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AGYSAgilysys, Inc.Sell5.9·$99.66
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A software company with strong earnings growth, excellent cash conversion, and substantial analyst-implied upside is held back by a confirmed downtrend and an uneven recent earnings execution record — a fundamentally capable business in a technically broken chart.

Thesis pillars

  • Earnings Growth Estimates Rising→Stable
  • Strong Free Cash Conversion→Stable
  • Confirmed Price Downtrend↑Improving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Agilysys, Inc. (AGYS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $99.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Agilysys delivers cloud-native and on-premise software solutions for the hospitality industry, serving hotels, casinos, resorts, cruise lines, and food service operations globally from its Alpharetta, Georgia headquarters. Total revenue reached $319.3 million in fiscal 2026, led... Read more

$99.66+17.4% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#48 of 118 Software - Application
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.04%
Stop $93.52Target $117.02(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$134.50+35.0%6 analysts
$117.02our TP
$99.66price
$134.50mean
$159

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $99.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Oct 26, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Wide economic moat
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)66.5
P/E (Fwd)31.1
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA55.4
Profit Mgn13.0%
ROE13.8%
Rev Growth14.3%
Beta0.38
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.26bullish
IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductsubscription and maintenance revenue
    10-K Item 1: 'Software subscription and maintenance services are a significant portion of our consolidated revenue'
  • MEDIUMSupplierhardware and software suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on a concentrated number of suppliers for the majority of our hardware and for certain software and related service needs.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5INSIDER 0.82%=HEAVYA.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
26 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $96.41Resistance $121.59

Price Targets

$94
$117
A.Upside+17.4%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Insider activity: 0.82%=heavy

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-26 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGYS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $99.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $93.52. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGYS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $117.02 (+17.4% upside). Prior stop was $93.52. Stop-loss: $93.52.

What are the risks of investing in AGYS?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is AGYS overvalued or undervalued?

Agilysys, Inc. trades at a P/E of 66.5 (forward 31.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AGYS?

15 analysts cover AGYS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $135.

What does Agilysys, Inc. do?Agilysys delivers cloud-native and on-premise software solutions for the hospitality industry, serving hotels, casinos,...

Agilysys delivers cloud-native and on-premise software solutions for the hospitality industry, serving hotels, casinos, resorts, cruise lines, and food service operations globally from its Alpharetta, Georgia headquarters. Total revenue reached $319.3 million in fiscal 2026, led by subscription and maintenance at $205.9 million, with the company operating across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific.

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