Skip to main content
UGIUGI CorporationSell4.8·$35.37+0.31%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

UGI Corporation trades at an attractively valued forward P/E of 10.3x and ranks favorably against regulated gas utility peers on price-to-earnings, but a confirmed death cross and negative momentum create a timing headwind that prevents a compelling near-term entry.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Peer RankImproving
  • Death Cross Momentum HeadwindImproving
  • Earnings Quality Fcf ConcernImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

UGI Corporation (UGI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueModerate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $35.37: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.33; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

UGI Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution, storage, transportation, and marketing of energy products and related services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Utilities, Midstream & Marketing,... Read more

$35.37-0.7% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#12 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-3.11%
IncomeYield4.24%(5y avg 4.59%)Payout49.83%sustainable
Stop $33.77Target $36.87(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$41.33+16.9%3 analysts
$36.87our TP
$35.37price
$41.33mean
$42

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $35.37: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.33; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 94d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-16
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 18, 202694d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-0.7% upside)
Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.8
P/E (Fwd)10.9
Mkt Cap$7.6B
EV/EBITDA8.1
Profit Mgn9.2%
ROE13.3%
Rev Growth-4.5%
Beta0.95
Dividend4.24%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.33bearish
IV43%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-28Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Kathleen Shea Ballay departed UGI Corporation, effective May 26, 2026. Duties and responsibilities assumed by internal members of the legal team until a successor is named. No permanent successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-26Item 1.01LOW
    AmeriGas Partners, L.P. and AmeriGas Finance Corp. (indirect subsidiaries of UGI) issued $500.0 million of 6.875% senior unsecured notes due 2031 on May 20, 2026 via private placement under Rule 144A/Reg S.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -4.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.4
Earnings Growth
3.6
Declining revenue: -4%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.7
Earnings History
1.1
Dividend Safety
3.7
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 94d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $33.54Resistance $37.62

Price Targets

$34
$37
A.Upside-0.7%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.7% upside)
! Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
! momentum at 4.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-18 (94d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UGI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $35.37: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.33; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $33.77. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UGI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.87 (-0.7% upside). Prior stop was $33.77. Stop-loss: $33.77.

What are the risks of investing in UGI?

Target reached (-0.7% upside); Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0).

Is UGI overvalued or undervalued?

UGI Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.8 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UGI?

7 analysts cover UGI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $41.

What does UGI Corporation do?UGI Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution, storage, transportation, and marketing of...

UGI Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution, storage, transportation, and marketing of energy products and related services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Utilities, Midstream & Marketing, UGI International, and AmeriGas Propane. It distributes propane to approximately 801 million residential, commercial/industrial, motor fuel, agricultural, and wholesale customers. The company distributes liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) to residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, wholesale and automobile fuel customers; and provides logistics, storage, and other services to third-party LPG distributors. In addition, it engages in the retail sale of natural gas, liquid fuels, and electricity to approximately 10,800 residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Further, the company distributes natural gas to approximately 694,000 customers in eastern and central Pennsylvania counties through its distribution system of approximately 12,700 miles of gas mains; and supplies electricity to approximately 62,900 customers in northeastern Pennsylvania through 2,700 miles of lines and 14 substations. Additionally, it operates electric generation facilities; natural gas liquefaction, storage, and vaporization facility; propane storage and propane-air mixing stations; and rail transshipment terminals. It manages natural gas pipeline and storage contracts; develops, owns, and operates pipelines, gathering infrastructure, and gas storage facilities. UGI Corporation was incorporated in 1882 and is headquartered in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania.

Related stocks: SR (Spire Inc.) · NJR (NewJersey Resources Corporation) · BIPC (Brookfield Infrastructure Corpo) · MDU (MDU Resources Group, Inc.) · OGS (ONE Gas, Inc.)
Home Stocks UGI

Latest news

Latest News

MarketBeat18d agoEarnings
MarketBeat109d agoEarnings
AOL.com123d agoLegal
Quiver Quantitative102d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com102d ago
Marketscreener.com102d agoEarnings
Investing.com102d ago
Investing.com102d agoEarnings
Quiver Quantitative11d agoEarnings
Quiverquant.com11d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com11d agoEarnings
Investing.com Canada11d ago
Business Wire11d ago
Investing.com Canada11d agoEarnings
Investing.com110d ago
GuruFocus110d ago
Marketscreener.com110d agoMerger Acquisition
Kalkine Media110d ago
MarketBeat111d ago
Quiver Quantitative124d ago
Loading more...