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BP p.l.c. (BP) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $46.14, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 11.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading... Read more

$46.14+0.1% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#9 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.54%
IncomeYield4.37%(5y avg 4.86%)Payout160.00%at-risk
Stop $44.18Target $46.19(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$49.46+7.2%17 analysts
$46.19our TP
$46.14price
$49.46mean
$31
$62

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $46.14, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 11.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 49, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=11.2x,ratio=0.30x. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — BP p.l.c.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 11.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.4% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)36.8
P/E (Fwd)11.2
Mkt Cap$117.7B
EV/EBITDA22.3
Profit Mgn1.7%
ROE5.8%
Rev Growth11.6%
Beta-0.22
Dividend4.37%
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.06bullish
IV42%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.6
Value Rank
3.4
Growth Rank
6.5
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=11.2x,ratio=0.30xMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $42.74Resistance $47.13

Price Targets

$44
$46
A.Upside+0.1%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=11.2x,ratio=0.30x

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $46.14, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 11.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 49, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $46.19 (+0.1%), stop $44.18 (−4.4%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.19 (+0.1% upside). Target $46.19 (+0.1%), stop $44.18 (−4.4%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $44.18.

What are the risks of investing in BP?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 11.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.4% away).

Is BP overvalued or undervalued?

BP p.l.c. trades at a P/E of 36.8 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BP?

32 analysts cover BP with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $49.

What does BP p.l.c. do?BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through...

BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses. The company also offers aviation fuel products and services, such as jet fuel; aviation gasoline; UL91 aviation fuel; and sustainable aviation fuel. In addition, it engages in the convenience and retail fuel; EV charging; Castrol lubricants and fluids; B2B; midstream; crude oil production; refining and oil trading; and bioenergy businesses. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

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