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Incyte Corporation (INCY) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Wait for pullback to $90.06. At $96.53 the A.R:R is 0.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $90.06 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: JAKAFI; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Incyte is a global biopharmaceutical company with approved products in Hematology (JAKAFI, ICLUSIG, MONJUVI/MINJUVI, NIKTIMVO), Oncology (PEMAZYRE, ZYNYZ), and Inflammation & Autoimmunity (OPZELURA), headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware with operations in Europe, Japan, and... Read more

$96.53+8.4% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#2 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.93%
Entry $90.06(R/R-minimum solve)Stop $85.00Target $97.65(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.2:1Setup A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$108.50+12.4%22 analysts
$97.65our TP
$96.53price
$108.50mean
$71
$135

Wait for pullback to $90.06. At $96.53 the A.R:R is 0.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $90.06 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: JAKAFI; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.36, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.8/10). Score 6.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Incyte Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.5 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: JAKAFI
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.5
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$19.1B
EV/EBITDA9.8
Profit Mgn26.7%
ROE30.8%
Rev Growth20.9%
Beta0.80
DividendNone
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.14bullish
IV46%normal
Max Pain$155+60.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductJAKAFI
    10-K Item 1A: 'We depend heavily on JAKAFI/JAKAVI (ruxolitinib), and if we are not able to maintain revenues from JAKAFI/JAKAVI or those revenues decrease, our business may be materially harmed'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-30Item 5.02LOW
    Susanne Schaffert, a board director since 2022, notified Incyte of her resignation effective April 15, 2026. Resignation not the result of any disagreement with the Company. No successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-26Item 5.02LOW
    Incyte announced title changes: Pablo Cagnoni becomes President; Steven Stein becomes EVP/CMO; Mohamed Issa becomes EVP/Head of US Commercial. William Meury remains CEO. No compensation changes in connection with title changes.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $92.79Resistance $103.01

Price Targets

$85
$90
$98
A.Upside+1.2%
A.R:R0.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.9%
Max %1.8%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.9% upside)
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is INCY stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $90.06. At $96.53 the A.R:R is 0.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $90.06 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: JAKAFI; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.36, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.8/10). Target $97.65 (+1.2%), stop $85.00 (−13.6%), Setup A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 6.8/10, high confidence.

What is the INCY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $97.65 (+8.4% upside). Target $97.65 (+1.2%), stop $85.00 (−13.6%), Setup A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $85.00.

What are the risks of investing in INCY?

Concentration risk — Product: JAKAFI; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is INCY overvalued or undervalued?

Incyte Corporation trades at a P/E of 13.5 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about INCY?

33 analysts cover INCY with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $109.

What does Incyte Corporation do?Incyte is a global biopharmaceutical company with approved products in Hematology (JAKAFI, ICLUSIG, MONJUVI/MINJUVI,...

Incyte is a global biopharmaceutical company with approved products in Hematology (JAKAFI, ICLUSIG, MONJUVI/MINJUVI, NIKTIMVO), Oncology (PEMAZYRE, ZYNYZ), and Inflammation & Autoimmunity (OPZELURA), headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware with operations in Europe, Japan, and Canada. Revenue is heavily dependent on JAKAFI (ruxolitinib) royalties and US sales. A small number of specialty pharmacies and wholesalers represent a significant portion of JAKAFI revenues.

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