Value
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.4 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.22
- ▸Attractively valued
ALNY · Why this verdict
Why Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroCAUTIOUS
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Alnylam is a high-margin biotech with a wide moat and 72% upside to the analyst target, but it is in a steep downtrend, 67% off its high, and cash conversion is weak.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Return on equity of 138%, margins of 53% and a wide economic moat mark Alnylam as a high-quality biotech. Quality breakdown | Margins stay above 40% over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is only 12% of net income, so reported profits are not yet backed by cash. | ||
The analyst target of $283.33 is about 71.7% above the $165.00 price with a reward-to-risk of 4.9. Targets | Price recovers toward the target as selling exhausts. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is 67% below its high and targets may be stale after the selloff. | ||
Forward P/E of 14.5x and a PEG of 0.21 are attractive against growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 20x as earnings grow. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimates for growth biotechs can drop quickly if launches slow. | ||
Price is below the 200-day average with a slope of -8.6% per 30 days, RSI of 21 and a volume surge of 3.2x on the selloff. Momentum breakdown | Price stabilizes above the recent low and RSI recovers above 40. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA volume surge on a selloff signals distribution that may continue. | ||
Free cash flow is only 12% of net income and the Rule of 40 score is 23, below the pass mark of 40. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income rises above 50%. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy spending on launches may keep cash flow weak. | ||
Return on equity of 138%, margins of 53% and a wide economic moat mark Alnylam as a high-quality biotech.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay above 40% over 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow is only 12% of net income, so reported profits are not yet backed by cash.
The analyst target of $283.33 is about 71.7% above the $165.00 price with a reward-to-risk of 4.9.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price recovers toward the target as selling exhausts.
CounterThe stock is 67% below its high and targets may be stale after the selloff.
Forward P/E of 14.5x and a PEG of 0.21 are attractive against growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 20x as earnings grow.
CounterEstimates for growth biotechs can drop quickly if launches slow.
Price is below the 200-day average with a slope of -8.6% per 30 days, RSI of 21 and a volume surge of 3.2x on the selloff.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stabilizes above the recent low and RSI recovers above 40.
CounterA volume surge on a selloff signals distribution that may continue.
Free cash flow is only 12% of net income and the Rule of 40 score is 23, below the pass mark of 40.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income rises above 50%.
CounterHeavy spending on launches may keep cash flow weak.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.3 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 7.8 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.4 |
| FCF quality | 1.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 138%
- ▸Strong margins: 53%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 12% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
6.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.7 |
Momentum
1.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.2 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 22, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.1 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 82%
Insider
4.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $398,855 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 9.6 |
| growth rank | 5.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.7 |
| support resistance | 8.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.4 |
| implied vol | 2.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.0 |
| news risk | 3.0 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
- ▸Above max pain $110
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Critical news event: fraud..
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCKPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:4.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:90d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- NEWS_SOFT:LEADERSHIP_CHANGE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
4.27
Upside
+64.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -67% (>40% off 52w high), Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Critical news event: fraud.. The 10-dimension scores remain Value at 7.7 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:1.0<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Quality at 7.2, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 1.0, Insider at 4.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Margin Moat Business
Trip ifNet margin falls below 30% from current 53%.
- P2Deep Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst upside to target falls below 20% from current 71.7%.
- P3Reasonable Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 25x.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice falls more than 25% below the current $165.00.
- P5Weak Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income stays below 10% for 2 more quarters.