Skip to main content

Watsco, Inc. (WSO) Stock Analysis

SellHigh Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $391.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Watsco, Inc. and its subsidiaries (collectively, "Watsco," the "Company", or "we," "us," or "our") was incorporated in Florida in 1956 and is the largest distributor of air conditioning, heating and refrigeration equipment and related parts and supplies ("HVAC/R") in the HVAC/R... Read more

$391.69+14.8% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#17 of 17 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.29%
IncomeYield3.37%(5y avg 2.68%)Payout98.44%at-risk
Stop $379.35Target $449.82(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$423.55+8.1%11 analysts
$449.82our TP
$391.69price
$423.55mean
$370
$485

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $391.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Watsco, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.2
P/E (Fwd)27.4
Mkt Cap$15.9B
EV/EBITDA22.1
Profit Mgn6.9%
ROE18.6%
Rev Growth0.1%
Beta1.10
Dividend3.37%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.41bearish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$310-20.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.4
Revenue Growth
2.5

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.1
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
8.1
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 29)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.6
Value Rank
3.0
Quality Rank
5.7
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $391.08Resistance $459.00

Price Targets

$379
$450
A.Upside+14.8%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.9% upside)
! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WSO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $391.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $379.35. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

What is the WSO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $449.82 (+14.8% upside). Prior stop was $379.35. Stop-loss: $379.35.

What are the risks of investing in WSO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is WSO overvalued or undervalued?

Watsco, Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.2 (forward 27.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WSO?

20 analysts cover WSO with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $424.

What does Watsco, Inc. do?Watsco, Inc. and its subsidiaries (collectively, "Watsco," the "Company", or "we," "us," or "our") was incorporated in...

Watsco, Inc. and its subsidiaries (collectively, "Watsco," the "Company", or "we," "us," or "our") was incorporated in Florida in 1956 and is the largest distributor of air conditioning, heating and refrigeration equipment and related parts and supplies ("HVAC/R") in the HVAC/R distribution industry in North America. At December 31, 2025, we operated from 695 locations in 43 U.S.

Related stocks: DXPE (DXP Enterprises, Inc.) · DNOW (DNOW Inc.) · REZI (Resideo Technologies, Inc.) · XMTR (Xometry, Inc.) · GWW (W.W. Grainger, Inc.)