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AGIAlamos Gold Inc.Buy Wait7.2·$30.00+2.11%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Alamos Gold combines high-quality operating characteristics — 51% margins, a wide moat, and 79% revenue growth — with an attractively valued setup at 11x forward earnings and a roughly 4.4-to-1 risk/reward, though free cash flow converting to only 14% of net income and a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.8 remain key risks to watch.

Thesis pillars

  • Pullback In Rising UptrendImproving
  • Elite Margins Wide MoatStable
  • Attractive Valuation UpsideStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Earnings in 4 days (2026-07-29). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $30.42 but a supporting gate (fundamentals / technicals) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Below 200-day MA.

Alamos Gold Inc. operates as a gold producer in Canada and Mexico. It primarily explores for gold deposits. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

$30.00+36.5% A.UpsideScore 7.2/10#9 of 41 Gold
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.24%
IncomeYield0.54%(5y avg 0.78%)Payout4.58%sustainable
Entry $30.42(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $28.04Target $40.38(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 4.5:1
Analyst target$47.50+58.3%4 analysts
$40.38our TP
$30.00price
$47.50mean
$60

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $30.42 but a supporting gate (fundamentals / technicals) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. V9 Gate blocked: Earnings in 4 days (≤7d hard window); SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3. Wait for improvement. Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/11 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 4d<=7d and sector concentration cap sector=basic materials count=3 cap=3. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26

Recent Developments — Alamos Gold Inc.

Generated 2026-07-26T08:02:03Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 20264d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong overall score: 7.2/10
High-quality business
Risks
Earnings in 4 days (event risk)
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.7
P/E (Fwd)9.3
Mkt Cap$12.4B
EV/EBITDA8.8
Profit Mgn51.2%
ROE25.9%
Rev Growth79.2%
Beta1.33
Dividend0.54%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.16bullish
IV59%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Basic Materials count=3 cap=3Death cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 5.5>=5.5A.R:R 4.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $27.63Resistance $32.34

Price Targets

$28
$30
$40
A.Upside+36.5%
A.R:R4.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.8%
Max %3.5%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 4 days (≤7d hard window)
! SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGI stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $30.42 but a supporting gate (fundamentals / technicals) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. V9 Gate blocked: Earnings in 4 days (≤7d hard window); SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3. Wait for improvement. Target $40.38 (+34.6%), stop $28.04 (−7.0%), A.R:R 4.5:1. Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.38 (+36.5% upside). Target $40.38 (+34.6%), stop $28.04 (−7.0%), A.R:R 4.5:1. Stop-loss: $28.04.

What are the risks of investing in AGI?

Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Below 200-day MA.

Is AGI overvalued or undervalued?

Alamos Gold Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.7 (forward 9.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AGI?

15 analysts cover AGI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Alamos Gold Inc. do?Alamos Gold Inc. operates as a gold producer in Canada and Mexico. It primarily explores for gold deposits. The company...

Alamos Gold Inc. operates as a gold producer in Canada and Mexico. It primarily explores for gold deposits. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

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