Skip to main content

Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.20: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.50; Below-average business quality.

Vermilion Energy Inc., engages in petroleum and natural gas, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and optimization of producing properties in North America, Europe, and Australia. Its properties are located in the West Pembina region of West Central Alberta,... Read more

$13.20+2.0% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#19 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield13.56%
IncomeYield3.06%(5y avg 13.14%)Payout76.12%
Stop $12.28Target $13.47(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.20: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 47, MACD bullish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Vermilion Energy Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (3/5): High leverage (D/E 2.9), Material insider selling (24 sells, 0.65% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)19.8
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA3.7
Profit Mgn-46.7%
ROE-20.7%
Rev Growth9.9%
Beta0.53
Dividend3.06%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV50%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.9
Current Ratio
2.5
Moat
5.9
Fcf Quality
7.1
Gross Margin
8.3
Piotroski F
8.9
FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 15%, FCF yield 13.6%)Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.5
Growth Rank
4.9
Value Rank
9.7
GatesA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.40Resistance $13.74

Price Targets

$12
$13
A.Upside+2.0%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (3/5): High leverage (D/E 2.9), Material insider selling (24 sells, 0.65% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VET stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.20: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 47, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $12.28. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VET stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.47 (+2.0% upside). Prior stop was $12.28. Stop-loss: $12.28.

What are the risks of investing in VET?

Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): High leverage (D/E 2.9), Material insider selling (24 sells, 0.65% of cap), Negative free cash flow.

Is VET overvalued or undervalued?

Vermilion Energy Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 19.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VET?

15 analysts cover VET with a consensus score of 3.5/5.

What does Vermilion Energy Inc. do?Vermilion Energy Inc., engages in petroleum and natural gas, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and...

Vermilion Energy Inc., engages in petroleum and natural gas, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and optimization of producing properties in North America, Europe, and Australia. Its properties are located in the West Pembina region of West Central Alberta, Canada; southwest Bordeaux and Paris Basin in France; the Netherlands; Germany; Ireland; Croatia; Slovakia; Hungary; and Australia. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

Related stocks: DMLP (Dorchester Minerals, L.P.) · GPOR (Gulfport Energy Corporation) · CNX (CNX Resources Corporation) · AR (Antero Resources Corporation) · VIST (Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.)