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UGIUGI CorporationSell5.4·$34.70-0.43%
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UGI Corporation (UGI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Sell if holding. At $34.70, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

UGI Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution, storage, transportation, and marketing of energy products and related services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Utilities, Midstream & Marketing,... Read more

$34.70+6.1% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#2 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.63%
IncomeYield4.30%(5y avg 4.55%)Payout52.82%sustainable
Stop $33.00Target $36.83(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$43.33+24.9%3 analysts
$36.83our TP
$34.70price
$43.33mean
$46

Sell if holding. At $34.70, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.1%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.3
P/E (Fwd)10.4
Mkt Cap$7.5B
EV/EBITDA8.1
Profit Mgn8.7%
ROE12.3%
Rev Growth0.7%
Beta0.95
Dividend4.30%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.20bearish
IV54%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.7
Earnings Growth
3.3
GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $32.14Resistance $36.12

Price Targets

$33
$37
A.Upside+6.1%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UGI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $34.70, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $33.00. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UGI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.83 (+6.1% upside). Prior stop was $33.00. Stop-loss: $33.00.

What are the risks of investing in UGI?

Thin upside margin: 6.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Is UGI overvalued or undervalued?

UGI Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.3 (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UGI?

7 analysts cover UGI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $43.

What does UGI Corporation do?UGI Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution, storage, transportation, and marketing of...

UGI Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution, storage, transportation, and marketing of energy products and related services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Utilities, Midstream & Marketing, UGI International, and AmeriGas Propane. It distributes propane to approximately 801 million residential, commercial/industrial, motor fuel, agricultural, and wholesale customers. The company distributes liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) to residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, wholesale and automobile fuel customers; and provides logistics, storage, and other services to third-party LPG distributors. In addition, it engages in the retail sale of natural gas, liquid fuels, and electricity to approximately 10,800 residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Further, the company distributes natural gas to approximately 694,000 customers in eastern and central Pennsylvania counties through its distribution system of approximately 12,700 miles of gas mains; and supplies electricity to approximately 62,900 customers in northeastern Pennsylvania through 2,700 miles of lines and 14 substations. Additionally, it operates electric generation facilities; natural gas liquefaction, storage, and vaporization facility; propane storage and propane-air mixing stations; and rail transshipment terminals. It manages natural gas pipeline and storage contracts; develops, owns, and operates pipelines, gathering infrastructure, and gas storage facilities. UGI Corporation was incorporated in 1882 and is headquartered in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania.

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