Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.7 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 6.2 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.20
- ▸Attractively valued
AII · Why this verdict
Why American Integrity Insurance Gr (AII) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
American Integrity is a high-return property insurer with a 4-for-4 earnings beat streak and 55% YoY growth, but the stock trades above the analyst target and insiders are selling heavily.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of 59.4%, showing earnings power ahead of expectations. Avg surprise pct | Continued EPS beats at the 2026-11-10 report, keeping average surprise positive over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterProperty and casualty insurers have lumpy catastrophe-driven results, so large surprises can reverse quickly after one storm season. | ||
Returns are excellent, with ROE of 26%, margins of 26% and cash conversion of 314% of net income. Quality breakdown | ROE and net margin stay near current levels while book value compounds over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterPeak underwriting margins in a benign catastrophe period may not persist, and reserve development could erode reported returns. | ||
Revenue grew 55% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $74.5M in mid-2025 to $115.2M in the June 2026 quarter. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stays above $100M, in line with next-quarter estimates near $105M. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth from policy count in a binary industry is exposed to regulatory and reinsurance cost shifts, and next-quarter revenue is already estimated below the latest quarter. | ||
The stock is above the analyst target, with upside of -17.9% (price is 17.9% above target) and a price of $29.26 versus a $24.01 target, limiting valuation support. Estimated upside | Either the analyst target is raised toward the price or the shares pull back toward the $25.68 entry level. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag strong earnings, and a continued beat streak could push targets up and justify the current price. | ||
Insiders sold about $17.5M, or 3.05% of market cap, across 25 sales in 90 days with no purchases, a bearish ownership signal. Total sell value 90d | Insider net selling slows and buying appears over the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterSales may be pre-planned liquidity events after a recent IPO-era lockup rather than a view on the business. | ||
The company has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of 59.4%, showing earnings power ahead of expectations.
→StableAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- Continued EPS beats at the 2026-11-10 report, keeping average surprise positive over the next 12 months.
CounterProperty and casualty insurers have lumpy catastrophe-driven results, so large surprises can reverse quickly after one storm season.
Returns are excellent, with ROE of 26%, margins of 26% and cash conversion of 314% of net income.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE and net margin stay near current levels while book value compounds over 12 months.
CounterPeak underwriting margins in a benign catastrophe period may not persist, and reserve development could erode reported returns.
Revenue grew 55% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $74.5M in mid-2025 to $115.2M in the June 2026 quarter.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays above $100M, in line with next-quarter estimates near $105M.
CounterGrowth from policy count in a binary industry is exposed to regulatory and reinsurance cost shifts, and next-quarter revenue is already estimated below the latest quarter.
The stock is above the analyst target, with upside of -17.9% (price is 17.9% above target) and a price of $29.26 versus a $24.01 target, limiting valuation support.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Either the analyst target is raised toward the price or the shares pull back toward the $25.68 entry level.
CounterAnalyst targets lag strong earnings, and a continued beat streak could push targets up and justify the current price.
Insiders sold about $17.5M, or 3.05% of market cap, across 25 sales in 90 days with no purchases, a bearish ownership signal.
→StableTotal sell value 90d
- Expectation
- Insider net selling slows and buying appears over the next two quarters.
CounterSales may be pre-planned liquidity events after a recent IPO-era lockup rather than a view on the business.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.7 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 6.1 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 26%
- ▸Strong margins: 26%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 314% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 3.5 |
- ▸Strong growth: 55% YoY
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 6.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 9.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $15,384,228 (2.695% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.5 |
| support resistance | 8.9 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 3.1 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $27.08 vs the analyst target $24.01: -11.3% upside; No upside left.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33|V8:TARGET_REACHED|SANITY:BUY+upside<=0Passed (4)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:2.69%=EXTREME
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.51
Upside
-11.3%
Downside
7.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.0<4.5 outcome against Technical at 8.5 and asymmetric R:R of -1.51.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.5, Quality at 7.8, and Peer rank at 7.8; the weakest are Momentum at 4.0, Insider at 5.1, and Sentiment at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.51 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2High Return Quality Franchise
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 15% from current 26%.
- P3Rapid Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $90M for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifShare price rises above $35 while the analyst target stays below $26, a gap of more than 30%.
- P5Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 5% of market cap over 90 days.