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XOMExxon Mobil CorporationSell4.8·$141.79+0.62%
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Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $141.79: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

ExxonMobil's principal business spans exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, manufacture and sale of petroleum products, petrochemicals, and specialty products, and lower-emission opportunities including carbon capture, hydrogen, and lithium. The company... Read more

$141.79+7.8% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#15 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.99%
IncomeYield2.92%(5y avg 3.70%)Payout68.01%
Stop $133.90Target $152.92(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$169.91+19.8%22 analysts
$152.92our TP
$141.79price
$169.91mean
$130
$185

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $141.79: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Exxon Mobil Corporation

About Exxon Mobil Corporation

ExxonMobil generated roughly $340 billion in 2025 consolidated revenue across four reporting segments — Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products — with operations or marketing activity in the United States and most other countries of the world. The company employed 58,000 regular workers at year-end 2025, down from 61,000 a year earlier, and held over 8,000 active patents worldwide at the close of the same period.

Revenue arises from exploration for and production of crude oil and natural gas; the manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission opportunities including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen and ammonia, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima resin systems, carbon materials, low-carbon data centers, and lithium. Under the 10-K's own framing, the Upstream segment is most exposed to material declines in oil and natural gas prices, while the Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments are most exposed to material increases in those same prices — a partial natural offset across the integrated portfolio. The Corporation characterizes its oil, gas, and petrochemical operations as commodity businesses, with margins on refined products dependent on local, regional, and global supply-and-demand conditions. Project economics depend on long-cycle capital deployment, joint-venture co-operator performance where ExxonMobil is not the operator, and contractual rights with host governments and partners.

Show full overview

Greenhouse-gas policy exposure cuts both ways for ExxonMobil under the filing's framing. Cap-and-trade regimes, carbon taxes, carbon-based import duties, electric-vehicle sales mandates, and restrictions on gasoline-only vehicles may weigh on hydrocarbon demand and could lengthen project implementation times, while paired opportunities sit in the Low Carbon Solutions business unit pursuing carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, ammonia, lower-emission fuels, and lithium. The Corporation discloses an ambition ultimately to achieve net zero with respect to Scope 1 and 2 emissions from operated assets, conditioned on continued technology development and government policy support. In May 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K the appointment of Susan Buchanan as Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer effective July 1, 2026, succeeding Len M. Fox.

See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

From Exxon Mobil Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted May 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 31, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Recent Analyst Cluster(4) detected in news
Risks
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.7
P/E (Fwd)13.2
Mkt Cap$584.1B
EV/EBITDA11.2
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE9.9%
Rev Growth2.6%
Beta0.15
Dividend2.92%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.58bullish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$131-7.6% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-04Item 5.02MEDIUM
    VP and Controller Len M. Fox (principal accounting officer) announced retirement effective July 1, 2026. Susan Buchanan elected VP and Chief Accounting Officer effective July 1, 2026, succeeding Fox. Clean handoff with named successor announced same day.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.1

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Volume
4.2
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
2.0
Operating Margin
2.5
Roa
2.8
Roe
3.3
Fcf Quality
3.7
Net Margin
3.9
Current Ratio
4.1
Moat
5.2
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 46% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.6
Quality Rank
3.5
Growth Rank
5.3
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(4)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $137.72Resistance $163.68

Price Targets

$134
$153
A.Upside+7.8%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is XOM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $141.79: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $133.90. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the XOM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $152.92 (+7.8% upside). Prior stop was $133.90. Stop-loss: $133.90.

What are the risks of investing in XOM?

Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is XOM overvalued or undervalued?

Exxon Mobil Corporation trades at a P/E of 23.7 (forward 13.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about XOM?

31 analysts cover XOM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $170.

What does Exxon Mobil Corporation do?ExxonMobil's principal business spans exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, manufacture and sale of...

ExxonMobil's principal business spans exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, manufacture and sale of petroleum products, petrochemicals, and specialty products, and lower-emission opportunities including carbon capture, hydrogen, and lithium. The company operates across Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments with 58,000 employees at year-end 2025 and over 8,000 active patents. Operations span the United States and most other countries of the world.

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