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Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Earnings in 0 days (2026-05-01). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $135.57. BUY gates pass at $153.88, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $135.57 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

ExxonMobil is a global integrated oil, gas, and petrochemical company exploring, producing, refining, and selling hydrocarbons and specialty chemicals in the US and most countries worldwide. Revenue is primarily from commodity-priced hydrocarbon sales. The company employs... Read more

$153.88+9.2% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#15 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
Entry $135.57(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $127.61Target $163.56(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1Setup A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$166.14+8.0%22 analysts
$163.56our TP
$153.88price
$166.14mean
$123
$195

Wait for pullback to $135.57. BUY gates pass at $153.88, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $135.57 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Val6.0Qual4.1Grw1.1Mom6.5Sent6.4Ins5.0Peer4.0Tech5.8Risk7.54.9OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.1
P/E (Fwd)15.2
Mkt Cap$642.9B
EV/EBITDA11.6
Profit Mgn8.9%
ROE11.1%
Rev Growth-1.3%
Beta0.29
Dividend2.66%
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.08bearish
IV51%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02LOW
    Jeffrey W. Ubben announced he will not stand for re-election at the May 27, 2026 annual meeting; will remain on board until that date. Decision for reasons unrelated to the company. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -1.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.2
Declining revenue: -1%
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $141.97Resistance $166.90

Price Targets

$128
$136
$164
A.Upside+6.3%
A.R:R-0.4:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.7% upside)
! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-01 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is XOM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $135.57. BUY gates pass at $153.88, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $135.57 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $163.56 (+6.3%), stop $127.61 (−20.6%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the XOM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $163.56 (+9.2% upside). Target $163.56 (+6.3%), stop $127.61 (−20.6%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $127.61.

What are the risks of investing in XOM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is XOM overvalued or undervalued?

Exxon Mobil Corporation trades at a P/E of 23.1 (forward 15.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about XOM?

32 analysts cover XOM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $166.

What does Exxon Mobil Corporation do?ExxonMobil is a global integrated oil, gas, and petrochemical company exploring, producing, refining, and selling...

ExxonMobil is a global integrated oil, gas, and petrochemical company exploring, producing, refining, and selling hydrocarbons and specialty chemicals in the US and most countries worldwide. Revenue is primarily from commodity-priced hydrocarbon sales. The company employs approximately 58,000 people and is expanding into lower-emission businesses (CCS, hydrogen, lithium).

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