiran reported Phase 1 data in early-onset Alzheimer's disease in July 2025. Regeneron plans a U.S. regulatory submission for cemdisiran in generalized myasthenia gravis in the first quarter of 2026.
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Pricing pressure from the Inflation Reduction Act could weigh on future AMVUTTRA revenues as the U.S. government expands its list of drugs subject to Medicare price negotiation. The 10-K explicitly identifies 'most-favored nation pricing measures, measures requiring the U.S. government in the future to negotiate the prices of certain drugs' as risks affecting AMVUTTRA commercialization. ATTR cardiomyopathy is a prevalent adult condition with a large Medicare patient population, and Alnylam's stated dependence on AMVUTTRA as a 'significant portion' of net product revenues places a defined ceiling risk on the TTR franchise's long-term net pricing.
See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology
From Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 31, 2026Recent Developments — Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Alnylam (ALNY) Stock Drops As Q3 Earnings Clash With Sales Concerns - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 31, 2026 negative
- NEWS ALNY Stock Hits Fresh 52-Week Low On Medicare Access Worries And Pipeline Delays - TradingView — TradingView Oct 29, 2026 negative
- NEWS ALNY Stock Hits Fresh 52-Week Low On Medicare Access Worries And Pipeline Delays - Stocktwits — Stocktwits Oct 29, 2026 negative
- NEWS Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) Reports Q3 Results with Pipeline Delays and Maintains Hold Rating - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 29, 2026 negative
- NEWS IONS, AZN Stocks Fall On Full Data From Failed Cardiomyopathy Trial — Jefferies Sees Neutral To Negative Readthrough To — Stocktwits Oct 28, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 31, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:06Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductAMVUTTRA10-K Item 1A: 'a significant portion of our net product revenues was derived from the sale of our TTR products, and in particular AMVUTTRA'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-27Item 5.02LOWBenjamin F. Cravatt, Ph.D. elected to the Board as Class III director effective June 1, 2026, filling a newly created vacancy; term expires at 2028 annual meeting. Annual cash retainer $75,000 plus stock options. Routine board expansion; no officer departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $161.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 15, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $151.32. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $272.23 (+69.0% upside). Prior stop was $151.32. Stop-loss: $151.32.
Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.1 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
38 analysts rate ALNY, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 27 analysts publish price targets averaging $302.
What does Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Alnylam Pharmaceuticals develops and commercializes RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics; its six approved products...
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals develops and commercializes RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics; its six approved products include AMVUTTRA, ONPATTRO, GIVLAARI, and OXLUMO (sold directly) plus Leqvio and Qfitlia (commercialized by Novartis and Sanofi). The company recognized $2.99 billion in net product revenues in 2025, its first profitable fiscal year, with AMVUTTRA as the dominant revenue driver following its FDA approval for ATTR cardiomyopathy in March 2025.