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AIIAmerican Integrity Insurance GrBuy Wait6.6·$26.00-0.61%
Buy WaitHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

American Integrity Insurance screens as a high-quality, fast-growing compounder with a strong earnings-beat streak and an attractive multiple, but the shares have already reached the analyst price target and short-term technicals show overbought, late-cycle conditions. The setup argues for waiting for a better entry rather than chasing strength.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Compounder FundamentalsStable
  • Cheap Multiple Versus Target ReachedStable
  • Four Quarter Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

American Integrity Insurance Gr (AII) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Wait for pullback to $21.35. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $26.00. Engine's entry $21.35 (Rr Min Solve Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.7% away).

American Integrity Insurance Group underwrites personal residential property insurance for homeowners and condominium owners in Florida through its subsidiary American Integrity Insurance Company, with Florida representing 96.5% of in-force premium and 93.7% of policies in-force... Read more

$26.00-11.7% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#8 of 40 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield54.36%
Entry $21.35(Rr Min Solve Sticky)Stop $19.68Target $26.46(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$27.00+3.8%4 analysts
$26.46our TP
$26.00price
$27.00mean
$29

Wait for pullback to $21.35. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $26.00. Engine's entry $21.35 (Rr Min Solve Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-11.7% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About American Integrity Insurance Gr

About American Integrity Insurance Gr

American Integrity Insurance Group wrote $944.6 million in gross premiums across 421,866 Florida residential property policies in 2025, with Florida accounting for 96.5% of in-force premium and 93.7% of policies in-force. Its admitted-carrier book split 77.5% Voluntary Market originations and 22.5% policies assumed from state-run Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, regulated primarily by Florida's FLOIR as it recently began extending underwriting into Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

American Integrity earns revenue from residential property insurance premiums, retaining $270.9 million of net premiums written against $944.6 million in gross premiums for 2025 — a gap that reflects the substantial reinsurance the company cedes through excess-of-loss, quota-share, per-risk, and facultative treaties placed with third-party reinsurers rated A- or better by A.M. Best. Independent insurance agents are the company's largest distribution channel by premium volume, supplemented by referral partnerships with national carriers including Allstate, American Family, Farmers, Liberty Mutual, The Hartford, Progressive, and USAA that restrict their own Florida homeowners writings, plus homebuilder-affiliated agents serving Florida's new-construction market. The company invests its float in short-duration, investment-grade fixed income securities managed by Goldman Sachs Asset Management, and it opportunistically assumes policies from Citizens when they meet its underwriting and profitability criteria.

Show full overview

Beyond its statewide Florida concentration, American Integrity's book is further layered across counties — Polk, Lee, and Orange each represent about 7% of Florida policies-in-force — but the 10-K warns that a catastrophic event concentrated in counties where the company writes a large volume of policies could significantly affect results. The company has cut concentrated exposure before: after identifying a 2018 'roof crisis' of fraudulent roofing damage claims in Central Florida, it shrank policies-in-force there from about 60,000 at year-end 2019 to about 35,000 by year-end 2022, illustrating both its exposure to localized claims trends and its willingness to non-renew policies to limit losses.

See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

From American Integrity Insurance Gr's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 10, 202665d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.7% away)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.1
P/E (Fwd)8.0
Mkt Cap$509M
EV/EBITDA2.0
Profit Mgn26.2%
ROE26.2%
Rev Growth54.6%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.3
Macd
1.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEINSIDER 1.72%=EXTREMENo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.12Resistance $27.00

Price Targets

$20
$21
$26
A.Upside-11.7%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1%
Max %2%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.7% upside)
! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-10 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AII stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $21.35. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $26.00. Engine's entry $21.35 (Rr Min Solve Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-11.7% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $26.46 (+1.8%), stop $19.68 (−32.1%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.

What is the AII stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.46 (-11.7% upside). Target $26.46 (+1.8%), stop $19.68 (−32.1%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $19.68.

What are the risks of investing in AII?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.7% away); Negative momentum.

Is AII overvalued or undervalued?

American Integrity Insurance Gr trades at a P/E of 6.1 (forward 8.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AII?

10 analysts cover AII with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $27.

What does American Integrity Insurance Gr do?American Integrity Insurance Group underwrites personal residential property insurance for homeowners and condominium...

American Integrity Insurance Group underwrites personal residential property insurance for homeowners and condominium owners in Florida through its subsidiary American Integrity Insurance Company, with Florida representing 96.5% of in-force premium and 93.7% of policies in-force as of December 31, 2025. The company wrote $944.6 million in gross premiums across 421,866 policies for the year, generating net premiums written of $270.9 million and net income of $99.6 million, and has begun expanding into South Carolina, Georgia, and North Carolina.

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