Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.8 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 6.4 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.14
- ▸Attractively valued
AII · Why this verdict
Why American Integrity Insurance Gr (AII) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AII is a high-quality, fast-growing property insurer (26% ROE, 55% YoY growth, 4/4 earnings beats) but the stock now sits above the analyst target (-11.9% upside), near its 52-week high, with heavy insider selling, so the setup favors waiting for a pullback.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Fundamentals are strong: ROE of 26%, margins of 26%, 314% FCF/NI cash conversion, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | Quality score should hold at or above 7.0 and ROE above 20% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterProperty insurance earnings are catastrophe-exposed and flattered by a benign loss period; one major storm year could erase the 26% margins. | ||
Strong growth: 55% YoY, with quarterly revenue up from $74.5M to $115.2M year over year and an industry growth leader peer ranking. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should stay above $100M, in line with the $105.7M next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterInsurance premium growth that fast can come from loosened underwriting or one-time reinsurance effects, and earnings growth scores only 3.5 versus 10.0 for revenue. | ||
Perfect beat streak: 4Q, with the latest quarter at EPS of 1.78 versus a 0.89 estimate (+100% surprise) and a 59% average surprise. Earnings | EPS should beat estimates again at the 2026-11-10 report, extending the streak to 5 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterInsurance estimates are volatile and analysts may be under-modelling, so large beats may not repeat once estimates catch up. | ||
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining: the price of $26.06 is 11.9% above the analyst-derived target, near the 52-week high, leaving negative asymmetry. Bear case | A pullback toward the $24.08 entry level would restore positive asymmetry over the next few months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag fast-growing companies, and a stock with an 8.0x forward P/E and an 8.02 adjusted score could keep rising above the target. | ||
Insiders made 21 sales with a net 550,000 shares sold in 90 days and no purchases, a bearish signal against an otherwise strong picture. Insider | Insider selling should slow, with net shares traded above -100,000 over the next 90 days. | →Stable |
| CounterPost-IPO insiders and sponsors often sell on a scheduled basis for liquidity, and institutions are accumulating, so the selling may carry little information. | ||
Fundamentals are strong: ROE of 26%, margins of 26%, 314% FCF/NI cash conversion, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should hold at or above 7.0 and ROE above 20% over the next 12 months.
CounterProperty insurance earnings are catastrophe-exposed and flattered by a benign loss period; one major storm year could erase the 26% margins.
Strong growth: 55% YoY, with quarterly revenue up from $74.5M to $115.2M year over year and an industry growth leader peer ranking.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should stay above $100M, in line with the $105.7M next-quarter estimate.
CounterInsurance premium growth that fast can come from loosened underwriting or one-time reinsurance effects, and earnings growth scores only 3.5 versus 10.0 for revenue.
Perfect beat streak: 4Q, with the latest quarter at EPS of 1.78 versus a 0.89 estimate (+100% surprise) and a 59% average surprise.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should beat estimates again at the 2026-11-10 report, extending the streak to 5 quarters.
CounterInsurance estimates are volatile and analysts may be under-modelling, so large beats may not repeat once estimates catch up.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining: the price of $26.06 is 11.9% above the analyst-derived target, near the 52-week high, leaving negative asymmetry.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- A pullback toward the $24.08 entry level would restore positive asymmetry over the next few months.
CounterAnalyst targets lag fast-growing companies, and a stock with an 8.0x forward P/E and an 8.02 adjusted score could keep rising above the target.
Insiders made 21 sales with a net 550,000 shares sold in 90 days and no purchases, a bearish signal against an otherwise strong picture.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling should slow, with net shares traded above -100,000 over the next 90 days.
CounterPost-IPO insiders and sponsors often sell on a scheduled basis for liquidity, and institutions are accumulating, so the selling may carry little information.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.7 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 6.1 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 26%
- ▸Strong margins: 26%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 314% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 3.5 |
- ▸Strong growth: 55% YoY
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 9.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.2 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.4 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.48 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 9.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $16,742,297 (3.085% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.5 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (-12.7% upside).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33|V8:TARGET_REACHED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:3.08%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.04
Upside
-12.7%
Downside
12.2%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.0=NEGATIVE outcome against Quality at 7.8 and asymmetric R:R of -1.04.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.8, and Peer rank at 7.7; the weakest are Technical at 4.7, Insider at 5.1, and Sentiment at 6.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.04 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Compounder
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 15% from current 26%.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 20% YoY from the current 55%.
- P3Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifShare price rises above $30 with no increase in analyst target, from current $26.06.
- P5Insider Selling Pressure
Trip ifNet insider shares sold exceeds 1,000,000 over 90 days from current 550,000.