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XPEL, Inc. (XPEL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.13: Risk below floor (2.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.50; Negative price momentum.

XPEL, Inc. manufactures, installs, sells, and distributes protective films, coatings and related services. It offers automotive and surface paint protection, windshield protection, and automotive and architectural window films, as well as proprietary DAP software. The company... Read more

$42.13+11.6% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#11 of 27 Auto Parts
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.44%
Stop $39.18Target $47.03(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$55.33+31.3%3 analysts
$47.03our TP
$42.13price
$55.33mean
$56

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.13: Risk below floor (2.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.50; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — XPEL, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Risk below floor (2.0 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.6
P/E (Fwd)17.9
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA15.0
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE20.3%
Rev Growth13.1%
Beta1.13
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.50bearish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$35-16.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Volatile — 6.6% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Days To Cover
0.4
Implied Vol
2.6
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Short Interest
3.7
Beta
6.5
Elevated put/call: 2.50High IV: 65%Above max pain $35

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $39.83Resistance $52.66

Price Targets

$39
$47
A.Upside+11.6%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (2.0 < 3.0)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is XPEL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.13: Risk below floor (2.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.50; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $39.18. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the XPEL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $47.03 (+11.6% upside). Prior stop was $39.18. Stop-loss: $39.18.

What are the risks of investing in XPEL?

Risk below floor (2.0 < 3.0).

Is XPEL overvalued or undervalued?

XPEL, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.6 (forward 17.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about XPEL?

9 analysts cover XPEL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $55.

What does XPEL, Inc. do?XPEL, Inc. manufactures, installs, sells, and distributes protective films, coatings and related services. It offers...

XPEL, Inc. manufactures, installs, sells, and distributes protective films, coatings and related services. It offers automotive and surface paint protection, windshield protection, and automotive and architectural window films, as well as proprietary DAP software. The company also provides pre-cut film products, merchandise and apparel, ceramic coatings, installation, and tools and accessories; and training services to customers for the installation of its products. In addition, the company offers paint protection kits, car wash products, after-care products, and installation tools through its website. The company sells and distributes its products through independent installers, new car dealerships, third-party distributors, automobile original equipment manufacturers, and company-owned installation centers, as well as through franchisees and online channels. The company operates in the United States, Canada, China, the Asia Pacific, European Union, the United Kingdom, Africa, India, the Middle East, Latin America, and internationally. XPEL, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

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