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UGI Corporation (UGI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $37.17 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

UGI Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution, storage, transportation, and marketing of energy products and related services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Utilities, Midstream & Marketing,... Read more

$37.17+1.9% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#1 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
Stop $35.70Target $37.82(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$44.50+19.7%2 analysts
$37.82our TP
$37.17price
$44.50mean
$45

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $37.17 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.0
P/E (Fwd)11.1
Mkt Cap$8.1B
EV/EBITDA9.3
Profit Mgn8.2%
ROE12.5%
Rev Growth2.6%
Beta1.07
Dividend3.99%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.91bearish
IV46%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.75Resistance $38.46

Price Targets

$36
$38
A.Upside+1.7%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.9% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UGI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $37.17 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $35.70. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UGI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.82 (+1.9% upside). Prior stop was $35.70. Stop-loss: $35.70.

What are the risks of investing in UGI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is UGI overvalued or undervalued?

UGI Corporation trades at a P/E of 14.0 (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UGI?

6 analysts cover UGI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $45.

What does UGI Corporation do?UGI Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution, storage, transportation, and marketing of...

UGI Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution, storage, transportation, and marketing of energy products and related services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Utilities, Midstream & Marketing, UGI International, and AmeriGas Propane. It distributes propane to approximately 801 million residential, commercial/industrial, motor fuel, agricultural, and wholesale customers. The company distributes liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) to residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, wholesale and automobile fuel customers; and provides logistics, storage, and other services to third-party LPG distributors. In addition, it engages in the retail sale of natural gas, liquid fuels, and electricity to approximately 10,800 residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Further, the company distributes natural gas to approximately 694,000 customers in eastern and central Pennsylvania counties through its distribution system of approximately 12,700 miles of gas mains; and supplies electricity to approximately 62,900 customers in northeastern Pennsylvania through 2,700 miles of lines and 14 substations. Additionally, it operates electric generation facilities; natural gas liquefaction, storage, and vaporization facility; propane storage and propane-air mixing stations; and rail transshipment terminals. It manages natural gas pipeline and storage contracts; develops, owns, and operates pipelines, gathering infrastructure, and gas storage facilities. UGI Corporation was incorporated in 1882 and is headquartered in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania.

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