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Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $161.43: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

ExxonMobil explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas, and manufactures and sells petroleum products, petrochemicals, and specialty products across Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. The company operates in the United States... Read more

$161.43-1.5% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#16 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.73%
IncomeYield2.53%(5y avg 3.75%)Payout68.01%
Stop $154.21Target $160.05(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$168.32+4.3%22 analysts
$160.05our TP
$161.43price
$168.32mean
$130
$185

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $161.43: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

About Exxon Mobil Corporation

ExxonMobil generated roughly $340 billion in 2025 consolidated revenue across four reporting segments — Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products — with operations or marketing activity in the United States and most other countries of the world. The company employed 58,000 regular workers at year-end 2025, down from 61,000 a year earlier, and held over 8,000 active patents worldwide at the close of the same period.

Revenue arises from exploration for and production of crude oil and natural gas; the manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission opportunities including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen and ammonia, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima resin systems, carbon materials, low-carbon data centers, and lithium. Under the 10-K's own framing, the Upstream segment is most exposed to material declines in oil and natural gas prices, while the Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments are most exposed to material increases in those same prices — a partial natural offset across the integrated portfolio. The Corporation characterizes its oil, gas, and petrochemical operations as commodity businesses, with margins on refined products dependent on local, regional, and global supply-and-demand conditions. Project economics depend on long-cycle capital deployment, joint-venture co-operator performance where ExxonMobil is not the operator, and contractual rights with host governments and partners.

Show full overview

Greenhouse-gas policy exposure cuts both ways for ExxonMobil under the filing's framing. Cap-and-trade regimes, carbon taxes, carbon-based import duties, electric-vehicle sales mandates, and restrictions on gasoline-only vehicles may weigh on hydrocarbon demand and could lengthen project implementation times, while paired opportunities sit in the Low Carbon Solutions business unit pursuing carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, ammonia, lower-emission fuels, and lithium. The Corporation discloses an ambition ultimately to achieve net zero with respect to Scope 1 and 2 emissions from operated assets, conditioned on continued technology development and government policy support. In May 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K the appointment of Susan Buchanan as Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer effective July 1, 2026, succeeding Len M. Fox.

See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

From Exxon Mobil Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted May 16, 2026.

Recent Developments — Exxon Mobil Corporation

Material events (past 30 days)

  • May 4, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Len M. Fox, Vice President, Controller and Tax (principal accounting officer), announced his intention to retire effective July 1, 2026. The Corporation elected Susan Buchanan as Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer effective the same date; Buchanan most recently served as President of ExxonM

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-6.8% upside)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (17 sells, 0.15% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.4
P/E (Fwd)15.6
Mkt Cap$673.8B
EV/EBITDA12.8
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE9.9%
Rev Growth2.6%
Beta0.18
Dividend2.53%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.64bullish
IV49%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-04Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Len M. Fox, Vice President, Controller and Tax (principal accounting officer), announced his intention to retire effective July 1, 2026. The Corporation elected Susan Buchanan as Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer effective the same date; Buchanan most recently served as President of ExxonMobil Global Business Solutions since February 2026. Clean handoff.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02LOW
    Director Jeffrey W. Ubben announced his intention not to stand for re-election at the May 27, 2026 annual meeting, for reasons unrelated to the company. He will remain on the board until the annual meeting. No successor named in the filing.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.1

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.4
52w Position
8.6

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
2.0
Operating Margin
2.5
Roa
2.8
Roe
3.3
Fcf Quality
3.7
Net Margin
3.9
Current Ratio
4.1
Moat
5.2
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 46% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.6
Quality Rank
3.6
Growth Rank
5.3
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $142.95Resistance $163.32

Price Targets

$154
$160
A.Upside-0.9%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (17 sells, 0.15% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is XOM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $161.43: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $154.21. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the XOM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $160.05 (-1.5% upside). Prior stop was $154.21. Stop-loss: $154.21.

What are the risks of investing in XOM?

Target reached (-6.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (17 sells, 0.15% of cap), Negative free cash flow.

Is XOM overvalued or undervalued?

Exxon Mobil Corporation trades at a P/E of 27.4 (forward 15.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about XOM?

31 analysts cover XOM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $168.

What does Exxon Mobil Corporation do?ExxonMobil explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas, and manufactures and sells petroleum products,...

ExxonMobil explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas, and manufactures and sells petroleum products, petrochemicals, and specialty products across Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. The company operates in the United States and most other countries, employed 58,000 workers at year-end 2025, and is pursuing lower-emission businesses including carbon capture, hydrogen, and lithium.

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