Watsco is an HVAC distribution business with a strong Piotroski score of 7/9 and solid free cash flow quality, but three consecutive earnings misses, analyst estimates trending down 16% over 30 days, and a dividend payout ratio of 343% create a fragile income and earnings outlook.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Miss Streak→Stable
- Dividend Payout Sustainability→Stable
- Operational Quality Resilience→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Watsco, Inc. (WSO) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Wait for pullback to $353.82. At $364.86 the A.R:R is 0.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $353.82 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Watsco, Inc. and its subsidiaries (collectively, "Watsco," the "Company", or "we," "us," or "our") was incorporated in Florida in 1956 and is the largest distributor of air conditioning, heating and refrigeration equipment and related parts and supplies ("HVAC/R") in the HVAC/R... Read more
Wait for pullback to $353.82. At $364.86 the A.R:R is 0.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $353.82 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 2d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-27Recent Developments — Watsco, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Watsco (WSO) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Should You Buy? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS WSO stock trades steady as Watsco revenue growth and margin resilience support valuation - Ad-hoc-news.de — Ad-hoc-news.de positive
- NEWS WSO stock trades steady as Watsco revenue growth and margin resilience support valuation - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS positive
- NEWS WSO (Watsco Inc.) shares rise nearly 2 percent despite posting a wider than expected Q4 2025 EPS miss. - Cổng thông tin — Cổng thông tin điện tử Tỉnh Sơn La negative
- NEWS M&T Bank Corp Increases Stock Holdings in Watsco, Inc. $WSO - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-07-27T14:48:12Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $353.82. At $364.86 the A.R:R is 0.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $353.82 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $372.97 (+2.2%), stop $329.78 (−10.6%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $372.97 (+2.4% upside). Target $372.97 (+2.2%), stop $329.78 (−10.6%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Stop-loss: $329.78.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Watsco, Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.7 (forward 25.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
23 analysts cover WSO with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $429.
What does Watsco, Inc. do?Watsco, Inc. and its subsidiaries (collectively, "Watsco," the "Company", or "we," "us," or "our") was incorporated in...
Watsco, Inc. and its subsidiaries (collectively, "Watsco," the "Company", or "we," "us," or "our") was incorporated in Florida in 1956 and is the largest distributor of air conditioning, heating and refrigeration equipment and related parts and supplies ("HVAC/R") in the HVAC/R distribution industry in North America. At December 31, 2025, we operated from 695 locations in 43 U.S.