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HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, InBuy Wait6.3·$26.95+0.52%
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Heritage Insurance Holdings, In (HRTG) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Wait for pullback to $24.54. BUY gates pass at $26.95, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and overbought (RSI 80) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $24.54 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides personal and commercial residential insurance products. It offers personal residential insurance in Alabama, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi,... Read more

$26.95+11.0% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#6 of 40 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield19.47%
Entry $24.54(50-day MA)Stop $22.82Target $27.24(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$31.50+16.9%2 analysts
$27.24our TP
$26.95price
$31.50mean
$36

Wait for pullback to $24.54. BUY gates pass at $26.95, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and overbought (RSI 80) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $24.54 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-1.3% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-05
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Overbought (RSI 80)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)4.2
P/E (Fwd)5.7
Mkt Cap$821M
EV/EBITDA1.3
Profit Mgn23.8%
ROE47.5%
Rev Growth0.5%
Beta0.88
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV69%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.7
Support Resistance
1.0
52w Position
7.0
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
80 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $20.79Resistance $27.80

Price Targets

$23
$25
$27
A.Upside+1.1%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.7%
Max %1.4%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HRTG stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $24.54. BUY gates pass at $26.95, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and overbought (RSI 80) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $24.54 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-1.3% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $27.24 (+1.1%), stop $22.82 (−18.1%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HRTG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.24 (+11.0% upside). Target $27.24 (+1.1%), stop $22.82 (−18.1%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $22.82.

What are the risks of investing in HRTG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Overbought (RSI 80).

Is HRTG overvalued or undervalued?

Heritage Insurance Holdings, In trades at a P/E of 4.2 (forward 5.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about HRTG?

9 analysts cover HRTG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $32.

What does Heritage Insurance Holdings, In do?Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides personal and commercial residential insurance...

Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides personal and commercial residential insurance products. It offers personal residential insurance in Alabama, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Virginia; and commercial residential property insurance in Florida, Hawaii, New Jersey, and New York. The company also provides homeowners insurance, condo insurance, dwelling fire, equipment coverage, and artisan contractor program. It offers insurance products through a network of independent agents. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

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