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AIIAmerican Integrity Insurance GrHold6.8·$29.13
HoldHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

American Integrity is a high-return property insurer with a 4-for-4 earnings beat streak and 55% YoY growth, but the stock trades above the analyst target and insiders are selling heavily.

Thesis pillars

  • Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
  • High Return Quality Franchise→Stable
  • Rapid Revenue Growth→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

American Integrity Insurance Gr (AII) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

Hold(was: Buy (Wait for Entry))VALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Earnings in 5 days (2026-11-10). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $29.13, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.9% away).

American Integrity Insurance Group underwrites personal residential property insurance for homeowners and condominium owners in Florida through its subsidiary American Integrity Insurance Company, with Florida representing 96.5% of in-force premium and 93.7% of policies in-force... Read more

$29.13-17.6% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#4 of 41 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield48.51%
Entry $28.26(1 ATR pullback)Stop $26.52Analyst target $24.01(reached)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst consensus$28.25-3.0%4 analysts with price targets
$29.13price
$28.25mean
$26
$31

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $29.13, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.9% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $29.13 vs the analyst target $24.01: -17.6% upside; No upside left. Score 6.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About American Integrity Insurance Gr

About American Integrity Insurance Gr

American Integrity Insurance Group wrote $944.6 million in gross premiums across 421,866 Florida residential property policies in 2025, with Florida accounting for 96.5% of in-force premium and 93.7% of policies in-force. Its admitted-carrier book split 77.5% Voluntary Market originations and 22.5% policies assumed from state-run Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, regulated primarily by Florida's FLOIR as it recently began extending underwriting into Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

American Integrity earns revenue from residential property insurance premiums, retaining $270.9 million of net premiums written against $944.6 million in gross premiums for 2025 — a gap that reflects the substantial reinsurance the company cedes through excess-of-loss, quota-share, per-risk, and facultative treaties placed with third-party reinsurers rated A- or better by A.M. Best. Independent insurance agents are the company's largest distribution channel by premium volume, supplemented by referral partnerships with national carriers including Allstate, American Family, Farmers, Liberty Mutual, The Hartford, Progressive, and USAA that restrict their own Florida homeowners writings, plus homebuilder-affiliated agents serving Florida's new-construction market. The company invests its float in short-duration, investment-grade fixed income securities managed by Goldman Sachs Asset Management, and it opportunistically assumes policies from Citizens when they meet its underwriting and profitability criteria.

Show full overview

Beyond its statewide Florida concentration, American Integrity's book is further layered across counties — Polk, Lee, and Orange each represent about 7% of Florida policies-in-force — but the 10-K warns that a catastrophic event concentrated in counties where the company writes a large volume of policies could significantly affect results. The company has cut concentrated exposure before: after identifying a 2018 'roof crisis' of fraudulent roofing damage claims in Central Florida, it shrank policies-in-force there from about 60,000 at year-end 2019 to about 35,000 by year-end 2022, illustrating both its exposure to localized claims trends and its willingness to non-renew policies to limit losses.

See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

From American Integrity Insurance Gr's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

No fresh coverage since Oct 21, 2026

Recent Developments — American Integrity Insurance Gr

Latest item Oct 21, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:28:59Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 10, 20265d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.9% away)
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.6
P/E (Fwd)8.9
Mkt Cap$571M
EV/EBITDA2.5
Profit Mgn26.2%
ROE26.2%
Rev Growth54.6%
Beta—
DividendNone
Analysts with ratings10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEINSIDER 2.69%=EXTREMEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
61 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $26.11Resistance $30.00

Price Targets

A.Upside-17.6%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! Insider activity: 2.69%=extreme

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-10 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AII stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $29.13, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.9% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $29.13 vs the analyst target $24.01: -17.6% upside; No upside left. Analyst target $24.01 reached (−17.6%), stop $26.52 (−9.8%), A.R:R -1.7:1. Score 6.8/10, high confidence.

What is the AII stock price target?

Analyst target $24.01 reached (−17.6% from $29.13); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $24.01 reached (−17.6%), stop $26.52 (−9.8%), A.R:R -1.7:1. Stop-loss: $26.52.

What are the risks of investing in AII?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.9% away); Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Is AII overvalued or undervalued?

American Integrity Insurance Gr trades at a P/E of 6.6 (forward 8.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AII?

10 analysts rate AII, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 4 analysts publish price targets averaging $28.

What does American Integrity Insurance Gr do?American Integrity Insurance Group underwrites personal residential property insurance for homeowners and condominium...

American Integrity Insurance Group underwrites personal residential property insurance for homeowners and condominium owners in Florida through its subsidiary American Integrity Insurance Company, with Florida representing 96.5% of in-force premium and 93.7% of policies in-force as of December 31, 2025. The company wrote $944.6 million in gross premiums across 421,866 policies for the year, generating net premiums written of $270.9 million and net income of $99.6 million, and has begun expanding into South Carolina, Georgia, and North Carolina.

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