Value
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.8 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 6.6 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.09
- ▸Attractively valued
AII · Why this verdict
Why American Integrity Insurance Gr (AII) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
American Integrity Insurance screens as a high-quality, fast-growing compounder with a strong earnings-beat streak and an attractive multiple, but the shares have already reached the analyst price target and short-term technicals show overbought, late-cycle conditions. The setup argues for waiting for a better entry rather than chasing strength.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business screens as high quality, with a strong 26% return on equity, similarly strong margins, and cash conversion running well above net income (314% FCF/NI), alongside a wide competitive moat. Quality breakdown | These profitability and cash-conversion metrics should hold near current levels, and the wide moat should continue supporting durable earnings. | →Stable |
| CounterNone of these quality signals protect against the setup already being extended — the shares trade near a 52-week high and are overbought — so strong fundamentals don't guarantee near-term price performance. | ||
The stock screens as attractively valued on an earnings basis, with a forward P/E near 7.8x and a PEG near 1.06, even though the price has already reached the analyst price target, leaving no further modeled upside at current levels. Valuation breakdown | Either the analyst target should be raised to reflect the still-cheap multiple, or the stock should pull back toward a more favorable entry before resuming its advance. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock that is both cheap and already at its price target more likely reflects a conservative analyst target than hidden value, and the risk/reward has turned unfavorable, with downside to the stop-loss now exceeding the modeled upside to the target. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last reported quarters, with an average surprise near 59%. Last 4 quarters | The beat streak should continue, with EPS surprises staying positive across the next reporting quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA run of large positive surprises, including one exceeding 100%, can reflect conservative guidance rather than accelerating fundamentals, and such outsized beats may not repeat. | ||
Revenue growth is reported at 55% year-over-year, a pace explicitly flagged as strong in the underlying growth assessment. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay at an elevated double-digit pace over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA single strong growth print can be driven by one-time or seasonal factors in a property & casualty insurer, and the growth-dimension confidence on this read is only moderate. | ||
Momentum is positive on a trend basis, with shares above their 200-day moving average, but short-term readings show the stock is overbought (RSI 78) with distribution showing up in on-balance volume, a combination the data itself flags as a late-cycle risk. Momentum breakdown | The stock should consolidate or find support without a sharp reversal, allowing the overbought reading to cool while price holds above the 200-day trend line. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe moving-average slope is described as flat to negative alongside the overbought RSI reading, which argues against chasing further strength here. | ||
The business screens as high quality, with a strong 26% return on equity, similarly strong margins, and cash conversion running well above net income (314% FCF/NI), alongside a wide competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- These profitability and cash-conversion metrics should hold near current levels, and the wide moat should continue supporting durable earnings.
CounterNone of these quality signals protect against the setup already being extended — the shares trade near a 52-week high and are overbought — so strong fundamentals don't guarantee near-term price performance.
The stock screens as attractively valued on an earnings basis, with a forward P/E near 7.8x and a PEG near 1.06, even though the price has already reached the analyst price target, leaving no further modeled upside at current levels.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Either the analyst target should be raised to reflect the still-cheap multiple, or the stock should pull back toward a more favorable entry before resuming its advance.
CounterA stock that is both cheap and already at its price target more likely reflects a conservative analyst target than hidden value, and the risk/reward has turned unfavorable, with downside to the stop-loss now exceeding the modeled upside to the target.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last reported quarters, with an average surprise near 59%.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue, with EPS surprises staying positive across the next reporting quarters.
CounterA run of large positive surprises, including one exceeding 100%, can reflect conservative guidance rather than accelerating fundamentals, and such outsized beats may not repeat.
Revenue growth is reported at 55% year-over-year, a pace explicitly flagged as strong in the underlying growth assessment.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay at an elevated double-digit pace over the next several quarters.
CounterA single strong growth print can be driven by one-time or seasonal factors in a property & casualty insurer, and the growth-dimension confidence on this read is only moderate.
Momentum is positive on a trend basis, with shares above their 200-day moving average, but short-term readings show the stock is overbought (RSI 78) with distribution showing up in on-balance volume, a combination the data itself flags as a late-cycle risk.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock should consolidate or find support without a sharp reversal, allowing the overbought reading to cool while price holds above the 200-day trend line.
CounterThe moving-average slope is described as flat to negative alongside the overbought RSI reading, which argues against chasing further strength here.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.7 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 6.1 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 26%
- ▸Strong margins: 26%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 314% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 3.5 |
- ▸Strong growth: 55% YoY
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 1.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.7 |
| holder change | 9.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $8,753,578 (1.708% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 9.3 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.6 |
| support resistance | 1.5 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 9.5 |
| volatility | 4.5 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (-11.7% upside).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE|V8:TARGET_REACHED|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (5)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:67d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:1.71%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.78
Upside
-11.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (7.8) with weak momentum (3.3)
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.3<4.5 outcome against Risk (lower is worse) at 8.2 and asymmetric R:R of -0.78.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.2, Quality at 7.8, and Peer rank at 7.8; the weakest are Momentum at 3.3, Technical at 5.1, and Insider at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.78 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Compounder Fundamentals
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 15%, down sharply from the current 26% level.
- P2Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) in the next reported quarter, breaking the current four-quarter beat streak.
- P3Strong Revenue Growth Pace
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY, down sharply from the current 55% pace.
- P4Cheap Multiple Versus Target Reached
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x, nearly double the current 7.8x level.
- P5Overbought Late Cycle Momentum Risk
Trip ifThe stock falls below the $19.25 stop-loss level, confirming a break of the broader uptrend.