Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.3 |
| P/S | 6.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.32
ALNY · Why this verdict
Why Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Alnylam combines an unusually strong quality profile — wide economic moat, Rule of 40 score of 101, 96% year-over-year revenue growth, and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 — with a forward earnings multiple that remains undemanding for growth of this caliber at a PEG of 0.49; the principal near-term obstacle is a confirmed technical downtrend that, until resolved, limits the initial position size for all but the most patient investors.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 96% year-over-year, the combined growth-and-profitability Rule of 40 score is 101, the business carries a wide economic moat, and the financial health screen scores 8 of 9 — yet the forward earnings multiple sits at a PEG of 0.49, an unusually low price to pay for a franchise with these characteristics. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth sustains above 50% year-over-year and the Rule of 40 remains above 80 over the next 12 months, validating the quality-growth combination at current prices. | →Stable |
| CounterBiotechs with triple-digit revenue growth rates almost always face deceleration as the base effect compounds; the current valuation implicitly assumes prolonged exceptional growth, and any meaningful slowdown would compress the multiple sharply. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the trend slope declining at 4.1% over 30 days, on-balance volume is falling, and a death cross has triggered — conditions that have historically been poor entry points even for high-quality businesses until the technical backdrop stabilizes. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive, signaling that the supply overhang has cleared. | →Stable |
| CounterTechnical price action in high-quality businesses with strong fundamental momentum can diverge from fundamentals for extended periods before mean-reverting sharply; a patient investor who waits for technical confirmation may miss the bulk of the initial recovery move. | ||
The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.8, which at current growth rates is manageable but leaves less financial cushion if revenue momentum softens — elevated leverage can accelerate downside scenarios in a way that unlevered peers would not experience. Bear case | Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 2.0 over the next four quarters as cash generation from commercial products pays down obligations. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA high-growth business with a wide economic moat and strong free-cash-flow trajectory can comfortably service elevated debt; leverage used to fund product expansion may be value-accretive if the underlying assets continue to generate returns above the cost of capital. | ||
Three of the last four quarters produced positive earnings surprises, with the three beats averaging a 74% upside to estimates; the single miss occurred in the second-most-recent quarter, and the most recent quarter returned to a 35% beat, suggesting the underlying earnings trajectory remains constructive. Earnings | The earnings beat streak extends to four consecutive quarters without interruption over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe average surprise figure is significantly inflated by a 120% beat in the oldest quarter of the window, which may reflect a one-time estimate reset rather than durable guidance discipline; if consensus estimates are now better calibrated, future surprises could narrow materially. | ||
Revenue grew 96% year-over-year, the combined growth-and-profitability Rule of 40 score is 101, the business carries a wide economic moat, and the financial health screen scores 8 of 9 — yet the forward earnings multiple sits at a PEG of 0.49, an unusually low price to pay for a franchise with these characteristics.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 50% year-over-year and the Rule of 40 remains above 80 over the next 12 months, validating the quality-growth combination at current prices.
CounterBiotechs with triple-digit revenue growth rates almost always face deceleration as the base effect compounds; the current valuation implicitly assumes prolonged exceptional growth, and any meaningful slowdown would compress the multiple sharply.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the trend slope declining at 4.1% over 30 days, on-balance volume is falling, and a death cross has triggered — conditions that have historically been poor entry points even for high-quality businesses until the technical backdrop stabilizes.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive, signaling that the supply overhang has cleared.
CounterTechnical price action in high-quality businesses with strong fundamental momentum can diverge from fundamentals for extended periods before mean-reverting sharply; a patient investor who waits for technical confirmation may miss the bulk of the initial recovery move.
The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.8, which at current growth rates is manageable but leaves less financial cushion if revenue momentum softens — elevated leverage can accelerate downside scenarios in a way that unlevered peers would not experience.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 2.0 over the next four quarters as cash generation from commercial products pays down obligations.
CounterA high-growth business with a wide economic moat and strong free-cash-flow trajectory can comfortably service elevated debt; leverage used to fund product expansion may be value-accretive if the underlying assets continue to generate returns above the cost of capital.
Three of the last four quarters produced positive earnings surprises, with the three beats averaging a 74% upside to estimates; the single miss occurred in the second-most-recent quarter, and the most recent quarter returned to a 35% beat, suggesting the underlying earnings trajectory remains constructive.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to four consecutive quarters without interruption over the next 12 months.
CounterThe average surprise figure is significantly inflated by a 120% beat in the oldest quarter of the window, which may reflect a one-time estimate reset rather than durable guidance discipline; if consensus estimates are now better calibrated, future surprises could narrow materially.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 8.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 7.2 |
| Net margin | 8.1 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 2.8 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 97%
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 35% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 67% YoY
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.70 (n=2)
- ▸Analyst upside: 64%
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $398,855 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 3.7 |
| put call | 7.2 |
| implied vol | 1.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 2.8 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 70%
- ▸Above max pain $150
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.32, quality 8.2/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -2 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (4)
- ASYMMETRY:6.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
6.76
Upside
+47.7%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.2) with weak momentum (3.5)
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -55% (>40% off 52w high), Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict: quality 8.2 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 6.76 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 8.5, and Quality at 8.2; the weakest are Momentum at 3.5, Technical at 4.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.76 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Elite Growth Quality
Trip ifRevenue growth decelerates below 30% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Confirmed Downtrend Blocks Entry
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive for 20 or more consecutive sessions.
- P3Leverage Adds Downside Cushion Risk
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 1.5 within 4 consecutive quarters.
- P4Earnings Large Consistent Surprises
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in 2 of the next 3 reported quarters.