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Watsco, Inc. (WSO) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $440.21 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Watsco, Inc. and its subsidiaries (collectively, "Watsco," the "Company", or "we," "us," or "our") was incorporated in Florida in 1956 and is the largest distributor of air conditioning, heating and refrigeration equipment and related parts and supplies ("HVAC/R") in the HVAC/R... Read more

$440.21+2.2% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#17 of 17 Industrial Distribution
Stop $409.20Target $449.82(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$421.27-4.3%11 analysts
$449.82our TP
$440.21price
$421.27mean
$370
$485

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $440.21 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Weak overall score: 4.4/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.0
P/E (Fwd)30.0
Mkt Cap$17.4B
EV/EBITDA22.6
Profit Mgn6.9%
ROE18.6%
Rev Growth0.1%
Beta1.05
Dividend3.08%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.60bullish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$220-50.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.9
Revenue Growth
2.5

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.6
Value Rank
2.3
Quality Rank
5.4
GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $357.81Resistance $459.00

Price Targets

$409
$450
A.Upside+2.2%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-16.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WSO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $440.21 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $409.20. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WSO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $449.82 (+2.2% upside). Prior stop was $409.20. Stop-loss: $409.20.

What are the risks of investing in WSO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak overall score: 4.4/10.

Is WSO overvalued or undervalued?

Watsco, Inc. trades at a P/E of 35.0 (forward 30.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WSO?

20 analysts cover WSO with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $421.

What does Watsco, Inc. do?Watsco, Inc. and its subsidiaries (collectively, "Watsco," the "Company", or "we," "us," or "our") was incorporated in...

Watsco, Inc. and its subsidiaries (collectively, "Watsco," the "Company", or "we," "us," or "our") was incorporated in Florida in 1956 and is the largest distributor of air conditioning, heating and refrigeration equipment and related parts and supplies ("HVAC/R") in the HVAC/R distribution industry in North America. At December 31, 2025, we operated from 695 locations in 43 U.S.

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