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AGYSAgilysys, Inc.Buy Wait5.7·$98.54+3.72%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A software company with strong earnings growth, excellent cash conversion, and substantial analyst-implied upside is held back by a confirmed downtrend and an uneven recent earnings execution record — a fundamentally capable business in a technically broken chart.

Thesis pillars

  • Earnings Growth Estimates RisingStable
  • Strong Free Cash ConversionStable
  • Confirmed Price DowntrendDeteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Agilysys, Inc. (AGYS) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitGrowthModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 2 days (2026-07-27). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $93.81. At $98.54 the A.R:R is 1.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $93.81 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Agilysys delivers cloud-native and on-premise software solutions for the hospitality industry, serving hotels, casinos, resorts, cruise lines, and food service operations globally from its Alpharetta, Georgia headquarters. Total revenue reached $319.3 million in fiscal 2026, led... Read more

$98.54+12.4% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#71 of 125 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.76%
Entry $93.81(support + ATR (held))Stop $84.51Target $110.78(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$127.33+29.2%6 analysts
$110.78our TP
$98.54price
$127.33mean
$159

Wait for pullback to $93.81. At $98.54 the A.R:R is 1.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $93.81 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 2d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jul 27, 20262d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
No bear case signals

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)69.4
P/E (Fwd)30.9
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA61.3
Profit Mgn12.1%
ROE13.1%
Rev Growth11.7%
Beta0.36
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.55bullish
IV82%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductsubscription and maintenance revenue
    10-K Item 1: 'Software subscription and maintenance services are a significant portion of our consolidated revenue'
  • MEDIUMSupplierhardware and software suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on a concentrated number of suppliers for the majority of our hardware and for certain software and related service needs.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.5
Ma Position
5.0
Rsi
8.0
Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 2d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $94.74Resistance $114.25

Price Targets

$85
$94
$111
A.Upside+12.4%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 2 days - binary event risk
! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (2d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGYS stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $93.81. At $98.54 the A.R:R is 1.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $93.81 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $110.78 (+12.4%), stop $84.51 (−16.6%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGYS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $110.78 (+12.4% upside). Target $110.78 (+12.4%), stop $84.51 (−16.6%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Stop-loss: $84.51.

Is AGYS overvalued or undervalued?

Agilysys, Inc. trades at a P/E of 69.4 (forward 30.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AGYS?

14 analysts cover AGYS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $127.

What does Agilysys, Inc. do?Agilysys delivers cloud-native and on-premise software solutions for the hospitality industry, serving hotels, casinos,...

Agilysys delivers cloud-native and on-premise software solutions for the hospitality industry, serving hotels, casinos, resorts, cruise lines, and food service operations globally from its Alpharetta, Georgia headquarters. Total revenue reached $319.3 million in fiscal 2026, led by subscription and maintenance at $205.9 million, with the company operating across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific.

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